Screenshot of the “stupid” predition from 247wallst.
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247wallst (Click here) predicts that Olympus will disappear in 2014. Now , honestly, I can’t understand why this BS is floating around the web almost every year. It’s now the fourth or fifth time I heard from analysts saying that Olympus will close the coming year. That “prediction game” is so old that it’s likely that the only thing that disappeared are some of these financial analyst guys 🙂
link found via TheOnlinephotographer.
Addendum: By the way, two months ago I read plenty of reports about the coming European winter being one of the coldest in history. Guess what, it’s hot as hell here and no snow anywhere (expect on higher mountains). This is just to say how much people wants to spread news just for the sake to get viral 🙂
194 Responses
About the winter in Europe, yes it its not freezing by today, but the winter is not over yet. We’ll have to see, if we believe the forecast or not.
Today Its like 10 degrees outside, and gray clouds everywhere. Notting interesting to capture.So actually i hope there will be winter days.
over here (western europe) november and december have been record months – almost twice as much sunshine and much warmer than usual – but also a very large quantity of rainfall and wind – up to 150km/h.
Not complaining overall, but we have had some storm damage on several occasions – which is very untypical.
Meanwhile north america was plunged in much colder than usual weather, -30deg C and less in Canada.
The past few years have shown increasingly “extreme” weather conditions worldwide.
We had all time record low in Montreal a couple days ago. Weather was completely retard.
Just because you don’t like the analysis does not make it stupid! There is significant chatter all over the photo world about Oly photo assets potentially being sold in 2014. I don’t think the Olympus name will go away though, but maybe something more like the Pentax name still existing under the Ricoh corporate banner could happen. That is certainly possible. Time will tell but calling it stupid is, well….
Yes the chatter goes one for almost a decade now. I say it’s stupid because if you make the same call every year and every year you are wrong that you are not a reliable analyst. Or don’t you think so?
Reliable and analyst sounds an oxymoron to me. Ask any hedge fund.
Lol. I certainly agree with the fact that Olympus camera division is struggling. But It does so for years now and Olympus stated many times that for them the camera division is important also for the medical business. Plus their OMD strategy seems to work out for once. And than there is that partnership with Sony. They now have access to all best Sony sensor tech.
So dear analysts, try to look at the bigger picture instead of pure numbers…
But if you look at it from the Sony perspective, Oly has two very desirable things – 5 axis IBIS and one that can’t be copied, a much higher level of lens design expertise. That might make it desirable for Sony to acquire those assets rather than partner for them. Time will tell.
@Jay Stellar
“Just because you don’t like the analysis does not make it stupid!”the analysis is deeply flawed, biased and timed to distract from the latest Japaneses BCN figures which show Canikon in a bad light.
“There is significant chatter all over the photo world about Oly photo assets potentially being sold in 2014.” How much was Reuters paid again and again?
” I don’t think the Olympus name will go away though, but maybe something more like the Pentax name still existing under the Ricoh corporate banner could happen. That is certainly possible.”possible but unlikely in the extreme, more chance of the Nikon name existing under the Olympus corporate banner.
“Time will tell but calling it stupid is, well….”vague as vague.
Nikon name existing under Olympus – now that truly is absurd
… = stupid!
@YouDidDidn’tYou I see that you are having time to engage in discussions again, so why not finally respond to the questions I raised three weeks ago (http://www.43rumors.com/olympus-forecast-says-they-will-return-to-profit/comment-page-1/#comment-2828542), as you promised (at http://www.43rumors.com/japan-these-are-the-most-sold-cameras-in-2013/comment-page-1/#comment-2838506)? You were very quick to call Thom’s article “unbelievably flawed” and yet seem to be very slow to back that up – I don’t think that is good style. If you publicly criticise some so strongly it should be easy to substantiate those criticisms…
Do you seriously think that Sony can afford to buy all of Olympus? Its market capitalisation is $12B+, even with their existing stake they couldn’t afford to purchase all of Olympus.
I said nothing about all of Olympus. I clearly indicated photographic assets – where did I say anything about ALL of Olympus. Please stop reading things into what is written – read what is actually written. Olympus, if sold, in my opinion, would likely be split into two parts, the medical part and the photo part.
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/05/point-shoot-collapse-why-big-camera-companies-are-the-next-blackberry/
“You’re talking about a 10-15% decline in DSLR shipments all over the world.Which is kind of shocking because that market’s been growing double digit for almost 10 years,” said Chris Chute, market intelligence firm IDC’s research director of worldwide digital imaging.
According to Chris Chute’s research the rate of market decline is accelarating each quarter – with global shipments of all digital cameras falling 36.2% to 19.2 million units in the 2nd quarter alone and interchangeable lens cameras including DSLRs falling 10.9& to just 4 million units shipped. Canon sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2% and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.
“Nikon recently said thye have a 5 year plan to address this. And my view is , that 5 year plan should have come out 5 years ago,” Mr. Chute said.
“They’re(Nikon) not going to be around in 5 years.”
Lens design better than Sony’s current partner Zeiss?
Hardly. In your dreams, maybe.
No, please read what I wrote! I said lens designers better than Sony. I said nothing about Zeiss. You made an assumption…
Olympus has produced notable optics, for example, certain FT lenses are considered second to none. Every lens-maker has introduced their share of not-so-good lenses, as well as better-than-average ones.
Also, products in different marketing strata are difficult to compare in any meaningful way. Has Zeiss offered competitive mFT lenses? Has Olympus made lenses for Nikon DSLR’s? If you know how to measure the differences unambiguously, that would be truly impressive.
But I’m not holding my breath waiting to hear…
The edge sharpness of 16-70mm f4 Zeiss lens for NEX get owned by Olympus 14-54ii.
http://peterfraileyphoto.blogspot.tw/2013/11/sony-e-16-70-f4-part-3-not-as-sharp-as.html
Sony has a 10% share in Olympus, which they got mostly because of Olympus was not able to obtain money for its normal operations for a while. That situation has been solved now, and unlike Sony, Olympus as a whole is posting a profit.
Not saying the things you suggest are impossible, but they aren’t very likely either.
Admin- I see this mixed. To me the issue is not that Olympus has been predicted to shut down the camera division- but that the losses has been consistent year per year. That can only end one way. Does it mean now? That I agree seems weird for them to be so categorical about.
As for Sony- I don’t know why so many act as if Sony was trying to help Olympus out of charity- make no mistake- Sony is a business and they are interested in Olympus as long as it works for them. They are not going to go “out of their way” to pour cash/whatever to keep Olympus afloat (this really isn’t directed at your comment admin since you just mentioned the sensor partnership).
All that said, I would be pretty surprised if Olympus’ camera division was shut down this year.
Analysts are not meant to be reliable. Putting out wrong forecasts for companies to beat or miss them from time to time is common practice on Wall st. If you put out correct forecasts all the time, you are not a high-profile analyst. Hedge fund analysts don’t usually publish their “correct” researches as most of them are for internal usage.
Well Admin, what these analysts do, is quite similar to rumor business, you are running here. What you post, is based on what you have heard, what you know, and what you feel in the guts. Same for analysts. Have ou ever posted a stupid rumor?
Well, analysts have studied and get paid to be “scientific” in their way of thinking. A rumor site is by far not a science.
That economics and finance are science, is the biggest lie they want us to believe. They don’t have a clue.
See how they drove the whole world into financial crisis (and they were not able to predict it), and how they are managing it to get us out.
If anything, economics seems to be able to do a decent postmortem analysis…
Then why don’t you get a clue about the world financial system to prevent it from downfalls instead of bulling it around a photography forum? Blaming the whole financial system is such a common thing among Main Street, but no one has ever since stepped up to do anything.
Srsly?!
There where warnings all over the Place. But what difference does it make when Politicians only do politics for who pays best?
True, but the comment “This is just to say how much people wants to spread news just for the sake to get viral” is still pretty funny on a rumor site.
Well even a broken clock is right two times a day so one of these years they just might be right 😉
Jay Steller:
Broken clocks and financial analysis speculation literally has nothing in common.
This is a very common saying in the USA when somebody that is usually wrong comes up with something that is right. It is just a saying, not to be taken literally.
I see, thank you for the explanation.
both are up for repairs or replacement…
“…no-one wants to be in the camera business anymore…”
did they talk to any of the CEO’s, product or sales managers, engineers from any of the camera brands to get to this conclusion?
I think plenty people want to be in this business. Things are changing rapidly, old technology getting replaced with new, digital photography really coming into its own, and offering a substantially new experience.
i you ask me, financial analysts are trolls.
Exactly. And what is with Samsung?
They try really hard to actually get IN the camera business.
“Yes the chatter goes one for almost a decade now.”
Few more years, and they would beat the record of the Apple’d “down-spiral”. 🙂
Who was that guy at ZDNet who was every year for a decade+ predicting that Apple is going to die and disappear next year?
You’re probably thinking of John Dvorak, although Rob Enderle and Paul Thurrott are other favorite tech writers who’ve been predicting the imminent demise of Apple since somewhere in the 2002 era, at least. None are analysts, but they’re in the same category. Here’s an ongoing amusing list of predictions, most of which have been proven spectacularly wrong by history: http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/death_knell
Olympus is not Apple, of course, but the analogy of incompetent analysts pulling things out of their ass and trying to pass it off as if it is meaningful is the same.
Half the time I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it was an attempt at a stock scam–why, after all, would you publish free knowledge to help other people invest? Why not instead try to drive the stock price down of a company you expected to do well, then buy when it was at the bottom before people realized you were full of crap?
Those idiots… Enderle, Thurott and their ilk… were at it for years before 2002. Try the mid-90s, if not earlier.
Dvorak, while a bit less of an idiot, admitted that he wrote negative stories about Apple because he knew he’d get plenty of web site hits from rabid Mac fans. Apple was an easy target.
I see parallels with all these “Olympus is doomed” stories.
Certainly, there were tech pundits galore preaching the imminent demise of Apple from the mid and even early ’90s, but I was talking about specific citations for the three I mentioned that I could find, which only go back through about a decade of blatant wrongness. It’s certainly possible that any or all of the three were spouting nonsense earlier and the articles just aren’t online, of course.
Believe me, they were. I’ve using Macs since 1985 and remember inflammatory articles by Dvorak about mice, GUIs, etc., in MacWorld, from back then. Enderle and Thurott came later. Dvorak looked like Einstein compared to them! Please don’t ask for verbatim quotes, there’s lots of blur between then and now. 😉
It’s stupid when people try to use the Apple analogy… Apple had an influx of cash, then strung together nothing but hits. Then they had the iPod, then iPhone and of course, the iPad. Nothing but home runs.
Olympus has the OMD and that’s it. They have more cameras that aren’t selling, compared to the 2 that are.
What did apple have that didn’t sell besides the iCube? Nothing. Everything sells.
Olympus WISHES it was Apple.
I thought Steve Job’s NeXT was also a failure, though its OS was the ancester of the current iOS and OSX.
Of course Olympus isn’t Apple, and I at least wasn’t trying to imply in any way that they were. What I (and I assume others) was pointing out is that tech pundits and “expert analysts” have a long and storied track record of being vastly, provably wrong about major things relating to what is ostensibly their area of expertise, so it’s foolish to pay attention to anything they say. They might be correct, they might not, but if they are, it’s almost certainly not due to any foresight or analytic capability, just dumb luck.
The long line of analysts and pundits publishing stories on the imminent demise of Apple during the ’90s and ’00s when about as opposite as is conceivably possible happened is only being cited because it’s such a conspicuous example.
In another thread I pointed out the many analyst reports in the late ’00s, (I found one as late as 2010 being sold for $4200) claiming that Netbooks would continue to expand and dominate the computing market, going as far as to prognosticate specific, large numbers in millions of netbooks shipped. When, of course, the exact opposite happened, and they’re functionally a dead product category now. Further, the companies doing well selling the tablets that killed the netbook are for the most part not the same companies that were wildly successful selling netbooks just three or four years ago.
The point, again, being that analysts are pretty much just making things up, if they’re not actively lying as part of a stock scam like Jim Cramer, Charles Payne, et al. Their actual business model involves convincing gullible people they have some idea what they’re talking about when, in fact, they provably don’t past dumb luck.
apple TV…
Actually, technically, the last time they gave any hard figures was a few months ago when they said they sold 6 or 7 million ATVs in the last year. Which is relatively minor by the standards of a company the size of Apple, but most companies would be pretty excited to sell 6 million streaming set top boxes in a year, so it doesn’t really count as a failure, either.
On the other hand Olympus every year say they will return to profit or sell x cameras and never make it either, so it remains to be seen whether the analysts or Olympus will be right at the end. Obviously, what at least some analyst ignore is that fact that Japanese corporations work in slightly different ways to western ones… So I am not saying Olympus will go away but if you call the analysts who predict that stupid maybe you should also call Olympus stupid for making the same wrong predictions every year?
Can you show us where this analyst published this same prediction every year over the last decade? I’m interested to see it. If what you say is correct this would indicate he is very smart because he has been on a decade long paid holiday. Nice work indeed!
From a purely business standpoint, it might not be so far fetched. However, Olympus as a whole is doing much better, so they have a little more flexibility. If anything the scandal gives them a little more time to return to profitability, as long as they can show a continued decrease in losses.
If they can get their prices down, and keep making better cameras like the E-P5 and E-M1 they have a fighting chance. I think this entry level OM is critical for them. If they can get his thing to perform like the E-M5, with a few improved tweaks, and price it more in line with a Canon or Nikon entry level they might just break the barrier that is the Canikon machine.
Well regardless of agreeing with it or not, the research shows that the so called analyst (lets just be truthful and call them a blogger) is merely parroting information from camera sales numbers, probably totally unaware of what either of these companies do in detail.
The Olympus business is far more than camera’s and is a profitable entity, the rub is that even if the imaging division is not profitable, the imaging research that happens in the camera business is used in the medical imaging division. And regardless the camera division is returning to profitability. The only reason Olympus has not been in the black up until now is that it has had a lot of one time payments to settle the scandal related lawsuits. That is over now and Olympus are back on into the black.
But now, lets take a look at one of his proclaimed “survivors”, Nikon. Nikon is on a smaller market capitalisation ($7.6B) (the market thinks that the company is worth less) than Olympus ($10.74B) and this company is primarily dependant on camera sales with a smaller amount of revenue coming form photolithography steppers where it competes against ASML, Intel, Canon and others. Nikon is losing against Canon in volume and profits in the professional camera market and in the pro-consumer market it is losing ground to Panasonic, Olympus, Sony and others. In the low end of that business it is losing out to smart phones and has no avenue to compete on that market in the same way that Samsung or Sony can.
I think we can all rest assured that Olympus will continue to offer us the fantastic camera’s and lenses it has to date and that these uneducated “WallSt24/7” boofheads will eat humble pie. Ask yourself, if these people are such good analysts, why are they writing blogs instead of working at investment firms with real money or at least getting some money for their so-called research.
This article is stupid, no one with any critical thinking should think that you can write about a whole company’s operations, product analysis, profitability and stock performance in one paragraph.
Trusting them is even more stupid.
I went to shoot a public event on New Years Day…..a well known Polar Bear Swim…very visual event..There were maybe 4 or 5 press photographers there. Articles ran in the local papers, and The (Newark) Star Ledger, The Washington Post, etc…OK…so there were about 5 press photographers there..and maybe two serious video guys there…Then there was me, with my MFT kit..and “maybe” 5 other serious photo enthusiasts (maybe)…I.saw no other DSLR’s other than the press photographers…maybe one or two mirrorless cameras ….just a couple of sophisticated P&S cameras..maybe five. EVERYONE else there (a few thousand people), were using their cell phones to take photos of the event for their friends and family.. EVERYONE else. I really noticed it. I was amazed. I stood out…standing there with 2 (small) cameras shooting the event.
I think the the camera manufacturers are in for a big change…The general public is looking to their phones for photographs…they are not thinking that they need a “REAL” camera. In the past, most families had a somewhat decent camera. not any more. I would not be surprised that the predictions at the top of this page are accurate. The general culture has changed drastically and photography awareness for the masses in the form that “we” love is dying on the vine. the average person wants an inexpensive, convenient devise to take a few snapshots….They already have that in their new bodily appendage (addiction) known as the cell phone. I believe that the camera industry is in for even more of a RUDE awakening than they have already had..anyone who does not see this is in denial. The average person is going to (or already has) stop buying a camera of any kind. It is right in front of all of us. This sucks for camera enthusiasts because the social trend will not sustain the manufacturers of the cameras we love. Very sad. The economic trend (serious division of the classes) will also effect this change…Having a nice camera will not be in the budget either for many or most.
Very good insights, Bob. Indeed, the hobbyist camera is the cellphone. This war is already over, as Steve Jobs pointed out years ago when showing that the most used camera in a popular photo sharing site is the iPhone and the 2nd was a Canon.
BUT: this only means that using SLRs for Xmas snapshots is not what consumers need anymore. The physics of optics cannot be overcome: decent photos are taken with decent lenses, which has comparable dimensions to our own eyes.
The good news for us is that the MFT system is the closest compromise in image quality and versatility that the serious hobbyist or any travelling pro photographer needs. This means uncompromised image quality at a manageable size. There will always be manufacturers for this market.
I wish the markets were better…I love these cameras. Especially with the newer viewfinders, (VF-4). I am not so sure that they will survive in the near future, especially here in the USA… People here do not know what mirrorless even is. I got a friend started in photography with a G1 …he has become an incredible photographer, he move to APSC, the FF and he has never considered the MFT system again for any of his needs…although he complains about the weight all the time. Go figure.
I just hope Sony doesn’t buy them. I think Sony made a big mistake not sticking with the Minolta name. It would be a shame to see m43 go away some day. The balance of size and image quality really is perfect. Olympus was smart in creating it. They have probably been one of the biggest innovators in photography.
I used to work for a company that continuously was rumored to be about to be bought up for years. It never happened, and they are still doing very well today.
This particular analyst site is not regarded very highly, and they tend to just regurgitate analysis from other analysts anyway (probably they don’t have the competence or man-power to do some thinking on their own).
I wouldn’t be too worried. I find it more natural that Samsung is pulling out, being pretty new at this, and not having support from other companies. Between Panasonic and Olympus, they have a very healthy m43 eco-system, which benefits both. It is far harder for a Samsung, Pentax, Fuji or Ricoh. Sony still also has a pretty bad selection of lenses, which is why I abandoned the Nex system in the first place. (along with their intentional crippling of video output)
Olympus has hit upon something special with its high-end models, but its low-end mirrorless line is meeting new competition. So how will it handle competition from the FF cameras coming at lower prices? Thoughts?
Olympus could have a problem if they will be as compact as E-M5, E-M1, etc., and will be available for the same price. But the lenses are also a part of the game.
MFT and FF doesn’t really compete. The lenses can’t get as light and small as the MFT lenses can be and the FF is so far also slower on the FF cameras. Some also prefer the little bit larger DOF because then the lenses can be used wide open in more situations. Both have their advantages and disadvantages – someone who want’s one usually don’t want the other or just takes both.
+1 here. many believe, FF is the logical continuation in photography. (for me) it is not and i will continue to use smaller sensor cameras like nikon 1 or MFT very happily…
I agree. I have often said, Olympus and Panasonic should not be as worried about Sony as Canon and Nikon should be. The vast majority of people don’t need or even want Full Frame. The lenses are always going to be bigger and heavier, AND FF will always be more expensive.
I think Sony will get mirrorless the attention it deserves, as well as the more refined, cheaper E-M1. I honestly believe m43 has just started to hit its stride. M43 will start to take share from APS-C, and Sony will take share from Canon and Nikon in FF. All this is reliant of course on m43 continuing to innovate, AND more importantly getting their prices lower.
+1
The fact is that Olympus’s imaging division loses money every year – US$250m last year, US$100m this year and shows no signs of ever being profitable. The concept of forecasting that business was lose money indefinitely and continue to operate is illogical so it is inevitable that there are stories it will be closed down or sold. If the business gad been closed 4 years ago it would have saved shareholders US$600m – so keeping it operating has merely made the management rather than analysts appear stupid.
LOL, so apple should have been closed to that days?!
Markets are stupid, we should erase them.
Star Trek here we come 😀
I think this guy just looked at some numbers and said “goodbye”. He did not actually research what Olympus has to offer and how well those products are doing. Last year they had the E-M5 and it took the camera world by storm and now the E-M1 is doing similarly. Granted they are not huge sellers but they did very well. Olympus is far from gone.
Even the fool would know the point and shoot style M43 will not stay long. The business model of M43 is untested (count on selling to the same buyers again and again every 6 month). The SLR business model has been there for decades, buyer slowly built up a system from piece by piece.
@Richard – “The business model of M43 is untested (count on selling to the same buyers again and again every 6 month). The SLR business model has been there for decades, buyer slowly built up a system from piece by piece.” and DSLR bussiness model is different from m43 bussiness model how? new DSLRs come in same time cycles as m43 camera, but with only incremental upgrades while m43 is advancing in bigger steps from body to body. and the user does the same thing one way or another, buys a camera body and then adds lenses.
The problem is that despite the fantastic EM5 Olympus lost money last year – so taking the camera world by storm and being a profitable business are not the same thing, sadly…
From Thom Hogan’s article:” ….Bottom line: Fujifilm, Olympus, Panasonic, Pentax, and Samsung mirrorless cameras didn’t get worse, didn’t go away, nor did their status in the overall camera market change in the last year. If you’re one of those that are afraid a camera maker is going to go away, well, I’m sure that one or more eventually will, but not necessarily the ones you think or for the reasons you think. Nothing’s changed: if you want a mirrorless camera, there are plenty of great ones out there today from a wide range of vendors. Just buy what fits your needs, desires, and budget…”
Link:http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/smartphones-shatter-mirrorl.html
…a bit OT but I need to ..,
If those ANALysts (it stems from ANUS imo) were right ever before, they should have seen those ugly bank ruptures – not long enough ago to be forgotten – early enough, did they? Nada! No one needs to adhere their s..t.
+1000
The predictions are influenced by the fact that the company for which they work, or their customers, can even make more profit. So never trust an analyst. 😉
I’m pretty sure 247Wallst have no real credentials. They’re just a bunch of arm-chair analysts who paid for blog-space.
Didn’t WSJ threaten to sue them at one point because they used “Wall Street” in their name?
Nobody really knows what will happen. They’re just feeding on the obvious fact that cellphones have taken over the P&S market and any alarmist headline sells ads…
The analyst should disappear
Fanboys too…
And YOU for sure.
No better proof that YOU are the biggest fanboy here. Did mommy still not buy yourself a camera for Christmas so that you can finally go out and take photos instead of trolling the internet?
No kid, not a fanboy. The prediction of 247wallst for companies going belly up have had a hit rate of zero (0) during the last 8 years.
I do not always agree with the admin but here I do. There is a trend of so-called newspapers to create the news instead of reporting it.One has just to take a moment to look back at all of the financial experts who never saw the big events coming and who are still so sure about every ” forecast” they make
I wonder if those people have access to the P&L report of the Olympus financials as a whole instead of just the camera division
To me, they (247wallst) fit into the ‘scum’ category for making headlines on anything they can without applying any real intelligence or caring about the content of what they’re ‘spouting forth’. Thankfully manufacturers like Olympus have more about them than just numbers & they don’t need some nobody in the USA to tell them how to run their business or when to sell up.
People who can make good predictions about such things don’t need to waste their life trying to make money as ‘analyst’.
Like the quote in fight club, survival rate drops to 0 over a long enough timeline. So all these ‘predictions’ are pointless as predicting I or you are going to die one day.
This is like Apple being on its last leg over and over and over.
The people at 247Wallst are regurgitating Credit Suisse’s “anal”yst’s thoughts on what will happen.
Everyone knows that the cheap point-and-shoot camera is doomed. Why carry something extra when your smartphone will do just fine for a 4×6 print or sharing on the web?
It’s called click bait. An unfortunate byproduct of vaporous Internet commerce.
It has very little basis in reality, just like all the newly found online journalists…..
That’s one option. The other is stock scam. You (and your other analyst buddies) try to drive down the price of a stock you expect to do well so you can get yourself or your clients to buy in at the bottom before the market figures out you’re full of it.
Why offer *good* advice for free, after all, when bad advice can be so much more profitable.
Most likely this will happen in mid-June form what I am seeing as well.
Those camera makers who do not have full frame DSLR will be trashed by camera buyers in the end. Like Olympic athletes, those who do not wish to be the best, will be out by the competition.
Agree.
One more thing: The trend is very obvious. FF’s sensor is upgraded with relatively lower cost of ownership, therefore making the retail price of FF gears relatively friendlier and more attractive than ever. Nowadays FF bodies and lenses tend to be cheaper every year. The cost of M4/3, on the other hand, is getting more expensive.
I posted this link some time ago.
Interesting thing is the US companies will vanish. Never to be seen again. However the other companies will possibly just leave the US market rather than vanish.
Note Mitsubishi, they will, like Suzuki before them say they are not playing the US game and pull out. Suzuki did this and is still alive and well in most other places. There is no reason why Mitsubishi will not be.
I have been an advocate of Olympus leaving the US market for some time. They should stop sinking capital into a big US pit with no bottom. They would be better getting out and spending time with those that believe. The money spent on support networks and discounts in the US would be better placed on R&D, bottom line profit and supporting users in Europe, India and Asia and other places.
While 247wallst may well be proven to be correct. For the international brands that may well be their new profitability beginning.
Stop.
The United States is one of the Largest markets in the world, why Not sell here?
Also, you want them to leave a market, not because they’re “Too Good” for the U.S., but because Olympus cameras don’t sell here.
But who’s fault is that?
OLYMPUS.
-They don’t Market for crap, no commercials, no ads in magazines (Like Canon and Nikon), NOTHING.
Yeah, you’re right… The Should leave, because they’re not even trying to compete. You can make the best item I’m the world, but without the proper marketing, WHO CARES?
Usually, when a company retreats from the States, it’s simply because they Can’t Compete. And against Canon, Nikon and Sony, what chance do they have?
If they were smart, they should fall all the way back and only sell in Asia.
Go refresh your marketing and management.
Not all business is GOOD business. You need to understand that first.
Examples of “bad business” include selling off vast quantities of finite natural resources like coal, iron ore and natural gas. Letting foreign powers acquire considerable stakes in domestic power production is also of greater concern and importance than where a camera maker sells their products.
I agree with your ‘bad business’ but it is not related to “Not all business is GOOD business” we must not get Mr ALLCAPS over excited.
It’s related to “Mind own business.”
> The United States is one of the Largest markets in the world, why Not sell here?
Why bother to continue wasting money trying to establish a foothold in a market when it just doesn’t work? Especially such a small mirrorless camera market like the US.
There is a time when its just better to cut your losses and focus on your strengths.
Not that the US matters in the mirrorless camera business that much anyway because its just a small player in that regard.
> But who’s fault is that?
> OLYMPUS.
No. The general american public does not adopt new things but simply stays with the old stuff forevermore. Asian countries and Europe are far more innovative and open to new things. And the mirrorless sales numbers reflect that.
And how do you expect the US market to know about M43, or any new product these days, by just throwing it out there? Yeah, that worked….
What a joke.
If the American Public thought like that, we’ll still have personal CD players, instead of iphones/ipods and making comments on net books instead of ipads/tablets. Heck, maybe we’d still be shooting on Film, forget digital!
Europe isn’t so far away from U.S. numbers, either. Sure, it’s more, but still nothing compared to DSLR sales.
Anyways, let me go watch TV with my big tube wooden set and listen to some music on my record player, while browsing the Web -I mean Newspaper…
I believe there is some truth in this prediction, not aimed directly at Olympus, but at the camera market as a whole. In some ways, the camera market is where the phone market was prior to the release of the first smart phones some years ago. Prior to the release of the first candy bar phones, everybody was using phones of similar technology and features and therefore there was less motivation to continually upgrade to a newer model. The market desired something different and improved; they got it with the first iPhone and the rest was history. Nokia and REM refused to jump on board and they suffered. Nokia market share fell dramatically and only now are they starting to recover; REM is a different story.
The camera market is flooded with choices. Gear heads chase the latest and greatest, but the average consumer buys when their previous model becomes unserviceable or when they are about to travel. Innovation is what will drive the camera market forward. People have money, but are waiting. Waiting for something innovative. They are waiting for something that they can emotionally attach themselves too. Something that is a fashion item; a showpiece of camera jewellery.
The market for potential customers is fickle. Those on this site and others with a pure interest in photography are not the buyers that will carry the market to the next level, it is the average consumer that uses a camera sometimes. This group of consumers are the majority and they have little interest in manually driving a camera to achieve the best results. They desire professional results in automated functionality. They desire simple and intuitive functionality like an iPhone where they only have enough time to read the manual once at most. They demand quality and will pay for the privelage.
Who put the ANAL in analysis?
All these companies have died a thousand deaths, yet they’re all still around.
I do think the market is over saturated, the camera buying boom will level out. I know i have 4 cameras too many:)
Funny how Americans buy big cameras(like cars) , Japanese like the compacts, everybody else seems to go their own ways.
Meanwhile if Olympus could get their video to Panasonic quality they!d sell 50% more cameras..ditto Fuji.
There will be a Sony logo on the OM-D bodies then but they will still work. Or Sony will finally make the anticipated FF 5-axis IBIS OM-D with matching Zuiko lenses in E-Mount. Nothing to whine about, just put a black piece of tape over the Sony logo and go out shooting. The existing lenses will still work until they die (in case of 12-40 probably a bit sooner laying around in your bag).
Bye bye Olympus, was a great time with you but the world will still turn without you.
maybe they’ll stop selling overpriced cameras
“Click bait” and “stock scam” are very likely reasons for this nonsense, as described above.
But has anyone analysed the profitability of the different sectors of the camera market? We all know that P@S cameras are a lost cause. Olympus and just about every other camera manufacturer are getting out of them. And it has taken time for the P@S losses to be purged from the balance sheets.
Olympus have stated that their m43 cameras are profitable and we will likely see this in the next financial results. Other manufacturers will probably do the same.
Its a bit annoying having this drivel fill up the forum chatter when there are better things to read or talk about.
This analysis is not that stupid. It probably makes sense. According to Japan’s photography forums, it’s likely that Oly may be acquired in near future.
Always cite your sources.
@Vincent this isn’t exactly the first time such predictions are made. I see no reason whatsoever why such a prediction now is better then the one from a year ago (which turned out to be wrong), as a matter of fact, there are many reasons why it isn’t, as last year Olympus was in the middle of a financial scandal, and having direct cash-flow issues, which they don’t have now.
Additionally, Olympus is much more then a camera business, rather, their camera business is merely a small part of the whole, and as a whole Olympus is actually turning a profit. For R&D and economy of scale reasons, the camera division benefits their profitable medical business, so its unlikely they’ll get rid of this easily.
Last but not least, Japanese companies use different reasoning for their decision making then the cut-throat corporate raider attitude that seems so popular among ‘analysts’. Luckily some US companies also don’t follow this logic, else there wouldn’t have been any kind of technology development left in the western world in general and the USA in particular.
This crew at that glorified casino named Wall street should just stick to what they do best…..destroying and gambling away the American economy among other national and international wholesome financial and economic ventures like derivatives…in the meantime let Olympus do what it does best which is making cameras, great optics and excellent medical instruments, tangible things that many people around the world appreciate.
And they don’t realise that Sony’s electronics division is in huge debt and is the only one of it’s three divisions that is in trouble. The latest ceo is doing very well to revive it but the fact remains, they’re still far from there which leads me to the question…Why is wall st not focusing on this when there was previously pressure on Sony from huge investors to shut most the electronics shop and focus on other industries they’re thriving at?
The analyst guys were probably fired but they do not disappear. You can always find them trolling and hating Olympus in 43rumors. 🙂
Frakkin vultures, these so-called analysts.
You should not make conclusions about the ‘stupidity’ of any study. You should let your esteemed readers make that conclusion.
At least give us something to comment on!
Thom Hogan offers this insight …
“Moreover, the facts are the facts. Canon, Nikon, and Sony do sell well more than half the cameras made today. The oligopoly already exists, has existed for some time, and it’s getting stronger as the weaker players contract. It’s actually a logical conclusion that the Credit Suisse came to from the data that’s available: control is consolidated in three players. There’s nothing to indicate that this will change in the near future. All the players outside the oligopoly are losing money in cameras, and that obviously can’t go on forever, at least not under any form of Western corporate due diligence. If analysts, including myself, do get something wrong, it’s usually in the form of applying Western standards to Japanese companies. We’ve had quite a few Japanese consumer electronics companies that are underwater, stay underwater, have no real prospects of surfacing again, yet somehow manage to stay propped up in the lingering form of banking keiretsu that’s going on in Tokyo these days…”
http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/
@Happy Van
“Thom Hogan offers this insight …” first of all you need to look up the definition of “insight”
“Moreover, the facts are the facts. Canon, Nikon, and Sony do sell well more than half the cameras made today. The oligopoly already exists, has existed for some time, and it’s getting stronger as the weaker players contract.”Proof it’s getting stronger???
“It’s actually a logical conclusion that the Credit Suisse came to from the data that’s available: control is consolidated in three players. There’s nothing to indicate that this will change in the near future.” not really there’s plenty of data to say otherwise.
“All the players outside the oligopoly are losing money in cameras, and that obviously can’t go on forever, at least not under any form of Western corporate due diligence.”Those outside the oligopoly are mostly narrowing their loses and gaining market share, same can’t be said for canikony.How much profit has Amazon made in it’s 20 years and is this reflected in it’s share price?
“If analysts, including myself, do get something wrong, it’s usually in the form of applying Western standards to Japanese companies. We’ve had quite a few Japanese consumer electronics companies that are underwater, stay underwater, have no real prospects of surfacing again, yet somehow manage to stay propped up in the lingering form of banking keiretsu that’s going on in Tokyo these days…” typical Hogan jingoism speak.
Jingoism doesn’t sound right.
Perhaps, you mean ‘partisan’. You’re the expert on that.
par·ti·san
1 [pahr-tuh-zuhn, -suhn; British pahr-tuh-zan] Show IPA
noun
1.
an adherent or supporter of a person, group, party, or cause, especially a person who shows a biased, emotional allegiance.
If this article is so “stupid,” why has it been posted and referenced here? Advertising hits?
Just try t think a bit before to throw shit on me. This is an article that goes around the web and plenty of sites have posted it. So, shoudl 43rumors simply ignore the news that go aroudn the wbe or is it better to talk about it directly?
Damn some people really has zero respect and attitude.
damn right.
this is admin’s website, and he decides what to post here, period.
don’t like that? stay away.
this is an article regarding Olympus and it’s camera business – so I find it totally relevant here.
don’t like reading it here? ignore it. don’t like the contents? comment on it.
For what it’s worth – I think the analysis is all wrong, written by someone without a clue, who probably only saw some very obvious graphs and thinks he knows it all. That’s the more innocent interpretation, the alternative being he somehow hopes to profit by writing something up.
Finally, who really knows whats going on in these big companies?
Perhaps one division is making a loss on purpose for tax reasons – compensating for other divisions making profits? A very common, even healthy situation.
2014 will be another year of not profiting. What the Olympus president said recently, was reversed by Olympus PR, saying it will be another year of losses. This has happened four years straight now.
In order for Olympus to stay alive, someone will have to partner up with them. Sony doesn’t have the money, so who’s gonna take over?
MrALLCRAP – no one gives a shit what you think.
http://theonlinephotographer.typepad.com/the_online_photographer/2014/01/olympus-disappearing-thom-responds.html
“First, while Olympus CEO has said they’ll post a profit next year, immediately after he publicly stated that, Olympus executives went around to analysts and said “no, we won’t.” If true, this would be the fourth year in a row that Olympus has said they’ll post a profit in cameras yet lost money. Significant money.”
Everybody is talking about this…. Tissue?
Another typical Fanboy response when they can’t bring anything constructive to the conversation. I hope you’re a Teenager, with your reaction to comments…
Financial analyst are like Weather men, they can’t tell what’s going to happen but can always tell you why it happened after the fact.
FF and APSC is the future. M43 could survive if they are going small and cheap so they can compete with point and shoot camera’s.
Have yo agree here, that a cheap entry model is needed. Let’s see if the EM-10 can compete price wise with the cheap APSC models.
Why FF is so overrated is beyond me. Less than 10% of the DSLRs sold are FF. As desirable as it may be from an enthusiast or professional POV, the biggest players in the interchangeable lens market are APSC, then m43 and then at about 5% FF (source recent BNC article on camera sales on this page). The same article has also a very interesting pie chart which looks like compact camera vs. interchangeable camera sales in Japan have fallen below 50% but I can’t read Japanese…
Just the opposite. FF and APSC are the past. What about the mirror and pentaprism… also the future??
Wake up, it’s 2014 and FF doesn’t need a mirror anymore. The realy only advantage I see in M43 above a APS-C or FF mirrorless is a smaller lens at longer focal length above 100mm, which is not a focal length ideal for any mirrorless at the moment (sports, birds). For everything below that for general photography I don’t see any advantage, not even in price. How can they sell their top models GX7 and EM-1 at higher prices than cameras with larger and much larger sensors (GX7 vs NEX-6, EM-1 vs A7)? And these larger sensor cameras are smaller, and lighter! M43 isn’t only fighting against APS-C and FF DSLR anymore like 5 years ago, times have changed.
100mm on ‘full frame’ or 100mm on 4/3″? Either way, both are highly useful on a mirrorless camera for many photographers. Nothat doesn’t just concern birding and wildlife either, rather, even on 4/3″ 100mm is RATHER on the short side for this.
Even at 100mm on full frame you are at a very useful range for portraiture and an equivalent on a 4/3″ mirrirless is going to be a fair bit smaller.
Its only in the normal (50mm) to moderate wide (35) where you won’t suffer a size disadvantage for lenses on ‘full frame’.
> …How can they sell their top models at higher prices than cameras with larger and much larger sensors…
because the sensor isn’t the only thing that matters, duh.
perhaps look at it the other way around: what are those “expensive cameras with small sensors” offering over the larger sensor cameras ? The answers have more to do with photography and less with tech specs.
Yeah, what have those overpriced cameras to offer, that cheaper Canons and Nikons have not? Slightly smaller size aside? Tell us, I am curious. It has to do with photography huh? I may know a thing or two, go ahead please.
i dout it but they could be right
the next omd (em10) sounds like a joke the same sensor in the same body with no real or a small IQ inpovrment
where are the new lens to buy no Super telephoto no long micro (the types of lens where MFT shuold have an advantage but dose not becuse the are no natvie lens )
i can see me not spending any money on olympus gear this year if the
40-150mm f2.8 comes out at the end of the year and thats an if it will not be available untill next year
The EM-10 is just what Olympus needs: a camera with no improvement but at a far lower price point, to compete with the entry APSC DSLRs to become interesting and to get on the map for the average consumer.
This way it compares to the EM-1 as the APSCs to the FF models.
This guys is maybe chees option plays, and them think Canon is king and Olympus is an horse in one corner. 😀
if only Dirty Harry was here….
All they make are just some consumer level cameras, why the hell would you care! You buying a freaking camera from them not investing. Worst case you lose out a little more in the resale value. Boo Hoo. If you like the camera go for it.
I don’t care whether Oly will be out of business or acquired by any company. My royalty lies in photography, not a brand. There are other brands and systems to choose from. Get it?
This sounds to me a bit like the pot calling the kettle black. The truth is Oly survived last year by the skin of it’s teath and it’s not out of the poo yet. Cash injections don’t come free and sony one way or another will expect a pay day. I don’t know Oly’s ability to get on top of its financial predicament or Sonys strategy. But I do hope Oly comes out strong and intact.
@admin I just read this post and your comments again and pissed myself laughing. Is the irony deliberate? If it is, you are a genius and deserve all the extra hits you get today. If you are serious and it is pure dumb luck, well good on ya anyway 😉
You didnt post the most funniest part of his forecast:
“ased on increased interest in high-end cameras, the company plans to focus on increasing sales of SLR cameras, which accounted for just 35% of its imaging business.”
Well, seems legit to me. Focus on alanog SLR cameras because they account for 35% of its sales O_O
This shows, this guy doesnt even know what he is talking about… dont take it serious.
BUT, he got a point, when he says that the compact camera market will shrink further and therefore the unit ales of all camera manufacturers will decrease a lot. This will be a hard year. But Olympus, Panasonic already declared a long time ago to stop production of low-end compacts, so they should be safe in their forecasting, whereas Nikon and Canon should have bigger drops in their sales numbers. Just look at the 09/13 forecast from Nikon. Sales of compacts will drop by 50% in 2014. I guess, it will be very interesting to see, but ireally think, that some manfuacturers might vanish, especially those who rely on their compact camera business. Fujifilm, Pana, Oly are safe though. Nikon should have hard times in 2014…
Just read through, haha. Don’t bother with this guys, this is no analysis. This is just some editors who pick up news from here and there to pack up to get some views from keywords on the title. It lacks fundamental throughout review of the business and critical stock forecasts. A company and stock analysis is 10 pages at least with considerable work.
Photography is a tricky business and I haven’t seen around many dedicated analysts who really know the field inside out. I have never heard of 247wallst. From the look of it this is more of a news hub than an investing forum. My only acceptable free place for financial analysis and investing news would be Seeking Alpha.
Lastly, this article is free. No worthy financial analysis is free.
People who are actually good at doing such analysis don’t have to make money from trying to sell such analysis, as they can make a lot more money from simply acting on their own analysis.
No they still sell these things out. There are still pure equity shops who don’t invest but instead sell these researches to clients and other funds for a profit. They certainly have the expertise, but not the money to invest in unliquid stock like Olympus. Large asset management also have to supplement their client base with updated researches about their picks’ performance and forecast. Those researches are also used for other purposes such as understanding new opportunities to long/short. When you invest in long term, up-to-date researches are still needed.
Hello there,
The Olympus prediction may be unreal.. But dont wrtie off fully the weather prediction hehehe. We are experiencing strange changes in weather with storms and flooding in this part of Europe. Winter still more to go..
May be they are predicting on basis of decreasing market share…
Even journalists and bloggers and analysts have to make a living. Every year at this time analysts and bloggers sometimes publish tedioius lists of the top 10 this or that. Especially of brands that will disappear this year. Quite often they are correct, and it’s easy to think of major brands that have vanished in the last 3 years.
This analyst bases the forecast on real company performance numbers. If we’re going to come up with an alternate forecast, we need to use his exact same numbers and show how they predict a rosy future for Olympus. We can’t do that, so it’s easier for us to insult the person who makes a living out of forecasts. We don’t realize that this doesn’t make our case stronger, if anything it makes it weaker. We look like whiney illogical babies whose toys are being threatened.
We can also selectively cherry pick forecasts in the past that were incorrect, and then come up with the conclusion that all forecasts, especially this one, are wrong. Equally weak.
Finally, we can say that the reports of Olympus’s death come every year and it is still alive. Is it? Olympus dropped what it hailed as the industry game-changer, the 4/3 format. This was to be the great savior, although many predicted it would never get traction. The analysts were right, Olympus was wrong, and this is a very recent example of Olympus dropping unprofitable lines.
Olympus died last year when it sold its soul to Sony. It gave up its own independent distribution, marketing, repair, support lines, as these were folded in to its ‘white knight…’ and this is just the start. Sony is calling the shots. Sony already has a struggling mirrorless line, it has scant resources to prop up yet another one. Without this “partnership,” Olympus would have been dead today.
The conclusion is that the forecasters last year were indeed correct, and Olympus did fold, but the unforeseen deus ex machina propped it up yet again.
But let’s continue with magical thinking. If the weather in Europe stays cold, Olympus will fail. But if the weather in Europe is pleasant, we can enjoy Olympus for another year. Let’s call this “The Future of Olympus as Groundhog Day” gambit.
“Even journalists and bloggers and analysts have to make a living.”
Absolutely, but its worth noting that if their predictions for the future would be more accurate then pure chance, they’d be making their living on the stock market, and not by trying to sell analysis one way or another.
“Every year at this time analysts and bloggers sometimes publish tedioius lists of the top 10 this or that. Especially of brands that will disappear this year.”
Yes, and often their reasoning is interesting and worth some thought.
“Quite often they are correct, and it’s easy to think of major brands that have vanished in the last 3 years.”
Its easy to say based on numbers which brands are doing better then others today, but that does not a prediction make. Obviously, given enough such predictions from various people, its easy to find ones that are right, and to find ones predicting any company folding in the past, but to find an analyst or group that consistently predicts such things well is an entirely different matter.
People who are good at predicting such things have better ways of making a living then selling you their analysis.
Very well put Ronin but as evidenced by the repsonses you are getting and the responses to the comments that I made early on, the fanboy fanatical base is never going to look at objectivity. Olympus photo products already don’t exist as an independent entity and pretending that they do and pretending that Sony isn’t in the picture is basically being an Ostrich with it’s head buried in the sand.
In my nearly 5 decades of photography I have always had a soft spot for Olympus products and have owned quite a few through the years but in the end I am an objective business person in the photo industry with zero brand affiliation and zero blind adoration of any company’s products. But arguing it here, with the rabid brand loyalists, I am learning, is a complete exercise in futility.
Time will tell what becomes of Olympus’ photo business. Until then it is all just speculation. Some of us are just speculating based on some verifiable data while others are using pure emotion. We will see what happens. Personally, i hope Olympus, and Fuji, and Panasonic, and everyone can make a profitable business out of all of this photo stuff because that means that the industry and photography is thriving, but based on the numbers, I’m very skeptical that the landscape won;t look totally different in 1 to 3 years. I’m sure many of the great names, including Olympus will still be around but they may be a part of a different company – kind of like Pentax by Ricoh…
The issue is that if there weren’t other factors then simple analysis based on public financial data, Olympus would most likely have sold their image business quite a while ago.
Japanese business culture isn’t the same as US business culture, and their logic evidently involves other factors then strict beancounter ones.
If this is all so, why can a startup with very niche MFT cameras, without any photo capability grow? If BlackMagic (good name) can do it and Oly cannot, and while both have very good products, it signals that the problem is not the sector but the business model.
Olympus should just abandon the US and focus on their strengths: Asia & Europe.
Americans obviously prefer to lug their ancient heavy dslrs around and to be in the me-too camera crowd (canon+nikon).
For Olympus it would be much better to focus on its strength and plan for tomorrow than to continue to burn cash trying to establish a foothold in the yesterday-people market.
The US is a small mirrorless player anyway, so why bother?
“The US is a small mirrorless player anyway, so why bother?”
From business and marketing perspective, I’m afraid that you have no idea what you are talking about.
Even though US is still small mirrorless market sharing, do you know how large the market segment and revenue stream from US?
@soren
do you?
latest figures from 2012 show USA being 16% of the total world camera down from a high of 30+% and still in decline…
http://www.businessinsider.com/mirrorless-camera-sales-disappoint-2013-12
Latest…? From 2012?
Mirroless sales are down everywhere, but there was minor growth in DSLR’s this holiday, very minor, but still much better than mirrorless.
I think Panasonic will be the Major player in M43 sales wise with proper moves like the GM1 and smaller lenses, while Olympus with their larger cameras, though highly rated, will go the way of the Dodo.
They want to return to larger sizes, with bodies and lenses, their latest lens is faulty, and they’re still going through legal problems for their decade of covering losses. For once, I kind of agree with the analysts.
Soren
“From business and marketing perspective, I’m afraid that you have no idea what you are talking about.
Even though US is still small mirrorless market sharing, do you know how large the market segment and revenue stream from US?”
I am afraid you are the one who has no idea. Big market can mean profit, if, one gets a share. It can also mean potential profit with a well devised and cost supported entry plan. Olympus does not have the capital for a “well devised and cost supported plan” I am also unsure that they have the expertise in planning for the US market either.
They are playing make and mend in a clothing factory.
Big market also means the potential for big costs and a big loss, if, the market rejects the advances.
That is where Olympus is at at the moment.
Correct, you can see that from big departments stores not stocking Olympus and Panasonic photography products they way do do for Sony, Nikon and Canon.
As I see it most DSLR buyers are like lemmings and buy whatever gives them status or what the “neighbour” also has. They are generally uninformed about photography gear.
Pretending the US is the problem is to blame the consumer because the company doesn’t sell its consumer products.
The company still loses money, regardless. This is suggesting they abandon a market where they sell at least some product so that they can sell less.
It’s not like Olympus would be reducing costs by abandoning the US. Since Sony does Olympus’s distribution and support anyway.
Again incorrect. You realy haven’t got a clue businesswise and it shows.
Sony doen’t provide free service if they at all take care of distribution which I doubt.
The US is a huge area with big low populated area’s where you have to take care of service and distribution also. Very cost ineffective.
But formost the mindset is still bigger is better, which is totally the opposite of what m43 stands for.
Europe is less conservative as the US and also has more dense populated area’s, the infrastructure is much better compared to the US. All these things play a big part in how cost effective one can be.
AMD still exist too, some brands just can survive for an extremely long time without making a profit.
AMD survives largely on the backs of their ATI graphics business these days. It’s not the CPU side of the business.
This is correct, and very similar to how Olympus survives on the back of their medical business currently, and has been for quite a while.
Sometimes there are reasons for companies to do such things that go beyond a simple look at last years public books.
No they still sell these things out. There are still pure equity shops who don’t invest but instead sell these researches to clients and other funds for a profit. They certainly have the expertise, but not the money to invest in unliquid stock like Olympus. Large asset management also have to supplement their client base with updated researches about their picks’ performance and forecast. Those researches are also used for other purposes such as understanding new opportunities to long/short. When you invest in long term, up-to-date researches are still needed.
Sorry mean to reply to yaa.
There certainly is a market for such analysis, but that doesn’t yet indicate a consistent performance of such analysis over the long term, rather, the last ‘economic crisis’ shows the clients of such analysts tend to get hit as hard or even harder then anyone else. It takes some patience and a bit of initial starting money to benefit from predicting the economic future of companies well, but not of the kind people like you and me can’t afford. We lack the knowledge of what the future brings, lack insight in the boardroom discussions, so lack too much data to make any serious predictions for the longer term. Very near future is another thing, and there certainly are people doing an extremely good job at that, but there you run into the kind of issues you mention, you need significant money to earn something with that.
Of course, I never argue about the usefulness of these researches, just to prove that not all people who are good financial analysts can invest using their own idea. Many of them don’t have the capital for that.
If it is a one-off good idea, then sure, that argument works. If you have any kind of consistency in predicting the economic future, it doesn’t take much starting money to get to a point where you won’t have to write analysis for a living within at most a few years, and the argument that people have to make a living from publishing such analysis only works for a very short time.
But even if you can’t make money from those predictions directly, or simply don’t want to, as long as you are good at actually predicting the economic future, there exist companies that will pay you a small fortune to never ever make such analysis public, but instead give it to them.
There being a market for publication of such analysis does not mean that analysis makes accurate predictions of the future. What Karen G says somewhere else in this thread about politicians as much applies to pundits and analysts.
Well I have never said that these researches are accurate, all I am trying to say is that there are many good people with analysis skills but without the money needed to invest in those stocks.
It’s hard to define accuracy in this business. The reason why some top-tier analysts come out on top out of thousands and thousands other is not accuracy alone. An analysts’ network with CEOs, connections with trading partners and other “soft-skills” in delivering their work count much more. This is not to mention that only a handful of people can actually get their names on the researches, the rests are just entry-level people doing menial work with low pay than other sectors.
Lastly, even if you are good analysts (which most of the time plainly mean that you have insider information), you are under very strong trading restrictions. For example, every trading strategy has to be implemented on the clients’ accounts first. It’s not hard to imagine when it’s the analysts’ turn, most of the profit is gone already.
As long as those people analyze financial data, thats all fine. The ‘issues’ start when they start making predictions that involve more then just that financial data. Not only because they simply can’t see into the future, but also when somewhat influential, it easily goes in the direction of outright manipulation.
In this case, they may or may not be right, but there is a fair bit of history of such predictions being off the mark when the market is undergoing rapid changes and dealing with a company that has a fair bit of history of wanting to be active in that market, has the means to do so (due to a profitable medical business), even if it doesn’t return an immediate profit.
With regards to analysts with really good skills at predicting future market developments and being found, if you can demonstrate them, there are a number of proprietary trading funds and the like always on the lookout for such people. Don’t need the contacts, but do need demonstrable skills, being able to make some projections based on trends won’t do the job.
I guess we are not getting each other. I simply want to say that there are people who make good analysis but can’t invest due to outside factors. Certainly I have always doubted the quality of many researches as well as the massive system needed to cover over and over again may be 100 core stocks.
Well, I was obviously talking about the kind of ‘analysis’ as done by this article, which does actually go beyond analysis.
Simply, the US buyers do not want a point and shoot style Olympus. Advice from older generation is always like this: Son, if you want to do photography, get a SLR, do not want your money on Point and shoot toys!
When Olympus can’t changed the culture, then the choice is either die with M43 or go back to SLR business with full frame.
Olympus CAN’T afford to go FF, and even if they had the money, it would be the Kiss of Death.
No one at this time would dare to go against Canikon right now. Which is why everyone else is doing smaller sensor cameras. Even when you hear of some “Pro” leaving C/N for mirrorless, WAY many more consumers pick up their first DSLR.
If Panasonic were to spend money on marketing their cameras like the G6, claiming similar Image Quality, compared to a camera like the Canon Rebel, in a smaller DSLR shape, they would have sold Way more units. Also, price plays a huge part.
Having a camera like the E-M1 at that price is a sick joke that nobody gets. Price is killing M43 just as much as no marketing.
They’ve probably taken into account P&S sales numbers and made calculations not knowing Oly has given up most of their small sensored cameras. That shows how badly informed the article authors are.
Citation, please? Otherwise, this is treating a mere speculation as proof that the analyst is ignorant.
http://www.dpreview.com/news/2013/05/16/olympus-to-axe-cheapest-point-and-shoots
Thanks, but that citation certainly does not say that today’s analyst citation ignoring point and shoots. Fact is, your citation is 8 months old.
And this analysis was published in may 2013, so likely doesn’t include that change in policy yet.
“A politican needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.” Winston Churchill.
This differentiates politicians from finance whizzes. If the foretold events don’t happen the finance whizzes force the issue with a market crash.
Then make everyone else pay for not following the foretelling.
> This differentiates politicians from finance whizzes. If the foretold events don’t happen, the finance whizzes force the issue – Then make everyone else pay for not following the foretelling.
wow – really bad analogy.
if anyone is forcing issues, it’s politicians, and Churchill most definitely so.
Very funny, you should be on the stage.
Now look at the real world. Everyone pays for the finance bods to get richer, especially the many of them that lie outright or claim ‘I have done nothing wrong’. That statement must be copyright to the finance industry.
“No. The general american public does not adopt new things but simply stays with the old stuff forevermore. Asian countries and Europe are far more innovative and open to new things. And the mirrorless sales numbers reflect that.”
I tend to agree and therefore my heavy criticism of things overseas. However it’s not that Olympus didn’t have a love affair with America at the beginning of 4/3 proper (2003?). It tried v. much to be the alternative to C&N with a dSLR alternative. But by 2009 it had failed, and folded up THEN.
If you read the yearly reports you’ll see that basically Olympus and m4/3 see all their LT development in Asia, and I believe that they can perfectly can do without the US. From 2009 to today the World has gone upside down, all the new customers are in the South Asia. US seems split between old Canon & Nikonians and young smarphoners, with nothing in between for mirrorless.
Accordingly we see that all troll seem to come from overseas. There is a cultural gap, and this site doesn’t seem to flounder because it’s the more European side that prevails. OTH I am under no illusion that if Olympus should have relied on Europe alone it must have closed shop years ago.
That alone however tells us how unreliable are Western business predictors. They mostly rely on THEIR market figures, and cannot divine Asia. Even Thom has a word of caution when judging Japan.
There IS a good market for m43 in the US, if done properly. I don’t like the gross generalization of America. I come from Europe but live in the US, and it is incredibly diverse – with many people being cutting edge both in terms of thinking, values, technology etc, you name it.
‘Done properly’ means that it was Olympus’ fault. But the truth is that Olympus tried from 2003 to 2009 and was rejected in the US.
We have every day evidence of trolls and Olympus haters in this site, who use american slang. What else do you need?
BTW you believe that Olympus needs America, that it is a beggar. Not at all, is was so for 4/3 but never for m4/3.
When one is not a beggar anymore, that where the racism and hate come out. And yet all sales stats show that mirrorless developed entirely in Asia. Olympus does not need America. Be happy if it still sells there.
Of course it is Olympus’s fault.
If a consumer product manufacturer fails to sell its product line, exactly whose fault is it?
We blame the consumer for failing to buy the manufacturer’s luxury toys? The consumer has obviously rejected the product in favor of competitor products, and is quite happy with the purchase.
I’m sorry, I can’t think of any obligation Americans have to purchase a product they see no value in. Perhaps we can pass laws forcing them.
“If a consumer product manufacturer fails to sell its product line, exactly whose fault is it?”
Wrong question, as it is strongly suggestive.
If a consumer product doesn’t sell, who is to blame, manufacturer or consumer?
Can be a case of both failing, as the manufacturer may not be selling the product the consumer wants, or the consumer is unaware of said product.
But but, if the consumer is unaware its the manufacturers fault!
Possibly, like a manufacturer should advertise their products, consumers should inform themselves. If they don’t, that nice ‘free market’ idea falls flat on its face, its not just an assumption, it is an absolute requirement.
And being perfectly happy when you don’t know there is anything that might do a better job, well yes, but doesn’t say much really.
Matter of fact is, it took the USA over a decade to catch up to for example Europe when it comes to consumer mobile communications, and sorry to put it like this, but it actually took a company dumbing down the thing enough before it ever took off in the USA. Manufacturers fault for not doing so earlier? Or consumers fault for not enjoying some rather nice through imperfect technology?
Real photogs need real cameras, not toys. M43 shooters are either clueless amateurs or paid by the manufacturers. So you shoot M43, yes you are a bad consumer because you made the wrong choice, but hey, keep your hair on, you can still change systems.
Real photographers do not have the need to go to places for equipment they don’t use to tell the people there how stupid they are for using the ‘wrong’ equipment, but adolescent boys often do, they mistakenly think they can ‘prove’ themselves like that.
Chill out mate, it’s only a camera. Just toss it and buy something proper.
Chill out man, its only a camera, and not one you have to use.
@Ronin. Again your reaction showcases very little business knowledge, and child like reaction, even arrogance.
Clearly the US has no interrest in m43, so yeah, why keep investing money in a market that shows no love (meaning very few buyers). You can still sell over the net to those interrested to buy.
Better focus on markets that ARE interrested.
The US isn’t a market for growth anymore that’s Europe and Asia nowadays.
The difference between the USA and many other large economies is that the masses have buying power, as they earn considerably more than their counterparts in China, India etc. They therefore become a bigger part of marketing statistics. Americans in the professional classes are just as innovative and smart as their peers anywhere else, and they are the ones buying mirrorless. It is just that for every one of them, there are many more poorly educated blue collar and service industry employees who have the means to buy a camera, but they don’t read or investigate the world around them, so tend to stick to what is already known to them – Canikon DSLRs – especially when this old technology is available to them at the $300 price point as opposed to $700.
I bought this mass produced consumer toy, and I am obviously smarter than anyone else.
Therefore, anyone that doesn’t buy it must be a hillbilly uneducated slob, and is certainly not up to my refined professional level.
The fact that the mere masses somehow are free to pay less money for better photo quality by buying DSLRs proves their inferiority, and they should be compelled by law to by whatever their betters, perhaps best personified by yours truly, buy.
I bought this very affordable camera with suberbly LARGE sensor and a nice lens. It takes superb pictures when I can be bothered to haul it around.
@ronin.
Nobody said US citizens are stupid.
They are just not interrested in the product.
You on the otherhand do show vivid arrogance and suggest Olympus and their customers are stupid for buying m43.
Lets asume the analysis is right. What would it mean to m43? If I were about to buy a new camera and read such news I would probably think in another system.
I’m actually thinking in buying a new lens (pana 12-35 or oly 12-40, not cheap ones) and I’m kind if afraid about all these being said here.
I’m not sure anyone else has noticed, but the linked article was published (and created a previous wave of commentary) in May 2013. So this is not a fresh prediction, and I don’t think the “..(again)…” in the 43rumors story headline is accurate.
The 247WallStreet blog also predicted the demise of USA presence for Volvo and Mitsubishi; time will tell but these predictions seem unlikely. The USA sales volume, though small relative to many other automakers, still represents a very important component of the global picture for Volvo.
I get the impression that “prediction” web blog is not worth a great deal, but it has gotten a disproportionate share of publicity for months now simply because it pushes people’s buttons when one of their favorite brands is disrespected. So really it is just another version of “trolling” and reactions like the story & comments here on 43rumors are just “feeding the trolls” in web-speak.
So rather than feeling embarrassed that their predictions aren’t very accurate, the author(s) of the prediction blog will probably be encouraged by all the hits from annoyed brand fans, and they’ll just do it again in a few months. Don’t assign any authority to it beyond the “industry insight” that you could come up with yourself; the author(s) at 247WallStreet may be little more than grown-up and polished versions of some of our tireless trolls here on 43rumors.
Oh, I see, it’s that old crap going viral. Really, trolls have no shame. BTW Olympus is the World leader of endoscopes, and that has always offset the losses in the camera division.
Now that cameras overcoming their own losses probably the May 2013 data are worthless.
Look up keiretsu, as regards the Japanese camera industry.
All is not lost yet.
I looked it up. It’s a sort of trust or combine, illegal in many parts of the world.
It shows that Japanese companies like to make money by controlling supplier and distributor arrangements.
If anything, it shows that money making is very important.
I know a lot of famous bloggers talk about how Japanese companies don’t care if they lose money.
Now, I don’t know anything about the Japanese, but I don’t buy it.
I don’t buy that anyone wants to see their investments worth less than they could be. I don’t see shareholders smiling benignly because corporations are deliberately manufacturing products that continuously lose money. Sure there can be a tolerance to see if a new line gains legs. But there will also be a rational slashing of non producing lines sooner rather than later.
I really want Olympus to stay solvent with their cameras. But I would like to see a little innovation. Not yet another very pricey 16MP camera with quality and size approaching what much cheaper DSLRs were able to deliver 4 years ago.
And yet the rules of the underlying culture are what makes companies like Olympus behave the way they do, and trying to predict their future behavior starts with accepting the ‘rules’ they use regardless of you understanding or agreeing with them.
“It shows that Japanese companies like to make money by controlling supplier and distributor arrangements.
If anything, it shows that money making is very important.”
Not as much as you try to make out.
Look at it this way. Its keeping it in the family and supporting and building the family. That is often more important than money at many levels.
R.I.P oly..
The fact is that IF Oly cameras is NOT going in the red Analyzts and Trolls are going to be scr*wed.
If it is it will still offset the loss with Endoscopes, that use the same factory of optics for lenses. And make a profit.
So why should it be your business, other than to smear a company? Why don’t you look at your banks going bust and making other banks abroad go bust? WS, this temple of virtue has just made the worse financial crisis of a century and you have the courage to come and *smear* a Japanese company ?
Since Woodford and his group of anglo saxon sharks failed their buy out, the pattern has been rather clear with the little blue meanies of the internet…
It’s difficult to see through the veil of mystery which surrounds any of the mainstream camera & lens producers to really get the true perspective; we see rumors articles from all angles telling of the demise of certain product, while others are telling who will be the winners … and so much is pure speculation.
Does anyone think that if any company flounders, that it will render your investment instantly useless … I don’t think so.
Maybe it still seems like a steep hill to climb, but the idea of smaller lighter kit is snowballing in popularity with many seasoned shooters switching over and selling off the heavy guns.
I can understand that certain fast DSLR’s are the mainstay of a sport or fast action pro shooter, other wise it’s a trophy to carry around exhibitions with a massive lens to endorse the macho brigade statement.
Far too much is being read and written by obsessive folk who would love to see their brand of choice come out on top and indeed would readily start a slang match to endorse that.
We need to stand back and see how the people making our equipment can steer through the shift that is happening worldwide without jumping to conclusions one way or another.
It’s time to not feel like a victim of circumstance and enjoy the pleasure of making great imagery for all to enjoy!