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Yole prediction paper: Sony will further increase the sensor quality advantage over the competition!

With the new A7rII Sony made a new step forward to increase their sensor quality advantage over the competition. And as soon as Sony will give us real 14bit RAW we will be able to squeeze out some more performance out of it! Yes that’s me again making some push on Sony 🙂

What can we expect from the future Sony sensor development? Pierre Cambou from Yole Development is sure Sony will increase the technological advantage over the competition:

“Yole forecasts that the CIS industry will reach $10B this year, with Sony remaining the undisputed world leader –mainly at image sensor level, but gaining strong momentum at camera module level too. And what will Sony’s $4B be used for? Probably to increase capacity, enhance R&D efforts, and further widen the gap between its competitors. It may also be used in applications that will generate a firm lead in automotive, and to develop sensing technologies for consumer and automotive applications. With this bold financing move, Sony is leveraging its leading technology position and demonstrating the confidence it has in its products, its technology, and its future.

Sony’s success story has or will have many consequences on the competition:
1) We already heard that Fuji will use a new Sony APS-C sensor on the X-PRO 2 which is rumored to be released in early 2016.
2) Nikon lost the exclusivity on new Sony FF sensors. I don’t know how Nikon will react to this
3) Also Pentax is rumored to use Sony sensor on their Pentax FF camera coming this fall.
4) Canon…yes Canon…what the heck will they do?

via MirrorlessRumors.

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74 Responses

  1. EXTRA EXTRA!!

    “Nikon lost the exclusivity on new Sony sensors. I don’t know how Nikon will react to this” Industry says: “When did they have exclusivity? Did Fuji not already use the same 5n/5r/5t sensor from Sony and just exchanged the CFA on it? Apple has been using Sony sensors for a while and Pentax too had Sony sensors for a while, at the same time as Nikon had Sony sensors. Some experts close to Nikon say: “How will we react to this? Well, do you have to be a child to think we will run like headless chickens? Apparently not. In the real world, businesses drive products that people need and we will focus on products markets need.”

    Avid SAR readers ask: “Is SAR sensationalist?” Journalists from the National Enquirer in the US and The Sun in the UK say: “NO!, Not yet. But we can smell some will to shake the beehive for no reason whatsoever. That is as close to sensationalist as we can see, so far” SAR asks: “Canon…yes Canon…what the heck will they do?” Lead phychiatrists at the Royal College of Psychiatrists answer that questions with: “What is the point of emotionally involving ourselves with a future that is more guess-timation than real estimation? Do we reflect the lack of strength in our choices through other company’s products? Can we not be who we want to be if our Honda doesn’t drive as their Audi? Is there more to taste? We recommend not caring. Quite simply, do as you wish to do and concern yourself with seeking professional help for Greener Grass Syndrome (GGS) It will not only improve your prospects of living a fuller life, but it can also improve your finances and maybe even your libido. Constant compare and contrast could lead to a loss in sexual self confidence and a lack of overall sexual life, even if you drive a Mercedes G Class. Other side effects of GGS include flatulence, nausea, skin rashes, illiteracy, divorce, hair loss, oral thrush, height loss, trauma, anxiety, insomnia, bruises, skin coloring, brittle nails, yellowing of teeth, red-eyes, dry eyes, blocked noses, post-nasal dripping, phlegm, cough, headaches, tinitus, acid reflux, constipation, tendonitis at any joint in the body or the perception that any, or all, of the above is happening because you use Sony and wonder what others use.”

    1. maybe SAR meant FF sensor exclusivity? previous only Nikon had the FF sensors, and now Pentax are getting them.. atleast thats how i read the statement

  2. 1) If that happens, my eyes will be back on Fuji. The X-Trans mess was the only reason for me, to skip on their otherwise very interesting camera system.

    2) It won’t change that much, I guess.

    3) No question, this Pentax FF with Sony sensor, Pentax-like build quality and DNG will be a dream camera. The question is: Will their FF lens lineup be convincing?

    4) Canon knows how to build SLR cameras. And they have managed to form one of the best (if not the best) lens portfolios in the market. They are and will be successful, despite the fact that their sensors are far behind Sony. But SAR is probably the wrong place to reach an understanding for this. And it is probably also a place, were you will never reach an understanding for the A-mount failure (despite the better sensors).

    1. I love to hear someone say ” A-mount failure ” that’s not something one hear’s every day, but it’s true that the A-mount is left to die by Sony, and that’s a big mistake from Sony IMO.

    2. 1) X-Trans is only the filter matrix used. It is rumored, that fuji will use Sony sensors with X-Trans matrix.
      4) That advantage in lineup only matters to a fraction of people in reality and that number is decreasing with more FE lenses coming out.

      1. 1) Yeah, my thoughts may be too good to be true. But isn’t the filter matrix an integral part of the sensor? I’m not an engineer, just wondering.

        4) “…a fraction of people…” … LOL

        1. I was also considering X-Pro2 but it is going to receive again X-Trans CAF so no buy for me because I really do not like X-Trans artifical colours and washy details. I hoped they put Bayer CAF, even same X-A1 has. So I am waiting for A7000.

        2. 1) Nope, its placed above the sensor, so it can be replaced, theoretically.

          4) 1/2 or 3/4 is still a fraction 😛
          But to be serious: which lenses is the current FE lineup missing, that most people – not just professionals – cannot do without? Also remember that Sony and Zeiss are constantly releasing new lenses.

          1. F2.8 zooms and more affordable primes… Also a consistent lineup at all levels. Eg lighter but slower Zeiss lenses like the 55/1.8 and 16-36, no compromise lenses like the 35/1.4 (with an aperture ring for primes) and affordable primes like the 28/2.

          2. As sensor quality improves the likelihood of affordable (cheap) primes and zooms diminishes. The older film era low cost lens designs are not up to the task, it makes no sense to cripple the performance of a high performance sensor with a mediocre lens.

          3. Technology is not standing still in lens design either….some of the new technolgies will actually result in cost savings too….so there will be and already are better cheaper lenses…for example the current 150-600mm class.
            Newer better zooms could also surpass todays primes in guality.
            And with bsi sensors we now see better performance on the older film lenses.
            More correction has been necessary because of issues with angle of incidence on digital lenses.
            That has resulted in bigger ,heavier, more expensive lenses with more element.
            When bsi becomes commonplace we may very well see a reversal of that trend.

          4. The quality has been improved dramatically in lenses of all price ranges. The tolerances on ultra cheap smartphone lenses for super tiny sensors are probably much tighter than for Leica lenses. Due to the tiny sensors , the resolution capabilities of these (super cheap) lenses equals a FF lens for a 60-70MP sensor. I know it’s not the same thing, but I’m sure you get the point.

            Just one example: The resolution of the Sigma Art lenses, the FF ones, and the cheap DN lenses for mirrorless (at least the 30mm and 60mm) as well, are among the best available today and light years ahead of any film era lens.

          5. Sigma Art Series are affordable but not cheap lenses being close in cost to Sony’s OEM designs, but are suitable for use on a modern high megapixel cameras. Sigma has not to my knowledge offered any Art series lenses for the full frame E-mount as yet. The DN lenses are for smaller sized sensors so they really aren’t relevant to this argument.

          6. Can’t say I agree there – I’ve had amazing results out of film era lenses on my a7ii. I know my Tokina 90/2.5 for instance would be very usable on the a7rii…

    3. X-trans sensors are already Sony’s sensors. They just put the X trans filter on top, so there is a great chance that the Xpro-2 will be an X-trans anyway. If you don’t like it before you won’t with the new one.

        1. Since Fuji don’ t have the ability to produce sensors they needed a thing to differentiate themselve from the rest of the crowd: X-trans.
          to answer your question above: no the filters are not integral part of the sensor.
          Actually, some people modified their camera by removing those filters themselves (mostly the UV’s one).

          1. Fuji differentiate themselves from the rest of the crowd pretty well by their neat camera designs and lens lineup. That kind of differentiation by filter matrix was superfluous. And if you ask me, it hurt their sales more than it helped.

          2. I’m agree with you about their design and lenses line-up (though I find them oddly hollow in hand) but I believe that many praise those rendering because it was made to mimic the rendering of former Fuji’s film (I think it’s the Velvia) that attract a lot of nostalgic customers and new ones.
            I’m just not one of them and will stick to the FF E-mount. Also the FE lenses line-up is pretty solid for a 1 and half year old one so nothing to envy to the X system so far.

    4. 1) X-trans has proven to be useless, but at this point it is too much of a marketing staple for Fuji, so I doubt they will let it go. Btw, same as you, that is what stopped me (mainly) from purchasing Fuji.
      2) Probably not. If it changes, it will only be for the worse.
      3) Completely agreed. The best DSLRs on the market are Pentax. However, they have a whole lineup to build for a market with two very strong competitors.
      4) Definitely the wrong place to reach a consensus; I disagree with your assessment of Canon. They know how to build DSLRs, but I don’t see anything that interesting; imho, Nikon and Pentax have them beaten in terms of bodies. For lenses, they simply have a broad portfolio, not necessarily the best. What is important to note, I believe, is that they are still making DSLRs, which leaves some breathing space for Sony, as mirrorless can rely on features unavailable on DSLRs. And they already showed us what kind of mirrorless they can come up with. I bet they can do better, but how much? I think they are relying too much on their market and mind share, but this can really get ugly very quick for them.
      As to the a-mount failure, that is a big discussion, but as much as Sony screwed up, they did fight valiantly. The camera market is not very flexible, given that people’s investments are locked into some mount.

    5. Canon, knows how to build an SLR, sure.

      But as the world moves towards mirrorless solutions, many of which are very quickly catching up to DSLR in terms of performance, Canon cannot afford to sit back and rely on traditional strengths.

      Canon is traditionally and primarily a camera company, but as the market moves towards cameras that rely more and more on electronics, Sony strengths will come to the fore here. Is being able to build a DSLR going to be enough?

      1. I suppose the real question is what happens to the pro market. The a7rii is inevitably going to convince more pros to part with their money I some sectors, especially in the wedding scene, but is that enough to make canon take mirrorless seriously?

    6. With the A7Rii Sony showed that they are willing to make cameras that can adapt to other system lenses. That should certainly scare Canon, even with their better lens ecosystem.

      1. I think Canon is very self confident due to their huge success. So, I guess they don’t be scared by anyone. But you can bet your a*s that they take Sony very serious.

  3. I have been expecting Sony to add production capacity soon for 2 reasons..one of course is the increased demand for sony sensors that exceeds current capacity…tje other reason is Quantum Thin Film technology…QTF…
    QTF has majpr light transmision advantages over silicon technolgy…not only can this greatly improve the performance of current cmos sensors, but it can allow desighns that without QTF would be too inefficeint to work.
    Althogh cmos manufacturing is current fully compatable with QTF a new manufacturing facility is necessary for the QTF portion of the manufacturing process.
    I am not just talking theory as I believe we may have recently seen the first patent that will use QTF.
    This desighn would not only benefit greatly from QTF, but it looks to me like it might not even work without QTF.
    I am talking about the Sony patent for a 3d pd, bsi, stacked , 4 layer sensor….no, not foveon like..
    The layers are
    Bayer color layer.
    Ist phase detect sensor layer
    White pixel layer
    2nd phase detect layer.
    Additional layers will include on sensor processing capacity.
    The multy level nature of the pd pixels will provide a level of speed and accuracy in autofocusing ..totally beyong anything currently available
    Tje white layer will be interpolated with the color layer to provide sensitivity and dynamic range far beyond what is possible today….and what will make this sensor even possible is the use of QTF which has greater than 95% light transmision in the visible spectro.
    Now I must clarify that this is NOT a rumor I have heard elswhere, and NOT a rumor told me by any source.
    This is my opinion based an actual published patents and scienyific papers, ast well as publicly avilble published info on meetingd and affiliation..in other words publicly available clues that you can track down yourself.
    I have simply put these clues together into what I think is the most probable reason for all thes seperate clues to exist.

    1. By the way…..
      The technology I just described is so far beyond dslr or dslt that there is absolutely no possible way the mirror will survive the introduction of this type of sensor.
      Way beyond in terms of autofocus speed and accuracy….dynamic range…low light sensetivity…processor speed.
      If Canon and Nikon do not seriosly commit to mirrorless soon they cannot possibly survive.
      I do expect to see that happen, because I am certain they know this and I am certain they want to survive.

      1. i thought yesterday we might see a return to tlr, with canikon
        ovf viewfinder as normal
        evf mounted to the side or above, when in live view its switchable between rear screen and evf.
        bigger and more expensive, but very cabable…

        1. So I could carry 2 …600mm lenses on my camera instead of one
          Or two bigv55mm f.9 lenses instead of one…not quite shure how thet would even fi on the camera…
          And ovf…where the image you see in the viewfinder simply does not look like what the sensor sees…your pictures may come out better than what you see or worse than what you see…depending on your luck….but the will never come out like what you see.
          I am 100% certain we will not see tlr from Sony..I do not know what Canon might do but tlr would definitely not be what I expect.

          1. i didnt mean like tlr in that way, more twin viewfinder, so ovf like normal dslr, and then a evf as well mounted somewhere.
            so u get the advantages of normal slr design, and that of the evf…

          2. Both slr…mirrors… and optical viewfinders are obsolete remnents of the film camera era…they were developed for film cameras and woluld not even have been built if digital imaging were developed first.
            There are no advantages to dslr or ovf overr the future mirrorless technology…some will still cling to it as some still cling to film

  4. “Nikon lost the exclusivity on new Sony sensors. I don’t know how Nikon will react to this”

    This is completely untrue….Sony clearly described their strategy couple of months back and very clearly stated they are making exclusive sensors for some other companies and for some internal Sony teams…..

    PS It actually seems most if not all Nikon sensors are exclusive modifications that are better than any other variant in one or more characteristics.

    1. If Sony continues this trend of producing superior sensors and widens the technological gap with competitors the Sony sensor will become ubiquitous. This will eventually lead to Canon using Sony sensors and will negate the biggest advantage Nikon currently has over Canon. What happens then is anyone’s guess.

      1. That will probably happen. But it’s not good for us. Competition is good. I rather like to see two or more strong competitors.

  5. Read the original article and look at the graph from mirrorless rumors. The increase in production is not from DSLRs or ILCs. I think you missed the point here, it’s about production volume as a whole and not about Sony camera domination.

  6. “Proactively invest in production capacity to meet customer demand”

    They should help the folks on Zeiss with that, pretty sure that they are delaying new announcements on the Batis line-up due to high demand.

  7. So far it’s obvious that Canon still sees mirrorless as a side show. If Sony can nail low light af performance with adapted lenses and improve the native lens lineup, that could leave canon high and dry. The problem is the longer they leave it, the longer it’ll take them to get through the teething problems…

  8. Sensor quality can only drive sales so far. Already Canon (who has the biggest share of voice) is convincing people that a a great sensor with “non pro” service, infrastructure, support, and accessory systems means a “no pro” system.

    They are having some success at it.

    1. Canon seems desperate to me.
      They are posting article after article saying dnamic range is not important…or saying how to use shadow recovery so Canon really does have more dynamic range…while ignoring the fact that other sensor can also do that.
      But Canon can only play dress up for so long and will sooner or later have to find a way to match Sony performance……Hasselblad used thier excellent reputation to build expensive dress up cameras….but that can only last so long before it has to end.
      Canon can for awhile convince thier users that thier cameras are better, no matter how much better Sony becomes…but only for a while.
      Canon’s age of undisputed dominence is over…it is now being disputed.
      If the want to continue that domminence they will have to make every product competitive, not just a competitive system.

      1. Every company plays down the disadvantages of their own products. That’s business as usual, not desperation.

        1. At some point what can now be described as business as usual becomes desperation.
          Make no mistake….the a7rii scares the heck out of Canon….and if Sony does follow throgh with serous attemps to dominate the market that fear will certainly grow.
          Up till now Sony really has not attempted to control the market and has been content with 3rd place.
          Sony has clearly indicated thier intention to change that….this is very differrent from what Sony has done in the past and it will be exciting to see this all play out.

          1. Doubt that very seriously. Canon isn’t an American company. It doesn’t always use the American business model. It has been down this very same road before. This is just the first inning of

          2. On the money. The reason I haven’t bought the a7rii yet (aside from saving up for an upcoming trip to cambodia where I will take thousands of photos with my perfectly competent a7ii) is knowing that sony’s next cam will be *even better*. A scary thought, especially if you’re a Canon or Nikon exec. I’d hate to be either right now. .

          3. Csnnon will be pk, but at some point they will have to bite the bullet and use Sony sensors in thier high end cameras.
            Canon still builds good cameras but the sensor gap is increasing and I do not think Canon sensors will ever catch up.

        1. Every empire carries with it the seeds of it’s own destruction.
          Canon is firmly entrenced in dslr technology and less than state of the art sensors.
          DSLR will fall very soon, and unless Canon adapts they will fall with it.
          Read my lengthy post about the new Sony 3d sensor, QTS, and the immenent demise of dslr.

      1. you mean “second rate SENSOR- performance”, right? Otherwise it wouldn’t make sense.

        Maybe that means, sensor performance is not the most important feature for professionals. Now is that? Why do spend professionals $5k on a 1Dx if they can have better sensor performance for far less from Canon or other brands? There is a reason for that. Rational reasons which make sense business wise, and not because they want to fondle their expensive gear like most amateurs do.

        1. At assignments that pay decently I see more Phase Ones or HBs then 1Dx&5Dx combined; with D8x0s being in pole position.
          Ironically pro service becomes quite pointless when the daily rental (not to mention talent&crew) budget eclipses the total cost of for example a 1Dx…

    2. Maybe people are starting to realize that the whole “Pro” banner Canon loves to wave is basically not the least bit relevant to the consumers who buy their consumer cameras.

      And most “pros” that use camera equipment aren’t a part of any “pro” service. Take wedding and portrait photographers for example. They probably make up 85% of “pros” using $2K to $4K cameras and I haven’t ever met one who was a part of that elite “pro” service.

      Sony rolling out their upgraded “pro” concierge service is like a dentist buying into a suburban country club. They hope the status will trickle down. But as was excellently pointed out by Robert Martinu, when genuinely high-end photography is being done, just like film production, the equipment is usually budgeted for and rented.

      I don’t know what Canon is convincing anyone of right now, to be completely honest. And it’s not me being a fanboy. If I shot more paid photography I’d get a D810 in a second. If I had the money to fully stoke my photography hobby I’d buy the a7r II and all the Zeiss glass.

      Without legacy glass owners Canon would be darn near irrelevant right now. Even their C300 mk II is *twice* the price of the FS7- and feature for feature it’s a draw at best for Canon. That is when it comes out (presumably) in the fall, a year after the FS7.

      Fueled by arrogance they’ve crippled their products to the point of being thought of as a company that used to be great. The C100 mk II at $5,500 still shoots in 8-bit 1080P (but now at 60 FPS). What?! haha. The FS-100, released 4 years ago, and still available for $2,500 is technically just as good (I’d argue better) than the C100 mk II.

      I’ve always bought the best product, f— the brand (that’s why I’ve been shooting with Sony DSLR/T’s for 5 years), but Canon, since 2010 has acted like such an arrogant brat, that I actually feel emotionally anti-Canon. Which is a strange thing for me.

  9. I think, both, Bayer and X-Trans are compromises and they have both advantages and disadvantages. So, the IQ is not the problem for me.

    The problem I have with X-Trans is fundamental. It is a locked down, proprietary technology, that will be incompatible with any software in 10 or 20 years. This applies also to most other RAW file formats, but if these files contain the wide spread Bayer pattern data, they can be converted to DNG. And DNG with Bayer pattern content will most likely survive (software-compatibility- wise) until I bite the dust.

    The content of the RAW file is my property and it is unacceptable that these data depend on a proprietary technology that only exist, just because the manufacturer wants to differentiate himself from the competition. There is no technical reason for any manufacturer to have their own RAW format. File formats should be open, or at least compatible in a long term.

  10. It depends on the numbers I suppose… We’ll almost certainly at an a99ii, but I suspect disappointing sales will be used to justify not making an a99iii.

    1. I don’t think Sony will ever announce the end of the A-mount in any official capacity, anytime soon. As this will come across as a negative press, that’s the last thing they’d want to have to deal with at this time.

  11. Sony, forget about sensors and small camera bodies for a second and give us a big body with dual card slots, no overheating issues and more, bigger controls since it seems they’re not going to do something about A-mount anyways (which is a real shame)

    And because some E-mount lenses aren’t that small anyways (and it seems upcoming fast lenses wouldn’t be small neither), it wouldn’t hurt them to forget about focus-by-wire and finally copy the SSM design from A-mount. Mechanical Coupling is a must for videographers that use follow focus, and even though I don’t do a lot of video, fine tuning focus on E-mount lenses is a hate-hate relationship. DMFocusing on E-mount lenses is troublesome specially since there is no instant feedback about what you’re doing with the focus ring.

  12. Which doesnt exclude their own cameras. As we have seen before with the selling numbers of A7 line, dont get me wrobg, but denying the facts is not the way to go how to understand the graphs and charts

  13. Rumors, when SAR isn’t responsible for them, are passed along with an almost implied SR5 stamp (see below). But, when (in the past) SAR had a rumor, not only were some legitimate rumors not even published, but an SR3 rating was standard. You have to respect your sources by portraying rumors as rumors– if you also want to be respected.

    “We already heard that Fuji will use a new Sony APS-C sensor on the X-PRO 2 which is rumored to be released in early 2016.”

    1. Chrome is one of the biggest data miners ever, and it poses as a browser. Tech newbs and the uninformed think it’s great without a clue that they’re giving away everything they input into their browser.

      Firefox is highly configurable and more mature than Chrome. Not perfect, but no browser is. Much easier to lock down.

      Internet Explorer is used by senior citizens and the mentally handicapped (no offense to either group). It’s also a data miner but your data is going to Microsoft, so they not only don’t know how to use it, but they’ll probably end up getting it stolen from them.

      Don’t compare web browsers and camera brands.

  14. The presentation posted- albeit a self-serving one- is about sensor sales from the commercial division of Sony.
    Yet comments here make it seem like this is the consumer electronic imaging division, and compares consumer camera products of Sony with that of the competition.
    Two completely separate lines of business. And ones whose goals do not necessarily coincide.
    The commercial line is happy to sell sensors to everyone- the more the better. The consumer line doesn’t get to dictate to the commercial line what to do. The consumer line doesn’t get to say “no exclusivity to Nikon.” That’s all contract stuff, all negotiable.
    And we don’t even know if “no exclusivity” is fact or what it really means, since none of us know what the contractual relationships are.

  15. I speak highly of a company when I like what they are doing, and poorly of a company when I do not like what they are doing…whether it is Sony, Canon, Nikon or someone else.
    I do not like the camera because I bought it…
    I bought the camera because I like it…!!!!

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