BCNranking (google translation here) posted the full 2013 market share analysis. In the mirrorless category Olympus is leading the group closely followed by Sony. The big change is the 9% share drop fro Panasonic. Quite a bad news!
It will be interesting to see if the Sony A7-A7r series will have a major impact on 2014 sales. My guess is that Sony could become number one in Japan!
14 Responses
Interesting link. Taking a closer look at the trends:
In mirrorless:
In the last 3 years, Olympus lost over 20% of its market share (28.9 now vs 36.6)
In the last 4 years, Panasonic lost over 63% of its market share (14.2 now vs 38.7)
In the last 4 years, Sony lost almost 18% of its market share (now 26.5 vs 32.2)
For 2011, these top three vendors controlled 100% of the mirrorless market
For 2014, these top three vendors controlled 69% of the mirrorless market
Despite owning the mirrorless market completely in 2011, they today own maybe 2/3 of the mirrorless market.
The big question is, who has come in and started to eat their lunch?
Assuming Nikon and Canon… the conclusion is that not only have Olympus, Panasonic, and Sony failed to put a dent in the DSLR market (owned by Canon, Nikon, and Pentax as a distant #3),
but they are also rapidly losing traction in the mirrorless market.
Right now there are three top sellers in the mirrorless segment, but no single manufacturers dominate, and even the leaders are quickly losing market share.
It’s starting to look like not only have the predictions of the death of the DSLR failed to materialize, but there is an increasing trend that Nikon and Canon are starting to take sales away from the others in the mirrorless space as well. And as soon as one of the PanOlySon leaves the segment, CaNikon can move in as a main player.
All of this in Japan, where mirrorless is particularly popular. How much more is this trend apparent in other parts of the world?
In mirrorless:
Your comparison is useless because the market was smaller 4 years ago less competition, less profitability and lower selling prices.
“For 2014, these top three vendors controlled 69% of the mirrorless market” which is pretty good going against Canon and Nikon
“The big question is, who has come in and started to eat their lunch?” Canikon tried and failed, expensive mistakes that haven’t recouped their development or expensive marketing costs.
“Assuming Nikon and Canon… the conclusion is that not only have Olympus, Panasonic, and Sony failed to put a dent in the DSLR market “…not worth having, let them die.
DSLRs = buyers remorse.
Mirrorless is in decline lower volumes lower market share , I take it your ID photo reflects your intellectual acumen. Canon and Nikon don’t care about the mirrorless market they are just playing with it. When DSLR;s have 82% of the share for interchangeable lens cameras.With the remaining 18% made up by the mirrorless sale is not only down but being shared by more companies. Canon and Nikon have little reason to be worried about mirrorless
Panasonic are in free-fall, Olympus share of the Declining market has fallen every year. Even a school child with a basic grasp of numbers, should grasp a very simple fact if you have a smaller share of a shrinking market .
Lets take a small leap of faith and say that the share of the mirrorless market in Japan is reflected everywhere else { it probably isn’t but it doesn’t really matter}
2013 Jan-Nov
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201311_e.pdf
2012 Jan-Nov
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201211_e.pdf
From Jan-Nov 2012 3,637,410 mirrorless cameras were sold , Olympus had {for the sake of discussion} 29.8% of these sales or 1,083,948 cameras. From Jan-Nov last year 2,988,825 mirrorless models were sold , Olympus share of the market was 28.9% or 863,770 that is 220,178 less cameras sold than the year before.
From the top selling mirrorless models in Japan list
http://www.sonyalpharumors.com/2013-sales-sony-nex-5r-is-the-most-sold-mirrorless-camera-in-japan/
We can see that other than the now discounted E-M5 the most expensive Olympus models the E-M1 and the E-P5 did not even make it into the top 20 selling list . So obviously it is the low price discounted Olympus models which are doing best.
Though the biggest shock is how the hell did the EOS M account for 9.2% sales !
It’s funny, in some ways I feel like mirrorless could have been what Apple was to the phone industry. The problem was Olympus and Panasonic started out slow, and left a lot of basic functionality to be desired, AND the prices were too high. As a result, the vast majority still don’t take it seriously. Things have improved greatly, yet there is still no entry-level mirrorless cameras that can handle the way a Canon Rebel does as the same price. This is the biggest mistake with mirrorless.
I own the E-M1, and can finally say m43 offers what I’ve wanted for a while. I argue this camera should have been built easily 2 years ago. It took a while for Olympus to listen, but I hope it’s not too late. They still have a lot of faults with the lower models.
You think that it is the EOS-M and Nikon 1 which have 31% of the mirrorless market? I’d say it is quite probably Fuji and Samsung.
Due in large part to Japanese racism Samsung products barely sell in Japan , the numbers listed comes from CIPA data that only covers Japanese manufacturers
IIRC for the Japanese market that 31% was mostly Canon who priced their EOS-M very well. Nikon was there for a similar reason and Fuji was taking a few scraps because they are very expensive in comparison.
Sadly the listing doesn’t show the volumes. Market share is a good metric, but one can’t judge whether the shipments/sales of the vendor have risen/fallen.
Well looking at CIPA data sales of mirrorless cameras are down worldwide as are DSLR sales though maybe surprisingly mirrorless sales actually fell a little more than DSLR sales.
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201311_e.pdf
In the Americas mirrorless sales are down 47% of what they were last year that is pretty drastic.The only market that shows any growth in mirrorless sales is Japan where sales are up 7% on last year alas DSLR sales are up 41%. Whatever the fanboys claim mirrorless share of the market is in decline
“In the Americas mirrorless sales are down 47%” distorted by the Nikon 1 and Canon EOS M launch and fails.
Panasonic have really pulled back their imaging and broadcast marketing budget back across the world, not a bad thing, but what they do spend on marketing needs to be more affective.
Also, there is something more utilitarian about Panasonics designs. I hate to bring aesthetics into it, but people do make decisions based on this. Olympus just makes a “prettier” camera. It’s all opinion of course, but I have watched people handle the E-P5 vs the GX-7, and you notice the difference in how people react. Same goes with E-M1/E-M5 vs GH3/G6.
Add to that the fact that in the US, Panasonic is not viewed as a camera company, and so the vast majority don’t take them seriously.
“Your comparison is useless because the market was smaller 4 years ago less competition, less profitability and lower selling prices.”
I’m sorry, but we are dealing with the numbers given in the report. Perhaps the market was smaller, but so what? Not sure what you mean by “profitability” in the context of mirrorless, perhaps that losses are greater now than they were then? What do selling prices have to do with anything?
You really don’t address any of the points I made.
“DSLRs = buyers remorse.”
Seriously, you need to address the trends identified by the numbers. Repeating hollow slogans doesn’t cut it.
I think it just reflects that GF line up became weak because Japanese market really care about those little cameras, Pentax Q sells well in Japan. So I think that with the GM1 things may change if it sells well.