It’s now 2 years we keep reading rumors about Canon launching a High End mirrorless system. The last one comes (again) via Northlight Images. I guess sooner or later those rumors will be inevitably become true 🙂
I have no reliable info yet but I don’t think Canon will launch such a camera at Photokina as claimed by NL. I am actually pretty sure they will not do it. Canon not even has launched enough lenses for their current EOS-M system. Nope, this rumor is likely to not be true and we will have to wait 2-3 years more before Canon goes really “serious” on mirrorless!
found via Canonwatch.
26 Responses
What is the right question: Why should they go FF mirrorless or why should they not?
Pro:
– Increase the competition against Sony FE mount
Con:
– Don’t build further on the impression that dslr is a dying species. (Its their second largest camera genre after compacts). Canibalism might frighten some Canon customers over to Sony when they feel pushed to go mirrorless. Due to the difference in market share that might mean more customers lost then won. Sony might increase a lot from Canons choise.
– It will be very expensive R&D if they choose to reduce focal flange distance. A whole new lens series, maybe plus an adapter to EOS-EF mount.
– Canon may have a hard start because they have a lot to prove on mirrorless AF speed, viewfinder, lens selection and more.
Canon have smart engineers. They must know that mirrorless is only a matter of time (just like solid state storage replaced mechanical disc drives). DSLR technology lacks critical focus ability (due to calibration error), and is more expensive. Optical viewfinders are severely restricted in size, while EVFs will allow for incredible levels of magnification. Canon is not going to sit there and deprecate.
And they have to pursue full frame, if not they are ceding this important market to Sony and Leica.
My guess is that Canon has all technology ready, and is waiting until EVF and AF performance exceeds that of its DSLRs. Nevertheless, it seems that Leica is already there, and Sony will be there within 12 months, so they are starting to run behind.
If Canon engineers “know” that, they are soothsayers, not engineers or just terribly wrong. If their bosses would listen to such nonsense they will steer the company the same way Kodak did.
Mirrorless are complementing, not replacing dslr. Storage is not comparable technologies even now as hdd and ssd currently complements each other.
EVF will never get as high resolution then OVF. EVF will never be as responsive as OVF. EVF will never draw as little power as OVF. EVF have other strengths, but will never be better in every aspect. Thats why there will remain a market for DSLR, complementing mirrorless. One size doesn’t fit all. Just ask your car dealer or clothing store, binocular dealer or camera dealer if you think so.
Hm, I think that you’re not very optimistic about mirrorless.
EVF : one day, the lag will be considered as negligible for almost every use, the battery drain will be very low. Maybe DSLR battery will still last longer, but in terms of usability, once mirrorless will reach the 600-800 shots, it’s done. And they have (like you said) far other strengths : very high magnification in small bodies and with no bulky pentaprism, ability to magnify focus (and this 2 points cancel yours about the resolution), ability to add (or not) a lot of informations, to preview the exposure, the white balance, maybe one day the real dynamic range, etc, etc.
The AF-S is still reached by mirrorless. AF-C in good light seems pretty usable now. Only AF-C in low light still lags behind DSLR. And I don’t mention the area covered by AF, high end DSLR are already miles behind mirrorless for that point.
I don’t say that your list is wrong, I think that it will become negligible very soon regarding the advantages for the real use of the cameras.
The first CCD sensors had a ridiculous resolution (far less than the best films), a ridiculous dynamic range (it has been reached by digital not to long ago) and strange colors. But the advantages have become obvious year after year. I think that it will be the same with mirrorless vs DSLR…
It’s the same story for medium format cameras, they were once the norm. They still have their advantages, but they are a nich product now.
Only time will tell, but I bet that all the advantages of mirrorless will soon far exceed their shortcomings, and that their shortcomings will became far less uncomfortable than few years ago (or now). And yes, I believe that for 99% of the photo world, they will totally replace DSLR.
edit : And I’m a proud DSLR owner with a lot of investment in the same system, because DSLR is still the best answer to my needs for now. But I can bet that in 5 or 10 years there will be absolutely no mirror anymore on my cameras…
I remember when live view first came to DSLR’s, most thought it was a joke, “If I wanted to shoot like a P&S I’d get a P&S” was a common reply, fast forward a few years, it’s a treasured feature to many photographers, especially to those that use a tripod.
I see that same reaction to mirrorless cameras.
Evf blows away ovf.
It shows what the camera sees, not what the lens sees…so you actually know what your picture will look like.
Not so sure. The EVF does not synchronize reality as good as an OVF. Either way, OVF & exposure compensation or EVF need quite a bit of experience, with the exception that an OVF is always the same while EVF in low light start to be unsteady. From my experience with Oly and Sony I did not know exactly what the picture will look like, at least not relevantly better than from my experience with an OVF. Besides, OFVs do not blind the user in the dark. I do not see a technically obvious advantage with the EVFs, it is a matter of taste IMHO.
OVF’s don’t synchronize with the reality on your screen either. This is the advantage of the EVF (not to mention other great features like focus peaking, gain increase to actually see in the dark that would be just black looking through an OVF).
Especially when the battery runs out because of it. An OVF can be used all day without depleting the battery.
I prefer to see what the lens is seeing and not watching a monitor all day. And i use also mirrorless with EVF(Fuji).
Carry a few spare batteries? With all the weight/space savings from mirrorless, you’ll have plenty of room for them.
People said the same things about rangefinders vs SLR viewfinders. Guess which one got relegated to a small niche?
DSLR is dying.
Canon can plan accordingly or be caught unprepared when it happens.
Make no mistake though…Sony is playing hardball now.
You can be sure they have been investigating mirrorless cameras for a long while within the R&D lab, they’re not completely blind, they probably had a FF long before Sony did, they just chose to release nothing, except that lame attemp M1 and its siblings.
I think reality shows your theory is likely not true. The EOS-M is VERY rough around the edges, and doesn’t scream “we’ve been working on this for years”. It feels like they rushed it to production to put out a mirrorless camera more for goodwill, that they too are on the cutting edge of tech. But really, its just a sub par Oly E-P5… let alone the bigger sensor competitors. If Canon had been working for years earlier on a FF mirrorless cam, I think some of that DNA would have been shared with the EOS-M. Clearly, this isn’t the case.
I’m talking about technical proofs of concepts, not finished cameras, which are very different things, not to mention we don’t know how polished Canon wanted the camera to be.
My guess is that Canon has all technology ready, and is waiting until
EVF and AF performance exceeds that of its DSLRs. Nevertheless, it seems
that Leica is already there, and Sony will be there within 12 months,
so they are starting to run behind
Do you have sources like a comparison video on youtube, that shows Leica’s AF beats the Sony’s one?
The fear of canibalism, don’t do anything, and potential sales go to Sony/Fuji/Olympus/Panasonic, or do produce a competitive mirrorless and get some of those sales back, IOW’s it’s better to have a division within your company steal sales from the DSLR group than for another company to do it.
Sabotaging your own mirrorless product to save DSLR sales is just plane stupid, if they can’t compete against their own mirrorless offerings with out handicapping them, then DSLR’s are truly doomed.
I am expecting Canon to do it this year.
Here is my bet:
1) Canon releases this serious APS-C mirrorless camera, that is more like a “Nikon DF” looking one. It is their serious body to start. It would have inners like Canon 6D.
2) Phase two is that Canon will release 5D III, 7D Mk 2 and 1D mirrorless variants.
The same bodies, mirror removed, large EVF (0.84x) and basically otherwise same.
3) Phase three is that Canon will shrink the bodies in next 2-5 years in the lower-end models like 7D Mk 3 and 5D VI.
And in phase three level Canon releases totally new sensors.
you can keep all the lenses and all the additional parts but just lose the mirror.
4) Phase four, Canon ownes the mirrorless market!
Or they chicken out for another year and release another half assed attempt at mirrorless.
I’ve always been a Canon shooter, I love the feel of Canon bodies in my hand, just feels natural, if they really decide to complete, I think it will be a hybrid camera, something like the GH4, it will resemble a DSLR but will be mirrorless, possibly a Pellical OVF with an LCD overlay.
So far the EOS M series are toy cameras, sure they can do serious photography, but they don’t look or feel like a serious camera, they sure don’t focus like a serious camera.
Phase 2 will only happen if the demand is there, I don’t see that happening till they get serious about mirrorless…. I’d love a mirrorless with 1D build quality, great ergonomic feel, responsive, weather proof, and FF.
Phase 3, new sensors, like the 50MP? Canon has to update their fab process to compete with Sony, till they do that, they will always be a step behind.
Phase 4, Canon needs to do a lot for that to happen, if they do get serious, you can bet that Sony, Nikon, and Pentax will up their game.
So in 5 years they could produce a model about on par with the one year old samsung nx1. Cool!
You point to the fact that there are no ff mirrorless lenses for a new Cannon ff mirrorless
Nothing could be further from the truth because Canon also has a new adapter that will make all current canon lenses work on the new mirrorless camera.
By that same logic however Sony E mount has an even bigger lens selection.
Sony is playing hardball.
I think that the M4 needs to be a more advanced camera, the M10 can continue the style of the M3, the M4 should be along the lines of the GX1, but with a lens mount and EVF.
I think that the M4 needs to be a more advanced camera, the M10 can continue the style of the M3, the M4 should be along the lines of the GX1, but with a lens mount and EVF.
i want G5X body with 10% bigger than and more control dial & button that is real all mirrorless competitor.
🙂
Canon are already serious about mirrorless… They said so 😉
And Samsung will be market leaders by 2015….