Recently quite many websites posted articles about a possible big change coming soon. For the first time after ten years the DSLR market is not growing anymore and because of many reasons (economic crisis, market saturation, and so on) it is likely to shrink the coming years. Most noticeable Canon and Nikon failed to bring some major innovation while Sony is trying to innovate with concepts like the RX series (well done), QX series (bad in practice) and the A7 series (still not a mature system but it will grow fast). So let’s hear some opinions about the new tendency:
Luminous Landscape writes:
“DSLRs will diminish in market share and likely will become a niche product for wealthy enthusiasts. Mainstream enthusiasts will move to so-called mirrorless system cameras and the mass market will happily take pictures with their smartphones while uploading them in real-time to Facebook.
Sony has seen the writing on the wall better than most. So have Olympus, Fuji and Panasonic. Nikon and Canon have had an ostrich-like mentality and are therefore about to be side-swiped by a market shift of tsunami proportions. Unless their market planners grow the cojones needed to adapt to the changing marketplace, in a few short years there’ll be a lot of executives in Japan staring out the window at a train that has swiftly left the station.”
Christopher Chute (market intelligence firm IDC) predicts Nikon may be out of business in 5 years if the trend continues.
“You’re talking about a 10-15% decline in DSLR shipments all over the world. Which is kind of shocking because that market’s been growing double digits for almost ten years. Nikon recently said they have a five year plan to address this. And my view is, that five year plan should have come out five years ago. They’re not going to be around in five years.”
Andrew from EosHD writes:
“In my view, Canon are more vulnerable than anyone going forward. It isn’t just that the higher the climb, the bigger the drop at the other side – frankly their DSLR line has become boring from top to bottom.
The Sony A7 is a nail in the coffin of Canon’s full frame line-up but it’s consumer apathy which will finally close the lid.”
My opinion so far: I am always very careful with predictions. Yes, Sony created some great new cameras (RX and A7 series and so on). But honestly I do not believe Canon and Nikon are that lazy. I am sure they are right now working to fight back the Sony innovations. That said I am quite happy to lead a Sony rumor sites in such exciting times. And I already got some reliable hints about the 2014 roadmap and it sounds amazing what we will get soon. And if Sony keeps doing so (and maybe improve their support…example, better firmware upgrades) they may keep the momentum to seriously challenge Nikon and Canon High End camera market.
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Specs and Preorders in US and Canada (Click on store name to see direct preorder page):
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Zeiss 24-70mm at Amazon, Adorama, BHphoto, SonystoreUS.
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Zeiss 55mm at Amazon, Adorama, BHphoto, SonystoreUS.
70-200mm A-mount at Amazon, Adorama, BHphoto, SonystoreUS.
Sony A-Mount to E-Mount Lens Adapter at Amazon, Adorama, BHphoto.
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Asia:
A7r at Digitalrev
A7 at Digitalrev.
A7 with 28-70mm lens at Digitalrev.
220 Responses
No they need to fix there damn flash issue first. They always made good cameras but there flash system really blows.
+10000. They really need to get this VERY BASIC feature settled. It’s just illogical to have to jump through hoops to make it work properly.
Just the other night I tried to use the flash on my old, old, A700 and got the blinking eye problem – how frustrating!
OK, I rant.
You may try the 2second timer on A700. It may work.
Indeed the lag between preflash and flash is huge issue. Sony have not really fix it.
I’d be curious to know what the problems are. I’ve heard people speak of them before, but I’ve used flash on minolta and sony for over 10 years and can’t say I’ve had issues with them. The only thing that bugged me, was the preflash sync stuff which can affect macro or dark setups. I needed to add radio triggers to my setup, but the same was true with canon I used 3 years ago.
F60 overheating at 20 shots 1/1, poorly design adapters for old hot shoe system, wireless TTL, wireless Hyper sync and build in radio triggers.
Yea, yet another argument why swapping Minolta hotshoe to a new Sony hotshoe was totally dumb idea – they released one flash, it came out to be flawed, and now people are stuck with that cause there’s really no other choice for them, nor any foreseeable perspective for an improvement (I guess that’ something admin should look into instead of glancing at one of most expensive Leica lenses that isn’t even offered in A nor E-mount version – whatever there’s any replacement for HVL-F60M? (no offense admin!) ).
Well the hotshoe is not to blame for the poor thermal design.
The 43 58 and 60 all overheat faster and more often than any of canikons flash except the sb900 or something that was quickly replaced by nikon with the 910. I am very careful when I do a party with any of those sony flash. I use a nikon sb28 on my nex-6 as well but I much prefer the quick shift bounce on my 43. How hard can it be to fix this issue. They even have a place you can spend 100.00 just to fix a a 500.00 flash, WTF? If you don’t use the sony flash in a paid manor such as a party of wedding you may never have the overheating problem but you really can’t rely on there flash system doing pro work compared to any flash system.
As far as the new shoe goes I get the extra functionality but I don’t like the flash shoe. It seams easy to break and has broken as far as reports go from others that have the new flash. Even if they have to change the flash mount one more time I would care less as long as they fix the issue.The lack of off camera trigger support etc. You have to do too many work around tactics with the new shoe compared to the competition. How can you conquer the pro market if your flash system is lacking? You don’t build a house roof first. You start from the bottom. I love sony’s cameras but the flash system………
And what’re you bothered about? I did not have any issues with old Minolta flashes and new ISO shoe on NEX, not counting the issue of using a adapters on old Minolta shoes.
I’ve been shooting like the devil with my a900, six 5600HS flashes, Phottix Odin radio slave, all native to iISO hotshoe with no overheating and perfect performance. Can control all flashes from the Phottix Odin transmitter. It’s a dream come true. A magazine cover, two fashion catalogs, about two hundred portrait sessions, another magazine cover tomorrow, another thirty portraits on Saturday…
I CANNOT RISK MY CLIENT DIME ON A FLASH SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT WORK, OR WORK WITH ANYTHING!!!
Get that Sony… I’ll upgrade when you give me a reason to. Until then I’ll warn commercial togs away. Your system is nice for natural light photos of flowers and cats. But you need to bring more to the game to seduce the pros.
All that work within the past month. The iISO kit works great strong like bull.
Hey guess what… The Phottix Odin even controls the older 5400HS Minolta flash in HSS… That’s right… an old $60 used flash with native iISO shoe to work on the Odin receivers. Don’t get TTL, and don’t get anything under 1/200th SS. But for HSS, it works great even with remote Odin control.
BAM! Sony.
“market intelligence” isn’t that an oxymoron? 🙂
Here’s the problem with Sony’s A7/A7r:
1) The quantity of Initial native lens support (with quality results) is less than acceptable.
2) The quality of results (non-native lenses) is less than acceptable.
3) The previously released APS-C Nex lenses are not optimally forward compatible with full frame.
4) The tripod mount is wobbly.
5) The flashes have plastic mounts (wobble and break).
6) The low light and high speed focusing is less than acceptable.
7) The jpg’s are overly cooked (Sony’s poor algorithms).
8) The lenses are highly overpriced.
9) Backward and forward consistency is already poor.
10) 99% of all working photographers avoid Sony cameras like the plague.
Sony will no longer get my money. In fact, I wouldn’t even buy their insurance (where they make their money), even if I was still living in Japan.
That’s your reasons not everyone reasons, and your reasons for all mirrorless, and mirrorless good selling everyday.
Overprice it’s a word for poor people.
wow, you’re a real douche. “Overprice is a word for poor people.” Really?
No, overpriced is “selling crappy stuff to stupid people with money”
Absolutely agree. Fine camera for some people, but no way does it challenge Canikon.
Pro users need a system not just a nice camera. Lets face it, the Nex range has been out a number of years now and you cannot make a system with that range (with pro quality glass). That makes me think it will be a long wait for the A7/A7r to be part of a complete system.
If I have a job that requires a particular lens (native) then I need to be able to get a hold of it, whether it is a super wide or telephoto. I can’t wait several years for a lens to appear that works correctly. I tried to get away with Voigtlander 12mm with the Nex7 but when you are dealing with several hundred files from each shoot, correcting colour casts etc can add quite a bit of time to processing.
usin a word without knowin its meanin is an “οξύμωρον ideed!
The only thing I like about canikon better is they have there flash system together unlike sony.
And their lenses. Damn fine stuff. Especially Canon.
And everything else that makes a difference between “photographic system” and just “a camera”. Cause that’s what Sony got – a camera. Nothing more.
How A7 is on the way to challenge Canikon can be easily seen by dPreview stats:
– Comments below A7 first impressions: 94
– Comments below rumored soon to come Nikon DSLR: 483
/eot
But the 1st post about the A7 on dpreview had more then 1500 comments…
+9999999999999
Christopher and Andrew sound a bit apocalyptic. Christopher, more than Andrew. However, it is true that Nikon may be first in line to a real failure if they don’t diversify quickly enough. They are the ones that have a business almost completely based on stills photography. Canon can survive on its own because photography is a part of the larger conglomerate.
I don’t think it will be THAT bad, but I do think that the perception of “SLR is best because it’s closer to the pro stuff” will die and so will the consumers who will buy them.
Cameras like the RX100 provide great results for the phone upgrader.
Mirrorless applies to those who want to change lenses and get APS-C quality photos.
SLR may be only high end and semi-pro build and features appealing to those with more money and the willingness to carry the weight.
What I think it’s happening is that the market for dedicated cameras is dying. It is about carrying the camera with you and most people can’t be bothered to carry a camera when the phone is the camera they have with them 100% of the time. Also, the snap->upload->share community is the biggest and the convenience of phones in this regard is unarguable. It may be only those who wish to process their photos a bit, get the APS-C/FF/m43 look and depth of field, who may be the only consumers of dedicated cameras in the future. For that, I am happy.
“the perception of “SLR is best because it’s closer to the pro stuff” will die and so will the consumers who will buy them”
> And the consumers will die too? That is apocalyptic! 🙂
They shall die, indeed.
HAHAHAHAHA!!!
We’re ALL dying! 😉 😉 😉
I don’t think that’s what you are waiting for(dying). All you blogger here and else where are waiting for the new Sony camera to arrive. hahaha!!!
What we’re really talking about here is the consumer and prosumer market. Canon and Nikon may survive in much smaller form just to service the professional market. Most of their low end DSLR will likely evaporate, along with most of the mirrorless players. I see Sony as the lone survivor of the current mirrorless players. Look around this forums and other rumor forums, at least half, if not more will likely drop interchangeable lens cameras in the next 5 years.
I see canikon conserving their energy to survive a war of attrition. A lot of mirrorless players are expanding their line up with more expensive models just as the market is shrinking fast. Fuji comes to mind when talking about fast expanding lineup. They really don’t have the marketshare to justify it. m43 is getting ridiculous with pricing. Sony seems to have the most logical pricing and seem to have a line up with thoughts of surviving this war of attrition. Many A-mount fans are unhappy, but this is what Sony must do to survive in photography. Photography is fast approaching the point of diminishing returns. Once we hit 100mp in the next 5 years, how many will keep thinking of upgrading? It really is very much like PCs now.
I agree, though they can’t just keep cramping the MP into the sensor. I think it will be like the microprocessor business. They reached a certain speed limit with one core so now they move to multi-core. I think they might reach to 60MP for a single layer then move to a 24MP 3-layer Foveon-like sensor.
I hope that Sony will be able to break into CaNikon territory. The remaining obstacle is Sony not yet understands lenses role in customer´s choice of camera system.
CaNikon will still survive. What we see now is all brands looking att the enthusiasts segment. There are many more enthusiasts than professionals and many of them are willing to spend much money for their photography.
The two big elephants no doubt have their R&D looking at future camera system – be it SLR, mirrorless or something else. The two also make money, something the competition don´t. My prediction is that CaNikon already have surprises in pipeline. Launched when needed….
You can bet Canon had a FF mirrorless in their R&D lab when they were working on the EOS M trying to decide what way to go, the RX1 probably prompted a harder look at a FF mirrorless system.
Maybe you are correct, but it took about 9 months for Canon to release a new firmware to fix the poor AF.
Remember personal computer history…
Digital Equipment – inventor of small but very fast computers (nowadays called “workstation”) – vanished because of not understanding the developments of the nineties….
IBM – the company who “invented” what we all know as “PC” – sold that business to a chinese company….
Compaq – the company that invented transportable computers (nowadays known as “notebook” – bought by HP long a go…
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What I want to say: because a company is market leader for half a century means nothing if management doesn’t see the signs! And I’ve the feeling that Canikon managements don’t see the signs of the future in (semi)-professional photography because also most (semi)-professional photographers don’t see the future too!
And Sony management does see the future but doesn’t see the requirements of the (semi)-pros of the future…
Btw… IBM sold their PC business because it is becoming a commodity and that’s not the business they want to be in. They are still a $100B revenue company so kinda of not a good example of what you are trying to say.
Flash system and lack of lens, no.
They need to fix there flash system and come out with a fast adapter like there version 2 for nex that will auto focus with canon and nikon lenses while they build there own lineup.
Maybe they need to make Canon to Sony flash adapter too..oh wait, that’s why they changed the hot shoe.
Sony has seen the writing on the wall better than most, but that’s actually a prerequisite to challenge the big two. And Nikon is already going their way to address the evolving market – that new DF thing.
How does that camera address anything? Going all manual with retro style? I doubt that would make much of a difference. As tech progresses, you will have the same capability in a smaller package or more capability in the same package. These Sony FF offers with the added bonus as a universal platform. The new Nikon didn’t show any progress. Going back to the old style is just another fashionable thing.
Maybe we should wait until that DF is actually announced, before claiming that it didn’t show any progress? 🙂 Anyway, I am not arguing whether it will be a good or bad move. I am simply saying that it is their move, based on how they read the market.
Ya, I should wait to see Nikon implementation of the EVF. I counter your point mainly because I don’t think the DF is actually Nikon’s answer to these Sony FF mirrorless. I think they’re just testing the water for something “new” in the now “boring” DSLR offerings. I admit I’m pretty excited about the OVF/EVF hybrid thing. I prefer EVF, but there is time I would love a clear, non-distorted view of a huge OVF. Shooting with an Otus on its native system would be a huge plus as well.
It’s addressing the needs of people who want travel camera. And so in a “film” era rangefinders and smaller DSLRs filled that void – now in digital era advanced compacts (X100, RX1), mirrorless and smaller DSLRs will fill that void.
Exactly, you have all other mirrorless alternatives to fill that void. Without removing the mirror box, there is only so much you can do to reduce the size and weight for such purpose. I’m intrigued, however, with the EVF/OVF hybrid thing. If Nikon can make a good EVF, I would consider this DF. Not because of the retro style but because of the seamless liveview capability to shoot an Otus.
Rolleiflex, I find your self-expression so belligerent that it cannot but be met with a response.
While sarcasm or ad hominem might be totally appropriate, I will try to stick to substance.
The new rumored Nikon will apparently be more than “manual and retro-styled”, as you suggest.
First of all, it will apparently be just as “automatic” as any other camera, except you won’t need to menu-dive to change those settings you wish to change.
Also, the “traditional” quality should go well beyond “retro styling” to include substantive aspects like a full metal case and high-quality metal lens mount, two things that contribute to durability.
“more capability in the same package”: I would suggest that durability and ergonomics are capabilities that enable higher-level capabilities, and without them, the higher-level capabilities might as well not even exist. A different, better package DOES mean more capability.
“the same capability in a smaller package”: Small wonder you would advocate for this.
Sorry, I had to do it. You invite it. Lots of people are excited about lots of things retro, not because of the styling alone, but because in many other respects, they are perceived as being better.
LOL, Mr. everyman. Let me counter your points. I try to keep all these internet discussions lighthearted since mostly it’s my opinions. It’s not a hard fact. So don’t take it so seriously (LOL, belligerent, who would have thought).
I don’t know which digital camera you are shooting with nowadays beside the S95 (or is it A95), but I never do any menu diving to change settings while shooting. And I have shot with those “abominable” NEX. So I don’t see how that would be a plus to the new Nikon.
I don’t think any of the NEX camera or my A900, A850, A99 has plastic mount or low quality metal mount. I don’t know what you mean by high-quality metal mount. Is there any statistics on the mount/un-mount cycle you can perform on those? As for the metal housing, I thought those NEX FF already have magnesium alloy body. Unless you can show me hard data on how high of a drop those metal housing can withstand, I don’t see much point of bringing it up. It might be an illusion that you think it would last longer with those metal housings.
Lastly, all the talk about capabilities and sizes, I would say the Sony FF mirrorless has accomplished more than the Nikon DF. I wouldn’t count the metal housings and “high-quality metal mount” as added bonuses/capabilities. I would expect that when I pay $3000 for the darn thing.
And you think Nikon is not banking on the retro look as the big sale point? Have you watched all of the promo videos from Nikon?
Rolleiflex–
A95, 5dmkII, A850, M3, DSC-W290, DMC-LX5, 7000
“Unless you can show me hard data on how high of a drop those metal housing can withstand, I don’t see much point of bringing it up. It might be an illusion that you think it would last longer with those metal housings”
I have had lots of experience with lots of cameras. Metal doesn’t chip, even if it dings, and chips evolve cracks that propagate. I don’t need any data other than my own experience, to make an informed decision on the metal body issue.
“Lastly, all the talk about capabilities and sizes, I would say the Sony FF mirrorless has accomplished more than the Nikon DF.”
It’s not about what the manufacturer accomplishes, it is what the photographer accomplishes–but nice attempt to move the goalposts. I would say that still photographers have accomplished more with Nikon cameras than with Sony cameras.
I’m still excited about the prospect of a mirrorless FF A-mount implementation from Sony, even if that requires a flippable SLT.
LOL, Mr. everyman. Is this the best effort you can muster to counter my points? You selectively skipped most of my arguments cause you don’t have anything to say. You told me that the new Nikon has its metal housing as a strong feature. But as I pointed out, these Sony FF mirrorless has metal housing too. So what’s the point of bringing that up? Unless you can show me hard data that the Nikon can withstand higher fall, it’s a moot point.
And since we are talking about cameras and the merits of each (Sony FF mirrorless vs. Nikon DF), you don’t have to pull the card of “being a photographer.” It’s irrelevant, but I guess you can’t distinguish the difference. You insulted me before that I’m all talk without any decent photography skill. I gave some samples of my work and I’m still waiting for you to share your exceptional work. Let me quote you: “I have printed images from that A95 up to and including 3′ x 4′, and with some resizing like bicubic, produced excellently usable results–to the point that I have to TRY NOT TO SELL MY PHOTOS. From that A95 alone, I produced series at 8×10, 16×20, and 18×24″, and some larger…when I agreed to put them on display there was so much demand that I didn’t know what to do. I decided to sell none of them!” I’ll wait to see you backing this claim up. There is technical talk and there is artistic talk. You obviously can’t handle any (your technical knowledge is quite lacking based on many of your bold claims so far). You’re making a fool of yourself if you keep talking like this.
The internet is a great place for people like you Rolleiflex. Unfortunately, I fear that an increasing number of people won’t be equipped with the tools to see you for what you really are.
You are one of those people who probably has never actually listened to criticism, you think you know it all. Know this: I think you are pathetic, and not worth wasting my time on anymore.
Unfortunately it seems that most online fora come with a “Rolleiflex”. Dyxum keeps a pretty tight handle on things, but I will still keep visiting this site, for the valuable, interesting, and often funny insight afforded by posters other than Rolleiflex, whose contributions actually make a difference.
LOL, being such a hypocrite you are… You made bold claim that the demand for your photos is so high that you don’t even want to sell them, and then you go on and on about teaching me how a proper photographer would do. I am pretty sure people would be able to identify the pathetic person here. When people like you can’t make a valid point, they would resort to name calling. Good job. Again, you make a big fool out of yourself.
There is a bit of irony bemoaning Nikon bringing a maybe ” all manual” retro design model to the market.When the Sony models are pretty retro in design and wait for it the vast majority of posters interested in it seem to be intending to use adapted lenses from other systems.
I don’t think the design of the FF mirrorless would affect its ability to adapt the variety of lenses out there or the fact that it’s mirrorless, smaller, and lighter than all DSLRs out there. I would care less if they go with an all modern design. The Nikon DF, however, is banking on the retro feature as the main selling points. It’s pretty apparent in the promo videos.
Well, i think that it is actually true DSLRs could become a niche product, but not because of mirrorless systems but more because of smartphones!At the moment there are only few smartphones with cameras capable of totally replacing DSLRs/Mirrlorless (Nokia is on the right track here), but the number will grow rapidly in the next few years and then, if you upgrade, the only real deal would be full frame.
And i think that Canon, Nikon and Sony got that point, by introducing cheaper full frame cameras. Compact cameras for sure, but also APS-C and M43 will vanish from the market, their marketshare will be eaten by smartphones with slightly above average sensors. The decrease of DSLR shipment by 10-12% per year will continue with mirrorless cameras in the near future.
To be honest, when comparing the pictures of the Nokia 1020 with a normal DSLR/M43 camera, there is almost no difference and with future integrations like MEMS AF Systems and the fact, that all companies are investing a lot into the smartphone market, i can see them catching up to m43 in terms of IQ very soon.
So in my opinion, in 5 years, there will be only Nikon, Canon and Sony left, unlike the others will introduce some FF cameras, and half of their products will focus on Full Frame and professional photographers. The good thing about that: FF should fall in price very quickly. I think in 5 years, the cheapest FF cameras can be bought for under $800.
All others will have their 40 MPx smartphone cam…
“So in my opinion, in 5 years, there will be only Nikon, Canon and Sony left” – IMHO 5 years is way too short for such a change. 10 years might be more likely. And even than I would argue that Sigma and Fuji might also stay on a market simply because both these companies build cameras mostly for fun. Not an actual profits (even though Fuji seems to be happy with income it’s X-mount generates). And they are more than able to afford small, side projects like that.
“Well, i think that it is actually true DSLRs could become a niche product, but not because of mirrorless systems but more because of smartphones!” – That’s already happening. If people want higher quality camera – they don’t invest in DSLR, mirrorless or compact but rather Galaxy 4, iPhone 5s or Lumia 1020. It’s not a matter of what gives best quality, but what gives acceptable quality. And for many, many people smartphones already cover that.
with smartphone you cant do nice portrait with some bokeh…you can do p&s…thats it…smartphone is for FB generation
Don’t forget that 90% of the camera Sensor market, and I emphasize SENSOR, is the FB generation, who don’t know what “Bokeh” is. So yes, yet again, we are back at a square 1, where Smartphones will dominate. I already foresee for myself, In 1.5 years i’m going to replace my HTC One with something else that has a good low-light camera, and will continue to use it in clubs and on party’s, when I don’t have my A65 with me. Birthday Parties, family photos, etc. will still rely on my DSLR. Whether it will be worth to upgrade A65 in a few years is yet to be seen. The primary buying point will be APS-C sensor, that handles low light better than current sensors.
Smart phones will NOT replace large sensored ILCs. Here are the reasons:
First, and most important: Ergonomics, acamera phone is build for their phone function, the camera is an extra. So the button layout, the way you have to hold it, all are not great for photography.
Lack of options:An camera phone has no real good flash, it has no hotshoe, it has no tripod mount, it has no interchangeble lens etc.
A camera phone has no real zoom lens, so it will miss the capability of taking wildlife pictures.
Total IQ of an large sensor camera will allways be better then for the small sensored cameras. Remember IQ is more then low noise, it is DR, color rendering, lack of distortion, sharpness etc. Many of these elements can not be with a small sensored camera.
And last: the camera is allways a subset of the phone, it will never get better then a P&S camera, and that is the only camera it will replace. They did try to ut a good zoomlens in a phone, but the phone became to large for a comfortable phone, so it was no success.
Camera phones will be there for the P&S market, ILC for the more enthousiast.
DLSRs will become a nich in about 10 years. Canon and Nikon will get a hard time and lose marketshare to the mirrorless market soon.
I think that there is space in the camera market for m43 systems. Their sensor is large enough to differentiate in IQ from mobile phones and produce results which are excellent unless you print really big. The cameras may have full range of features – vide OM-D EM-1. Enough to compete with FF DSLRs. On the other hand the lenses are much smaller than for FF. I could cover all my photographic needs with just 2 zoom lenses 12-40/F2.8 and 40-120/F2.8. This will fit in a relatively small bag.
I am not sure about APS-C, but seeing how fiercely loyal are Canon 7D users, it makes me think that APS-C will survive too.
I think it’s almost childish to take a stab at canikon or any other brand right now. Just because the A7 release? DSLRs are here to stay whether you like it or not. Totally different market. Sony could not compete with the big two (canikon) and had no other choice to try something else. I don’t think that’s being innovative per se, it’s all about business survival.
Ofcourse I give props to Sony for being the first releasing a small FF interchangable lens camera, similar to how Fuji tested the market with the X100, before releasing the X-Pro1. Sony did the same thing with the RX1, you knew the FF NEX was coming sooner or later. I think the A7 is a great camera, but the dealbreaker for me is the new e-mount and the lack of lenses. (yes, not all of us own fancy MF/RF lenses) Canikon shooters will never make the jump to Sony when their lens line up is so weak. So all this talk about coffin, nails, and killing things off? Don’t be deluded.
There was some hiss about new super-ultra-mega-hyper AF system (sensor shift). That AF system could shake Canon and Nikon, yes. But new A7 is without sensor shift. Lenses are only few (and expensive, I would preffer to buy Canon 35 f/2 with IS instead of Zeiss f/2.8 without IS). Using MF/RF lenses is very oldschool and slow as hell.
So either more lenses at affordable prices or hopefully third-company options (Sigma/ Tamron). At this moment Canon and Nikon are doing fine. I own Nikon at this moment (I had Canon as well and I couldn’t wait for silent 35mm f/2, new 35mm f/2 of Canon is finally silent – hurray!).
Totally agree with you. How many fast lenses does mirrorless cameras have. f2.8 is the standard aperture that pros prefer, as that leaves a lot of room to experiment with. And with the advent of f1.8 zoom lenses, it tells you only one story faster lenses are the future.
People are blowing things out of proportion. More and more people moved to dslrs as they wanted professional looking images and professional look alike cameras. The mirrorless cameras don’t offer any of that. Pros moving to these mirrorless offerings is gone be a question on its own as I don’t see anyone of those people carrying any currently. Every pro praises of them for light weight and compactness, but none of them have replaced their kit.
More over the amount of dslr glass in the market is huge, move to any mirrorless system means dumping all that, which is big question by itself as people invest in glass bodies come and go. Adapters offer you to strap these lens on but won’t juice out its full potential.
So its more so like this, yes these mirrorless cameras becoming big is like a stream flowing uphill.
Totally agreed. With everything.
I really don’t think the DSLR decline will be as quick or as definite as cited in the quotes above. However, for the first time, I think Sony has released a product that will gain enough magnitude to make CaNikon react strong and fast.
+1
What A7r offers is lack of AA filter on the sensor, which makes it sharper than others. But nikon has already started to cover tht ground, they have couple of cameras without the AA filter, and now they have launched another one in shape of D5300. Means more sharpness to the masses and not just for the elite.
Sensors are all shared by all the companies, which means the newer sensors can be plugged in any of the nikons or canons, and you are back in the game. Its no hidden technology that Sony A7r offers, that nobody else can offer.
Canon is definitely not resting on its laurels. The 70D is ample evidence of that.
Just think how much more effective their on-sensor PDAF will be with bigger sensils and more processing horsepower.
People writing them off are jumping the gun, in my opinion.
Nikon has already shown via their 1-series that they fully understand the issue at hand and have put an inexpensive foot into the water.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Aptina[or Toshiba???] is to deliver a FF sensor with super PDAF on it. They could throw this out at the low end of the market to test acceptance and then nail it with full-blown entrance into the Pro market.
There’s far too much at stake for CaNikon to NOT take action.
People will keep on saying the same about Canon simply because each of their DSLRs is black.
They should pay attention to Nikon.
And release red version of their Rebel series.
Somehow it makes people complain less about “boring upgrades”.
I suspect they have something up there sleeves. They have enough of the market to stay number one or maybe drop to number two. They could just be watching and making sure what they come up with will bet better although that may backfire but I guess only time will tell.
Well they did wait and came with the boring EOS-M, what was to little to late. No catchy new features, not a wide choice of lenses, not excelling over the rest of the market and way to high priced. So they sell it now without any proffit.
Look at Sony cameras, they hold their value much longer (Canon EOS-M with 18-55mm zoom dropped from $849 to $325, Sony Nex 5r dropped in the same time from $750 to $475) When Canon is not comming soon with a real answer to the A7 then they will loose that market too.
There is no rumor for any upcomming Canon mirrorless camera at the moment. So maybe they try it with an mini DSLR as they did it with the EOS-SL1, and then they will loose again…
The RX1 and a7/a7r are luxury items and aren’t an option for 99% of photographers.
90% of all photographers use only phones. So the RX1/A7/r are ok for 20% of the 10% left.
LOL to the power of n !!!
Don’t underestimate this obvious statement: “the best camera is the one you have with you”. I agree with this completely. Many times my phone camera saved me and let me make photos when DSLR/ mirrorless were absent (I was on a walk with phone only).
Lol
By the only fact that in the question there are concerns about how you look compared to two other maior trademarks (nikon and canon) clearly the answer is : No!, Sony Gained not the right momentum to challenge Nikon and Canon.
When the well-deserved and true success will come there is no need to worry about competition in this way; In-fact Sony is shadowed (in camera market) by an inferiority complex poorly repressed.
and.. is the same question from the a900 times XD LOL
I think we can add Nikon to that list if the FD (or whatever it’s called) is a true kickback to the old film days but in a mirrorless system. Canon seems to be the only one now that needs to catch up in this area.
As Andrea said ” And if Sony keeps doing so (and maybe improve their support…example, better firmware upgrades) they may keep the momentum to seriously challenge Nikon and Canon High End camera market”
^^^ I totally agree with Andrea here. If Sony keep continue with their innovations along with setting up a worldclass support system like the one CaNikon has and with timely Firmware updates, cut down/lower the lens prices, etc., I see bright future for Sony ahead. Of course, 2014 will determine in which direction is Sony heading with their pro A-mount cameras and so on…
Sony – make cheap, plastic 35 f/2 for A7, and i’m in. Also 14mm fixed would be greatly appreciated.
Sony’s biggest weakness and vulnerability is their inability to support EXISTING customers. They’re so focused on new models that they neglect those who have already bought into the system – specifically Firmware Updates. Look at Canon and Fuji recently. Their updates for the 7D and X100 were major updates for what Sony would consider “old” models. I am NOT going to buy a new camera every time the latest version comes out. These are not disposable and either is my income! If you are loyal to us, we will be loyal to you! It’s a pretty simple business model.
+1 expect A7stuvwxzy…coming soon.
Well said!
well it may be nice to get a firmware updates with new features but remember the “old days”:
the Canon FT was “updated” to the FTb but nothing like a “firmware update” (free of charge or having to buy) was available…
the Canon AE1 was upgraded to the AE1p – same procedure…
old Leicas (the I, II and III series) could be “upgraded” to newer versions – but only by Leitz and by charging you something you could nearly buy a Nikon F body for…
——–
This possibility of getting firmware updates with new features is very nice but why should a company really do that (besides of correcting some failures)?
So, because they couldn’t do it to an AE1 30 years ago, they shouldn’t do it now???????
Do you expect Mercedes, BMW or Honda to deliver you a firmware update – free of charge – to deliver you new features or more power for your 2012 model?
And well – it would be possible to do that – but really I’ve never heard a single customer to cry for such a thing…
+1
Well, if you want to use that analogy, my 2011 Buick Regal was in twice for Firmware Updates to the car’s processor – once to improve starting, another to improve idling. A third time they totally revamped and improved the Nav system. By your logic, they should have told me, “too bad – just buy a 2014 if you want improvements”. IT’S CALLED CUSTOMER SERVICE WHICH IS MY WHOLE POINT.
Is the A7R a Canon Mark III killer?
Sony is a schizophrenic company. There are wonderful designs (RX1) and then there are some really questionable ones (NEX-7, A7, A7R). I feel like in the bowels of the engineering and design department, there are some real great minds that appreciate classic camera design, but then sometimes the tweeker-headed engineers get in the way and convince marketing to do silly things. There is no doubt that DSLR is on the way out, but I wouldn’t write in Sony to be the default champion just because they are the first to the table – although I agree, yes, they may have the momentum to finally do so. Not to be all crab cakes, I think some pretty wonderful features are in the A7 / A7R too.
I agree with the warners. Canon and Nikon have showed little innovation in the last 5 years. Just the same all over again, which is “a little bit more for the same price”. Canon have been particulary arrogant, and their sensor technology is far from being state of the art. DSLRs are a leftover of the film era. They survived greatly in the last 10 years, but technolgy starts to be ready for a shift.
Mirrorless systems are “almost there” now. Seen the low weight and size, this will be enough for many.
I predict that in 5 years DSLRs are a dead bread. Many will still own them, but nobody will want them anymore.
Indeed! Sony needs to support firmware updates. Sure thing. And they need a good backupprogram for professional photographers. Just bringing new inovative cameras won’t donthe trick. Besides …. I’m sure Canon and Nikon are NOT asleep.
Sony has gained momentum in the e-mount compact market. I think the real determining factor will be what they do with their alpha line-up. The SLT’s were polarizing to existing users and were flawed by soft video, buffer speed and bad battery life.
Sony needs to find a way to bring their innovations to the market without scaring people away at the same time. A perfect example would be the use of OVF’s. Yes, EVF is great and works wonders under the right conditions. It doesn’t matter in that many Canikon users will never use it. You also aren’t giving customers the choice either. For those you gain you loose just as many.
Lastly, they need to focus on absolute IQ for the next alpha. This before video. Sony must be class leading- period.
Sony already beats Canon when it comes to stills IQ. I say this as an owner of the 5D3.
Canon has fallen way way way behind when it comes to IQ at base ISO. There have been no advancements in dynamic range during the last 6 years, and Canon sensors still suffers from shadow banding.
I’m getting the A7R soon, and I suspect I won’t be using my 5D3 after that.
And no, I don’t care about state of the art AF. 🙂
It’s been like that for years. People don’t care. Sony DSLR from 2010 is better than Canon 70D. Both in terms of high ISO shooting and low ISO image quality. Sony got an advantage over Canon pretty much since A550 came out on a market. But noone cares nor will care. Because Sony doesn’t build a system. Something Canon is brilliant in.
Lens is all. Indeed.
Therefore I truly hope that A7R can take my EF glass adapted without loosing too much IQ (preferably no IQ loss at all).
Sony sensor and Canon lenses together. Best of both worlds!
No – it’s not glass or IQ or ….
It’s just marketing!
Go to a mall and enter some electronics/photography outlet (like Media Markt/Saturn in Germany) and listen to what those “sales people” tell customers…
Sony should invest a bunch of money both in some of the “beautiful people” aka “stars” showing Sony cameras in public (not in paid TV ads) and in incentives for sales people…
Base ISO. I didn’t take this into consideration. That’s interesting and something I didn’t know. Given that I shoot at 100-400ISO most of the time that’s a huge plus for me. Nice.
Maybe if you shot through Zeiss glass. Sony lenses are rubbish. Biggest weakness for Sony.
Nonsense, Sony has some excellent lenses in both A and E mount
Canon lens crappy … more.
Well there might be some IQ differences, but only in the DXO/measurbation camp. I am not even sure Sony get their colours right, which is hard to measure. Canon surely does. Those of us who actually take pictures will not be bothered, or might prefer Canon for all the other reasons, or for the better colours, or both.
The trouble is, all the Sony cams I tried have some annoying flaws, as if they were rushed to the market without enough testing. I hate their EVFs, buffers, menus, battery life, flash system, build quality.
I am surprised so many people here only look at one parameter to judge a whole system, which is complex and cannot be broken down to one or two numbers. It’s like buying a car over another because it has a little more displacement, regardless of all the rest.
Build quality? Really? Most reviews state the A99 is one of the best built pro cameras out there. Have you seen Canon’s offerings? Plastic mirror flapping garbage.
Yes, I used both, touching those things beats reading about them. The A99 looks and feels like a toy, the Alpha 900 felt proper. It is also a matter of taste, of course, for example I could not stand that awful viewfinder, others might like it – especially those who read about, sorry I could not resist.
+1
Sony build quality greater than canon.
You are not alone with your opinion about the A99 EVF. People who also used the A900 OVF know the difference all too well. To me too the false colours in the A99 EVF are unacceptable.
+1
Everything about the a99 feels cheap. To me, the only pro thing in it is the sensor.
I shoot 30 weddings a year and countless smaller, editorial and commercial jobs, and unless SONY comes out with an A-Mount camera in 2014 that really outdoes the a99 in every single way, I’ll just stick with my a900. That camera is a beast and I love it. You’ll have to pry it from my cold, dead hands.
I was actually talking with David McLain at a party in Las Vegas in March during the WPPI conference and while he’s a big fan of his a99, he agreed with me that the EVF could be better. And. Bigger! As in… Why the OVF reminiscent size constraints? If the viewfinder can be whatever size SONY wants, why not make it as big as a Contax 645 OVF? Or even better, make it as big as a Pentax 67 OVF. Heck, make it as big as a 4×5 camera’s ground glass!!! Bigger is BETTER. We wouldn’t need software features like focus peaking of we could just SEE what we were looking at well enough to trust our manually focusing skills!
Anyhow. I hope they make me a good camera. But either way. I’m fine. I’m creating the best work of my life right now (with my a900) and I think all of us would be well advised to worry less about our gear and worry more about taking better pictures!
Cheers!
Ben
Wow, that would be impressive if EVF could get 1,5x magnification instead of 0,72x. That would shake Canon/Nikon. It could be sort of Medium Format experience. Hmmmm…
Canon and colors shouldn’t be mentioned in the same sentence.
😉
“The Sony A7 is a nail in the coffin of Canon’s full frame line-up but it’s consumer apathy which will finally close the lid.” – pure BS. Right now 5D mk III is the most popular DSLR on flickr. Even Nikon with all it’s attempts to make their cameras look attractive and beat Canon in specs can’t say the same.
And Sony with it’s A7 is nowhere near coming close to any of big 2. Stupid NEX 5WhateverLetterOfAlphabetWeHaveForThisMonth got higher chances of approaching Canikon than A7 does. That’s a sad truth. Admin got so sucked into Sony marketing hype machine that he slowly looses contact with what’s outside, in a real photography world.
The sad part: They gain market share not because of better cameras, but because of innovative cameras. People apparently have grown bored with photography, so now they want all kinds of in-camera gimmicks instead of a proper viewfinder – to name but one thing. Sony never picked up on Minolta’s 200 mm macro lens, they killed the macro ring flash (replacing it with an LED contraption), and they did away with the best optical viewfinders in the market. Finally, they abandoned the best hotshoe-design ever, so we could mount huge microphones on minuscule cameras – instead of just making a proper microphone plug.
Both Canon and Nikon are dead to me. I will never buy another mirrored camera and they offer no alternatives, so… see ya
There aren’t enough affordable FF mirrorless lenses out there for this to be serious just yet. SLRs still have tons of lenses on the market. This is certainly a game changer, but people may be cautious to get Sony gear after the way they seem to have killed the SLR alpha system. Some people presumably invested heavily in that system, only to see Sony jump to NEX and now a7. Not convinced Canikon are going anywhere for pros yet.
I’ve said it before: Sony: put a cell phone in the rx100 !!!! Best of both wotlds
I don’t see Sony as competing with Nikon/Canon at all.
Seems to me Sony is out there all by itself driving innovation and creating new
segments with the RX1, QX10 and A7.
There simply isn’t anything comparable to RX1 or QX10 on the market right now.
As for A7, it is a truly unique and more advanced system than any DSLR.
Also Sony is the only camera manufacturer in a position to tightly integrate
their camera with the smartphone eco system (Wifi/NFC/Apps).
For me it’s an obvious choice to go with a company that is driving innovation
and continues to execute their ideas.
From my observations (I live in southern California, so I go to a lot of tourist spots), there’s still a market for cameras with zooms. For taking pictures of food and random photos, it’s pretty obvious cell phones have replaced the point and shoot. But at destination spots (zoo’s, national parks, museums, etc) I still see a good number of people with actual cameras and entry level dslrs. I really think people still view cameras as higher quality images and special occasions call for something other than a cellphone.
The main problem is there are a lot of OLD cameras out there. People don’t feel the need to update ever 2 years. They’ll be updated eventually but this isn’t like the transition from film to digital. You’re going to need something groundbreaking to get masses to switch.
Inovation are the keys! Keep going Sony!
I think the A7 and A7$ are groundbreaking. I’m a dedicated Alpha user with some good glass, but even these cameras have me thinking. I don’t want to ditch the alpha lens options nor use an adaptor though. I guess I’m another guy sitting on the fence to see what happens next year with Sony’s alpha cameras. Until then, I’ll wait it out.
not yet , but sony closing the gap on canon and Nikon, and that will happen early to mid next year when Sony will introduce the new dslr like mirrorless alpha A mount, with higher specs , better capability than the a7/r five axis stabilizer a must . I guess that some of these cameras will have the E mount and a sony E TO A mount convertor, sony should improve support and software updates , such gear will be an excellent replacement for the competition. and last there will be tens of new third party lenses for a and e mounts.
I think the hybred a..e mount will be rhe more important product in terms of enticing canon and nikon users.
up to now, I still can not totally understand why Canon could be that famous, their camera SUCKS so BADLY! (from an ex-Canon shooter)
Really? And what Canons did you shoot? Or you simply read about them?
Canon 5D mark II with 50 1.2L, 85 1.2L mark II, 35 1.4L, 24-70 2.8L, 100-400L, 70-200 2.8L IS mark 2, 17-40mmL, 100mm 2.8L Macro, all color and skin tone turned out wrong! and image looks SOFT! even compared to Sony A100. not mentioning AF sucks, it used 5D mark 1 AF system, is that enough?
Canon is not dead yet, but it is sure no match for A7/r cameras. They are just a level higher than anything currently on the market. For 2014 Sony is going to introduce high-end A9/r cameras for A-mount. That will finish Canikon, if they won’t come up with groundbreaking tech. I highly doubt that Canon is capable of doing this.
+1 😉
Whoever cannot take good pics with that gear should find another hobby. But you probably never touched it, thus is the internet.
Contrary to popular belief the mirrorles market is also in decline the latest CIPA data { the only numbers that really tell the whole story}.
The numbers show that in the first 9 months of this year worldwide
shipment volume of DSLR were 81.8% of what the were last year and the shipment volume mirrorless was 81.1% of last years volumes over the same period.
While mirrorless sales did well in Japan this was the only area where shipments were higher than last year. In some areas notably USA , while DSLR shipments were down to 81% of what they were the previous year mirrorless was down to 53.6% of what they were the previous year.
83% of the interchangeable camera market are DSLR with the remaining 17% shared between Olympus,Panasonic.Sony, Fuji ,Nikon and Canon. Even when Terada of Olympus openly stated sales of Pens have been doing poorer than expected and are down 12% the mFT crowd are still saying it is a success.The financials of all the companies with major mirrorless output are doing pretty badly. It is the whole camera market that is in trouble not just DSLR
Data source
http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201308_e.pdf
Maybe my view is a bit simplistic, but I see the biggest single driver of change to DSLR market as the integration of stills and video.
I know that’s so ‘2008’ (it was the ‘hot trend’ 5 years ago)… but I don’t feel we’re ‘there yet’, that we’re still travelling down that road, and that we still have a way to go there (yes, ‘still-photographer-purist’ – I hear you yelling ‘sacrilege’ at me)
And so, I think for that to happen, the mirror-box has to go.
Here’s what my crystal ball shows 10 years from now…….
– Sony will be very well positioned to be a leader in this integrated future.
– Canon and Panasonic will remain strong competitors in this market, though Canon’s market share will be significantly less compared to what it is today.
– Nikon cameras will become more ‘niche’ product catering to the still photographer purists. A smaller, shrinking market, but they’ll be able to survive there, their area of speciality.
– Olympus will consolidate with Sony.
– Fuji, though riding-high right now, will face rough times ahead. They will be purchased by Samsung
– You will find love and romance, but beware of strangers claiming to know the future 🙂
😀 😀 😀
😀
Unless Sony starts offering lenses that normal mortals can afford, they will never truly challenge Nikon or Canon. For instance, to get a decent f1.8 normal lens for an A7 I would have to come up with more than a thousand dollars. For Nikon or Canon I can get a decent f1.8 normal lens for 10% (!!) of that price.
Of course I’m referring to decent 50mm f1.8 lenses WITH AF here.
Fully agree. All this talk about crappy CANIkon cameras (which certainly isn’t true, they all make excellent images
with differences mostly seen during pixel peeping) neglects the most important factor: lenses. A good sensor cannot
show its potential with bad lenses. Maybe Sony’s lenses are just too new, it takes some time for the prices to drop.
Is it easier to develop a mirrorless Nikon given the knowledge they already have or to build up a large armada of (affordable) lenses? Do the big companies make their money mostly with expensive pro lenses? To win customers over affordable but good glass is needed!
For most people cell phones maybe enough and will certainly provide for nice pictures for web posting.
What about DOF, varying situations during travel (street, landscape, etc.). For me its only a toy.
I think Sony’s non-zeiss lenses in most cases are affordable (outside of the 70-200mm upgrade. It’s those crazy Zeiss prices. 1500.00 for a 50mm prime? Are you kidding me?
It doesn’t matter though. Sigma’s ART series is going to really put a hurting on Sony’s lens line-up. The 35mm is simply astounding for what you pay. Next up, new versions of all their prime offerings hundreds less than those Zeiss equivalents.
Well, while the newer Sigma lenses are very nice (price compare to quality), still no way they are comparable with Carl Zeiss lenses IMHO.
That’s the thing…they are comparable. The ART series is at least.
If I had the money, I would buy the 50mm planar in a second. The only reason I ever considered getting a Sony camera was because they have Zeiss AF lenses. If Sony didn’t have those, there would be no competition, because both Canon and Nikon’s lenses are FAR superior than the standard Sony lenses.
Agreed. I have the 135 1.8 and will have the 50mm. However, I won’t pay full price for it. I saw a 50mm Zeiss go for 1100 on ebay yesterday- it was a buy it now too. I didn’t grab it because the seller wouldn’t answer my emails. I would pay 1300 (no tax and no shipping). I’ll get it for that eventually.
I think the strategy of making high quality lenses is better
People who want cheaper will usually buy third party anyway.
That being said the true universal CAMERA is the crucial first step..only when non sony users own a sony camera do they stand any chance of buying a sony lens.
The idea that canikon are doomed while mirror less will survive because of lack of innovation is just plain fanboyism. The truth is that all non smartphone camera makers are in the same boat. The market used to be an ocean. Now, the market is quickly shrinking to a small pond. DSLRs and mirror less are shrinking. Mirrorless is actually shrinking faster. The trend of mirror less cameras like the OMD costing more than a low end DSLR will only accelerate the trend. There will always be a need to service the professional market. One of the big two or both will survive, but they will do so in a much smaller form. I don’t think many of the mirror less players will be making cameras anymore. In fact, if I were to guess, Sony will be the only mirror less player left in 5 years. The early hype stage of mirror less is over. It’s time to sober up to the reality that ALL camera markets are shrinking fast, including mirror less.
Mirrorless is the future. When Sony develop fast autofocus without mirrors or slt’s, and better EVF, one camera with that techonology and a big, dslr shaped body (for big lenses and ergonomics) will be unbeatable. M4/3 mirrorless cameras have great autofocus, but their sensors aret smaller than APSC. It is Sony’s work to maintain force on the engine until reach glory 😀 !
Even more: Sony is approaching Full Frame to masses, and their prime camera, the A7x, is ergonomic for pros, with the vertical grip. One more step in the right direction.
Yeah. A vertical grip is all I need for professional work.
Just an example as to why the Sony will only reach a limited portion of the pro market (some pros will buy them – I bet a lot of landscape photographers have been waiting for this kind of camera for a long time) : no direct access to AF point selection. But the list could go on.
Well, about the grip, I said what I said. Read carefully.
It’s more appropriate to stay mirrorless is Sony’s future. I’ve been on the mirrorless bandwagon for quite some time, but I don’t believe prism boxes will disappear any time soon. Pros tend to view their equipment on an objective basis, and many of them like the feel of optical viewfinder. It’s only a matter of time before these companies decide investing to improve products for a shrinking market doesn’t make any sense. The question is will mirrorless tech get good enough in time before investment in tech drops off because of demand slack? Unfortunately, we’ve seen this play out before with PCs and smartphones. Once the free fall starts, it accelerates.
I hope Sony can bring up FF E-mount AF up to the OMD performance before the bottom drops out. I truly do not believe Fuji and m43 will be making cameras in 5 years. Sony will. Canon and Nikon probably will. Let’s just enjoy the Sony innovation these next couple of years.
Well, I am in agreement that firmware updates is essential for enthusiast consumer. There is some flaws in more or less recent cameras. One specially incovenient is the displaying in NEX from 5N… if someone see the same scene with an “old” 3 or 5, and with the 5N or the 7, there is much difference in the grain and clearness…in favor of the old!!!
One curiosity: after FIVE great firmware updates, in NEX-3 or 5, when using the amplified focusing, the flash is ALWAYS setting in max power and out of control XD
Sorry for my english 🙂
Andrea, you have written a while ago that there would come something new from Sony that also Nikon and Canon people would like. Did you refer to the A7(r) by that?
DSLRs are here to stay, but what is happening to PC’s will happen to DSLR’s. Look how fast the PC market is shrinking. Who would have believed that just two years ago? Nobody! Tablets are already outselling PCs. The iPad equivalents of the camera world will become more popular and less and less people will buy dedicated pro/semi-pro cameras, that’s for sure.
What bothers me with current camera offerings is this;
iPhone 5S sells for £629. It weight 128g. It has 1560 mAh battery build in. It has 4 inch touchscreen. It has 32 GB build in storage. It has Wi-Fi. It has GPS. It has LTE. Bluetooth. Fast processor. And it’s running a mobile operating system with apps like iPhoto, Flickr and Instagram for on-the-go sharing and editing.
But what about the Sony NEX-5T for example? It costs £599. It weights 218g (body only). No build in battery, no build in storage, no GPS and compared to iPhone, a low quality touchscreen. Software wise the iPhone is light years ahead. Not that you should have Facebook on your camera, but they definitely should be more capable. What about transferring the photos back to your computer or backup solutions? What about third party developers? Firmware updates? Customer service? Accessories?
And don’t get me wrong, I don’t want my camera to behave like my smartphone. They are used differently. But is the memory cards really the right (and only) way to go? Shouldn’t GPS be a de facto standard on cameras? Could the camera firmwares be more capable? Does cloud backup on camera make any sense? Is the user experience the best possible? Could cameras have more sensors (and I’m not referring to the CMOS sensors here) build in? These are the questions camera manufacturers should – in my opinion – be thinking about!
So far only Canon and Nikon are making a significant profit (although shrinking) from their (boring) camera division. And let’s remember ourselves that they are developing all the necessary technologies for a quick and determined push in the mirrorless market when they’ll really need to go in that direction (they both have PDAF on sensor for example).
I don’t think they’re waiting just because they want to protect their DSLRs sales. I think they’re also waiting because they can clearly see that right now no mirrorless cameras manufacturer has been able to find the right recipe to “make it happen” in the market (themselves included). IMHO most likely because so far they haven’t been able to decide whether they want to make them better compacts or smaller DSLRs (and I think the answer likely is neither direction).
I feel that this decline in DSLR sales is just a cycle. Market saturation is probably maxed (for now) and the new generation (or new batch) of casual photographers start out with cellphones and value portability. A certain percentage of this population will eventually get more serious and graduate into more sophisticated systems. There are also emerging markets out there that are not fully tapped yet (emerging economies with increasing buying power). The world’s population is also increasing, lol.
Sony currently has a sensor thats a little better than anyone elses…that advantage wont last long.
What sony needs to accomplish in 2014 is to firmly establish the universal nature pf thier cameras ( that non sony users can use them. )
Meanwhile they need to maintian a sensor that is better than the competition.
The universal type features are crucial to success…ibis…z shift….e mount…hybred mount.
In 2015 the camera world will be totally transformed…
Everyone will be introducing new tech super high res cameras….stacked organics are being developed by multiple players including sony.
Canon has a 120mp prototype that apparently they develpped a couple of years ago.
A new super high mp competition will occur in 2015.
Whether you agree with it or not it will happen….
If sony emerges on the top of this competition AND has established a reputation for universal cameras that work with all lenses they could pull ahead…if not tje wont.
Harsh as this is to say sony will succeed or not based on the strength of thier cameras not thier lenses.
The cameras must be in photographers hands first before they will buy sony lense.
Sonys new tech high res sensor needs to be the best and they need to produce it first.
Then they need to stay ahead.
Do all this and sony could become the leader…good luck.
Admin
Great post…makes the site more varied and interesting.
Now can you please get my comment out of moderation as i am anxious to discuss this topic. Thanx
Anything is possible. But let’s put some numbers on things just to put it in perspective. Through the end of August, retail cash register receipts analyzed for ALL interchangeable lens camera sales (DSLR and mirrorless) show something about like this:
Nikon: 43%
Canon: 41%
Sony: 8%
Others: 8%
As good as a Sony A7 might be, a US$1700+ camera isn’t going to distort those numbers very much, very fast. And if they do, I’m pretty sure both Canon and Nikon would respond first with price cuts and second with competitive models to whatever is eating into their dominance. To think otherwise would be to think that both companies are inept, and I don’t think that’s the case.
Note that Sony’s suffering from the overall camera market meltdown, too. They’ve been burned badly at the lowest end and have gone from being first in compact sales to third. The problem is that those could be lost sales forever, which is why Sony tried the QX thing. Someone who’d buy a US$299 compact isn’t going to suddenly buy a US$1700 mirrorless camera. They either will do without, buy something at the price point they were at, or move slightly up to something a bit more expensive. Sony’s A3000 is an attempt at trying to win that customer, but while it hits the price point, it misses the size/weight point.
As I’ve written on my sites, Sony is trying any and everything to find traction. I applaud that, actually, but they need to find that traction and then key everything to those traction points very quickly now.
The meat and potatoes is the US$400-1000 price points. You won’t dominate the market without dominating them.
How would a product like this affect current aps c emount performance on an a7?
Kenko 1.4X Teleplus 4 AF Extender for Minolta/Sony by Kenko http://www.amazon.com/dp/B003EK5WHO/ref=cm_sw_r_udp_awd_0sTBsb1A9WT6Q
Na mate you got it wrong : The Kendo adaptor for sony minolta is A mount so you cant mount E mout to it .
So all you can do with the 1.4 TC is add it to the A mount lenses ,
Add the lense and TC to the Phase detect Alpha to NEX E mount module .
But TBH you loose light from the TC extention and resolution and then more light loss to the the STL Mirror .Iv read on a fourum that you better off using the light to lower the ISO giveing you maximup IQ then you can crop in .
As adding a tc gives you a lil extra reach but the IQ is degraded limiting how much you crop before you see all the inperfections of extra elements and Hi er ISO levles compensating for the light loss ect ect
Hope that helps
I have been using Canon and Nikon for many years. I jumped into the NEX lineup, after lots of research. I used an NEX5N until Sony started shipping the 7 after the tsunami. Sold 50lbs of 5d mkII & heavy everything,when I fell in love with the NEX7. I really think that Sony’s real weakest link is their customer service and service centers, which are located in the Philippines and Laredo Tex/Mex. What a circus that is, and I speak from experience. I have a A7r on order and hope I never have to send it in for repair: Larry
Unfortunately Nikon service is not much better, and I am also speaking from experience, having pre-ordered a D800 with left AF issue and having to send it in twice to have it come back still in obvious bad shape. If getting a Nikon, I would also hope never have to deal with Nikon service center, but that seems less likely in recent years as I read high incidence with dust issues on the D600 also.
So far I have not had any issues with my RX1 so I feel Sony did pretty good job on their QA prior to shipping. Expecting the same level of quality from the a7r I have on pre-order.
Here in Germany Sony has kind of not so good reputation for service over Canikon but my experience is quite the opposite:
Both Canon and Sony share the same service partner in southern Germany.
My little backup A55 finished here life after more than 120.000 picures (translating to around 180.000 shutter releases – SLT and EVF…) two months before end of warranty.
Had it back in three days (where two of those days were shipping…) and they also readjusted some AF issues with the 1.4/50 (I asked for that and sended the lens to them too).
At the same time two Canon 5DMkII users I know had their cameras sent to the same service partner and waited around 3 weeks for getting the babies back (because of lack of repair parts Canon couldn’t deliver in time …)
This is rediculous.
Sony is doing NOTHING to capture the pro market, A7x will only cement their already established dominance in the mirrorless segment.
Canon/Nikon don’t really care about mirrorless, so they have no reason to worry about A7x.
Smartphones are killing the compact camera market and probably the APS-C market, but Canon/Nikon are really famous for their FF DSLRs. Sony is no competition here at the moment 🙁
I think there is a lot of truth here. The SLR was a revolution over older cameras because it actually let you see through the lens in a compact package. Now, the ILCs let you see through the film. It’s the final step. I think the a7 is going to be the first camera that really gets you a near SLR experience in terms of AF speed and image composition through the EVF. And, this is the D1 of ILCs in FF. It is only going to get better. It may not be enough to change the camera in the hands of the professionals today, but in a few years, nobody will be carrying around a mirror.
You still see people running around with medium format cameras and rolliflex cameras, but that is just because it is their hobby. If Cannon and Nikon don’t make adjustments, they will be hobby companies rather than imaging powerhouses.
You are absolutely right!
In the Sixties a “true professional” either had a Rolleiflex or a Leica here in Germany but really not such “Japanese crap” called Nikon F!
And what happened in the Seventies?
Leica becoming a luxury gadget and Rolleiflex vanished… and the Canon F1 changed sports photography… and nearly every professional used Canon or Nikon (and some Minolta 🙂 )
Now history is kind of repeating – with Canon/Nikon in the role of Rollei and Leitz and Zeiss-Ikon (the camera brand – not the lenses)…
And Leitz “borrowed” technology from Minolta for their SLRs and the Leica CE – but nobody in Europe wanted to know that…
I’m also skeptical whether Sony will really drive the market. It’s all up to the marketing team. It’s up to marketing to market something as stupid as 64-bit on iPhone. A useless addition that ends up driving the market.
You obviously don’t know what 64-bit means, do you?
Yes, Apple sold 9 million iPhones in three days because they have a good marketing team. Maybe all camera manufacturers should change their marketing teams then.
The camera of the future ( 2 years from now ) will have a different sensor technology and very high resolution.
All the players will be competing with versions of this concept.
The future is Sony cameras with Sigma lenses.
+1 with one caveat: I would say the future will be mirror less cameras and right now, Sony currently leads the pack in that market segment. As far as lenses, I would say that Sigma leads the pack on optically good glass that covers a wide range of mounts. Now, if Sony could stop making cameras as answers to firmware updates and give their currents cameras a longer shelf life and somehow garner an exclusive deal with Sigma for budget friendly quality glass, then that is a win win recipe for success.
Please excuse my grammar…typing this on a cell phone.
+1
waiting for Nikon DF… Pure Photography, just to compare…
Z-shift will be huge for Sony if they ever bring it out
Totally Im going to hang onto what I have until it comes out .I have this feeling that not only will it focus other mounts but with sony glass the lense AF and the camra AF will work at the same time to make unrivaled AF speed ; D
That would be interesting. I like it.
I think Sony’s biggest problem in general is that they bring incomplete products to the market.
First they went from SRL to SLT. By the time the shortcomings of SLTs were solved they moved to mirrorless cameras. Now they’re taking mirrorless to full frame and everything starts all over again.
What about the people who invested into those first generation products? There’s suddenly no accessories available anymore. No firmware updates. Lens development has halted. How many are willing to give Sony another try?
It’s not the A7R…it’s the A7$. Once you add in the cost of the adaptors, real pro lenses and accessories your in nose bleed territory.
No Sony cannot hope to wipe out the main 2 makers. DSLR’s are here to stay it doesn’t matter how many party tricks or white rabbits Sony pull out of a hat they have not got the vision to deliver products enthusiasts want.
This camera sets the new standard, and if the sensor proves to be up to speed, it will be the best not for sports camera on the market. I tried one at the NY show and it fits the hand well and is a joy to use. Another advantage is that it will accommodate almost any lens ever made.
What is the big deal about Sony flashes (in previous posts), if they overheat, just get a Metz or something. If the pre-flash is a problem, many flashes will work just fine in aperture set mode using no pre-flash. My Canon cameras never gave me good TTL, so I have used all of them with in aperture set (no pre flash) flash mode (flash’s sensor does the work).
This camera is the new game changer ! (wish the vertical grip took AA batteries though). Mirror-less is the future, and shutter free is the next future.
I think A7/r has more lenses than EOS-M, LOL
I want two compact lenses without the blue logo: 35-70 f/3.5 OSS macro and 90 f/4 OSS macro.
Great sensors in the hands of shitty photographers with a range of 3 lenses to choose from, costing more then the camera body after the first price drop. Nah i will continue to shoot my D90 and join the FF club when the party is over and the second hand market is filled with cheap D600 / D800 ditched by “enthusiasts” who cant survive without Zeiss lenses and 50+ megapickles because they print A2 size on a daily basis.
Sony as a company just isn’t built to lead the market – but it’s doing a great job of “managing from behind” – I can see them with a 12-18% market share.
I honestly want, more than anything, to have a reason to move to Sony entirely. Then I look at my Canon lens collection and try to do the math every way possible – and it never works.
For example, why would I pay $3k for a 70-200mm lens that realistically is a retread of a tired lens design and Canon has multiple equivalents with top top tier image quality and support?
At nearly every focal length, the Sony offering fails to provide either the value or quality I want.
Agree, their biggest weakness has always been the lens lineup. like I said, us canikon shooters will never buy into a sony system, simply because it’s not there. We will have to wait years, knowing Sony by then probably have abandonded the e-mount and released something new already. For now the A7 is just a nice backup body when we don’t want/need to lug around our DSLRs. I would love to get one. But if we have to believe Andrea, we’ll see an update of the A7 within a year already. With such a short lifecycle, we don’t have to count on support/firmware updates. Sony just expects you to BUY the update.
If Sony want to make a big change in the market,
they have to make a REAL professional camera, which make all the professional photographer to talk about, just like the D4 or 1Dx.
They have to make the AF-tracking more reliable, better high ISO ability and remove the slideshow effect of the EVF during shooting at high frame rate.
I think EVF & SLT is a great idea, however there are pro & con.
Sony has to find a way to diminish the side effects and strengthen their advantage.
In theory you are right…
But at least german professionals are very conservative – so even if a Sony camera is a real revolution 90% of them would stick to their D3s or 5DMkII because they are not willing to learn a new technology again after just having learned to use digital photography.
Only possibility for Sony in my mind would be to go to photography students and offer them Sony cameras with some rebate and incentives so that in long term next generation of professional photographers know Sony…
If the design of the A7/A7r and lack of fast primes is any indication, I doubt it. Once Sony designs a high quality system with a full set of high-quality lenses and flashes, perhaps that would be a valid question. To date, they haven’t designed even one mature system. As much as I applaud them for being innovative, they haven’t shown any indication that they can compete or threaten the existence of the two giants, even as much as those two have been sleeping lately. Stop being so dramatic.
All these overly excited, blurry-eyed comments remind me of a guy that has sex for the first time and becomes so elated that he thinks he wants to marry the girl right after. Give it some time…Lets see if the cameras even perform well or not.
Oh really! But I have seen a lot of big guys disappear just because they think they are giant and can easily kick someone out from the market. Technology is changing fast. No matter how big you are, if you are slow, you will be simply kicked out from the market, not by any competitor, but by the customers.
There is no new technology that will kick anyone out of a market that demands old technology be respected.
FIX THE FREAKING FLASH SYSTEM SONY…
…or die.
Ridiculous.
Sure, that is why I switched from Canon to Fuji. Canon has been sleeping for a while now, and who knows if they will wake up anytime soon. Also, I was fed up with their give-the-bare-minimum approach to everything below the 5D MKIII. Irrespective of that, I don’t see Sony as the best choice yet. Who knows what the future will bring, but I will believe it when I see it. If they design some reasonably priced, high-quality, lenses for the system, which are balanced in size with the camera bodies, they will definitely be on the right track. Until then, I doubt it…
Sony needs to put some affordable and reasonable priced glass from the important and critical focal lengths not everyone is gonna burn 1K into a Zeiss glass bring out some G lenses 35, 50, 85 focal lengths between 200-800 dollars. There’s a reason why Canon and Nikon are still 1,2 is because of reasonable priced glass.
problem of sony : really lack of lens list (although common model are there)
lack of UHS support in many model , as sony are not using CF card , SD card without UHS support are really slow to feed those big pictures. if u were a canon 5D3 user , u will know what different between 90MB/s CF card and a SD card slot without UHS support , totally different on writing time.
problem of canon : like a toothpaste , hidding function until anyone challenged them ,corp mode in full frame are never appear . 7D have dual ISO mode in ML firmware and they still willing hiding it. CANON dont brother entry level user , that easy WB setting are absent. OLD 9 point cross or non cross AF are never upgrade. also i am waiting canon to launch a pixel monster like D800 or A7R , which have 36MP+ cmos which working damn fine in low ISO (of coz high ISO was not that good)
Challenge Canon/Nikon at what? Lens selection? No. Professional support? No. Flash system? No. Video IQ? No. Sports shooting? No.
Everyone is not Pro.
Everyone don’t need All Lens.(3 or 4 lens with great quality and Carl Zeiss greater than L lens)
Everyone don’t need flash system.
Everyone don’t need Video.(in Pro video production Sony greater than Canon/Nikon)
Everyone don’t need sport shooting.
Pro photographer = 0.01% of photographer and 0.0000000001% of all people in the world
or less.
“Carl Zeiss greater than L lens”
Do you mean “Sony/Japan lens with Carl Zeiss badge” or “Cosina Carl Zeiss”?
Both of these are totally different!
I don’t think the A7 or A7r will be able to challenge Canon and Nikon in any way. I am not a pro, but the A850 AF tracking is even worse than Canon 5D MK I. It can’t track my kids running in the park. I switched to Sony because I like the color rendition and now I am a bit regret. They drop the translucent mirror but completely rely on the on sensor phase detection, I highly doubt if AF tracking will be any better than my A850. The A7/A7r will be good for landscape or still photography (only).
IMO, Sony is still far from challenging C/N.. coz its lens lineup, accessories, customer service, marketing and professional user base are still weak… C/N won’t stand still and let their market share shrinks, the big two must have started new development to conquer Sony/Panasonic/etc..
to Sony, the war to Goliath just begins..
I’m not sure about other areas. But in terms of service centers and customer service policy, Sony has A LOT of homework to do.
OK. Let’s pixel peeping starts!
With so many on this forum decrying Sony’s technological superiority, forward thinking and trailblazing; These same types can’t wait to install old manual lenses that flare like the sun and only fit with hokey adapters.
No, not even close.
And I am a big fan of Sony.
This. Canon especially is a powerhouse and very able to pull innovation out of nowhere. They did it with the EF line, they did it again with the EOS 300D (first consumer DSLR) and with the EOS 5D MK I (first affordable FF), then with the MKII (first true VDSLR). I think they must be working on something.
Yes, only lets hope it will be better then the boring EOS-M. I think lately Canon did nothing to show real innovation… All their cameras are kind of boring, nothing realy new. The only new thing is the dual pixel PDAF, but they put it in the boring 70D. Why not in a new mirrorless?
Canon once was the leader, but is now getting behind Sony. There sensors are mostly old and not as great as Sonys, their cameras are large and show nothing rely exiting.
Challenge Nikon & Canon? Yeah, just like V2000 challenged VHS. Superior product, but not a big player and not enough “content” (in the case of Sony: lensen, flashes etc) to pursuade the consumer to buy into this new system.
I mean, I love Sony, always bought Sony products and will keep buying their products, but A7/A7r in all its glory will remain a niche and never ever really frighten Nikon or Canon.
Canon and Nikon will release their own brand of mirrorless FF cameras in one or two years time and quickly the market will return to almost the same situation it is now with Canon and Nikon leading the pack and Sony playing the role it does now.
I do not believe many people are brand hoppers and go from Canon to Nikon or Sony to Canon etc. Most stick to what they know and where they feel comfortable with. The market in the long end will not change much, if at all.
It is funny how quick people forget! A few years ago people said dxactly the same about mirrorless. It was a craze, when Canon and Nikon came with their mirrorless cameras they would be the leaders again…. But something different happend. Canon and Nikon are the smaller players on the market of mirrorless, Canon Eos-M is a dinancial dissaster.
So you realy think Canon and Nikon are capable of taking Sony if they come with their mirrorless cameras? And yes I say IF, both are not realy successfull with their mirrorless, so why would they try again?
Canon became the smaller player with the EOS-M because it was not a very good camera. Not compared to the other cameras Canon had and certainly not compared to the other mirrorless ones. Some of the problems have improved with firmware updates, but that was too little too late and a lot of problems remained.
If Canon (and Nikon) keep releasing these not so well thought out mirrorless cameras then you are right. However, I think Canon learned its lesson and will not rush out a competitor to the A7/A7r the same way as they did to compete with (among others) the NEX line-up.
When Canon and Nikon manage to release a camera that (unlike the EOS-M vs NEX) has the same focus speed, battery life, etc. as the A7/A7r they will have nothing to fear. More so if they make all present lenses available or even use the same mount again instead of the EOS-M one.
Canon and Nikon are not big players in the mirrorless market because the do no want to be … yet. They own the camera market right now with DSLRs. Current owners have collections of lenses and the uniformed masses buying new interchangeable-lens systems know what a DSLR is and they know who Canon and Nikon are. Mirrorless? Not so much. As such, they brought out complementary mirrorless systems, rather than products that would directly compete with DSLRs. If and when they decide that the market has truly shifted and DSLR’s days are numbered, they’ll come out real mirrorless cameras that will sell just fine based on the name on the front.
I think that Sony can take more market only if it offer the best dslr camera with no compromises at all. Can sony do it? I think they can. They can make a dslr, and i mean real dslr with miror, put inside the best sensor they can produce lets say 50mp, and not to sell it to Nikon first but to put it first in Sony camera. And the price can be high its not a problem for profesionals that already invest in for example 5d3 or cinema canon line.
The decline in sales has to do with camera phones becoming a more convenient option while improving image quality. Sony and all the other brands can be as innovative as they want but a $2K mirrorless camera or even one at half that price puts it in the same boat with DSLR’s. The enthusiasts and pros will continue to buy the more expensive tools but the every day person wanting a camera isn’t going to spend that kind of money. The innovation needs to be in the sub-$500 market. Specifically with Sony the RX and A7 series isn’t addressing the problem. They are simply in a different market.
Never understood why people are so concerned about having a massive Lens lineup to rival the big 2. I agree that the native E mount, particularly Full Frame, lineup is more than a bit lacking but most of the pros I know (admittedly mainly fashion/portrait/events/gigs/weddings rather than sports etc) just use a couple of fast primes and a constant aperture zoom 99% of the time.
As for a flash system, most of them use manual strobes most of the time, although I do know a couple of people who jumped ship from Canon to Nikon as apparently the flash system is better?
I’ve got to admit, I use my manual cheapo Yungnuos a lot more than my F42s nowadays – it’s just a better flash..
The true measure of lenses available fot sony includes all lenses that can be used on sony….not just sony labeled products.
The more universal ( fully compatable ) the sony camera the bigger the lens selection.
Sony will never gain in the matket by making lots and lots of lenses….
The can gain by making the noticeably best cameras..and making them asuniversal as possible.
No one will buy a sony lens unless they buy a sony camera to put them on.
I’m a working pro (portfolio: http://molnarcs.500px.com website: http:/z7photo.com) and I got to admit, I regard Sony as more innovative than Canon and Nikon put together. Unfortunately, however, SONY’s offer is less than tempting. Yeah, I don’t use gazillion lenses, but what I need SONY doesn’t have, and won’t have for the while.
My workhorse events/travel lens is the Nikkor 24-120mm F/4 – despite some negative reviews (mostly from sites using synthetic tests with questionably focused test charts) it’s a superb lens. It’s sharp across the focal range even on the d800, though not as sharp as prime lenses. But it has one thing that others lack – a distinct “personality.” Not sure it’s the nano coating or something else, but colour rendition and micro-contrast on this lens is just amazing. Same goes for the 16-35mm lens, except that it’s tack sharp in the centre (and that centre covers a large area) with beautiful sunstars, superb flare handling and fast focusing speed.
When is SONY going to release the equivalents for the A7r? Not in the foreseeable (1-2 years) future. And the 50mm F/1.8 G and 85mm F/1.8 G primes complete my setup. Both are excellent lenses. The 50mm is super fast to boot, just what I need for low light events. Both are very sharp with pleasant bokeh (no onion rings, clean specular highlights, though oval shaped towards the edges of the frame, and I can live with that). The 85mm F/1.8 G equivalent is non-existent, and the new Zeiss is $1000 vs the $220 I spent on the Nikkor. Overall, the SONY is the more expensive system if you consider lenses.
And as I mentioned in another post, the weight advantage of the SONY body quickly evaporates when you consider the weight of the overall system. FE lenses aren’t going to be lighter than DSLR lenses. The 28-70mm F/3.5-5.6 lens is only 40 grams lighter than the cheap 24-85mm F/3.4-4.5 Nikkor. And the latter is considerably wider (4mm is a lot on the wide end), 15mm longer, and 1 stop brighter on the long end!
I don’t think many Nikon users have a deep commitment to Nikon. I don’t think the fanboys you see on many forums are representative… QC issues, despicable customer care and zero after sales support (in terms of added features in firmware upgrades) does make many of us yearn for a viable alternative, but at the moment (and at least for the next few years) SONY isn’t one. Not for events, not for architecture/events, and I’m not sure about portraiture either. The biggest issue is lens availability, but there are others. Price issue – Sony IS the more expensive system when you consider lenses. Feature parity issues with the d800 – 4fps with autofocus vs 1.5, 900 shots vs 340, double card slots, commander mode for built in flash, fast and reliable focusing even in very dim or tricky lighting condition…
So no, SONY just doesn’t have the pieces of the puzzle to make a significant dent in Nikon’s high-end DSLR sales.
By the only fact that in the question there are concerns about how you look compared to two other maior trademarks (nikon and canon) clearly the answer is :
No!, Sony Gained not the right momentum to challenge Nikon and Canon.
When the well-deserved and true success will come there is no need to worry about competition in this way; In-fact Sony is shadowed (in camera market) by an inferiority complex poorly repressed.
I think it will take a very long time for Sony to get up at the top, but if they do there biggest competitor in every tech sector Samsung will be nipping at there heels.
Eventually cell phones and the used lens market will kill off all of these companies. Thats why I predict a future line-up of completely new revolutionized lenses. That means lenses to work with cameras that auto focus 10 times faster than what we have now. Lens technology is far behind because of how the base of consumers supports manufacturers. Maybe not in image quality, but in other terms of performance I think they lack.
No, not yet anyway. I’m a Nikon shooter, and this is what SONY has to do to win me over.
Good customer an after-sales support. Seeing how Nikon’s after-sales support is basically zero (they never add features in firmware upgrades) this is an easy win for SONY. Unfortunately, it’s the only one.
I work in a variety of fields, and lens support is just not there for any of them. Let’s take events. I carry a small pack – I like mobility. So I have a Lowepro Inverse AW 200 bag that fits in everything I need. D800, 24-120mm F/4 lens, 50 or 85mm f/1.8 lens, sb 700 or sb 910 flash, spare batteries for flash, 1 spare battery for camera. Sony doesn’t have a native constant aperture 5x zoom lens, and I don’t see it coming in the next 2 years. The 50mm F/1.8 G is small and cheap, and pretty damn good for the price. And no, the 24-70 F/4 won’t cut it, for over 70% of my shots are above 70mm! Doing what I had here is simply impossible with the Sony A7r: http://molnarcs.500px.com/events
And that’s just me, a lot of event photographers carry the 24-70 and 70-200 with them. That’s a lot of weight. The 70-200 alone is 1.5 kilos! So the smaller/thinner body advantage quickly evaporates when you consider the overall weight of your system. SONY lenses ain’t gonna be any lighter than current DSLR lenses. Case in point, the SONY 28-70 F/3.5-5.6 that comes in at 425 grams. That’s just 40 grams lighter than the Nikkor 24-85 F/3.5-4.5 lens, which is considerably wider (4mm is a lot on the wide end), it’s longer, and it’s a stop brighter at the long end!
So the only advantage of SONY right now is that it’s 3-400 grams lighter, which doesn’t matter if you carry 2-3 kilos or more. Everything else is a loss. D800: faster focusing with pretty good subject tracking even in dark, 4fps with autofocus vs 1.5, double card slots, commander mode for built-in flash, battery life 900 shots vs 340 and of course, lens availability which isn’t going to change much, even with the 15 lenses SONY is planning. Especially not at the price point of those lenses.
What would make me switch in terms of technology then? Native 24-105/120 f/4 zoom, 50mm F/1.8, 85mm f/1.8, 16-35mm f/4 (this is my current lens line-up, the latter I use for interiours, architecture, landscapes). Is it going to happen in the next 3 years? Maybe. Is it going to happen at a reasonable price? Now that I doubt very much. The 24-70mm F/4 SONY lens is the same price as the Nikkor 24-120 f/4! And though the Nikkor is not a super sharp lens, it’s still pretty decent even on the d800. And it has nano coating with superb colour reproduction and micro-contrast. It’s a lens with a distinct “personality.” $1000 for the 55mm F/1.8 lens? The Nikkor 50mm f/1.8 G is a very good lens for a fraction of the price ($220 vs $1000) with superb focusing speed (just what I need for low-light events).
Also this:
http://www.newsshooter.com/2013/10/27/photoplus-expo-2013-30-years-on-and-now-sony-is-a-major-player/
R u kidding!? I just tested both, no one has usable follow autofocus. It cannot compare to DSLR or SLT right now, suitable ONLY FOR NOT MOVING OBJECTS SHOOTNIG. Maybe next generation models can, after few years…
I can’t believe people still follow and read Andrew “EOSHD”. This “gentle” man has some serious temper problem. The guy swears and curses at posters and readers for commenting or going against his view. The guy loves Iphone, and brings Apple when bashing Japanese companies. This guy think, not just think but believes and knows better than the Japanese executives. example, http://www.eoshd.com/content/11256/open-letter-japanese-manufacturers-regarding-enthusiast-video-market-improve-lose
Consumer and people need to realize that it takes your money to buy products and keep companies going. But when companies come out with products they whine and cry because it’s expensive but when Apple comes out with a $800 phones they go out and buy in a heart beat and swear by god that the phone camera takes better pictures!
No need to challenge other but improve ourselves is very good enough.
Csaba Molnar, damn you just put a nail in the coffin of my A7 and A7r orders!
I think Nikon is in a very vulnerable position and its executives don’t even understand what’s going on. Reminds me of Nokia 5 years ago. Obviously, there will always be a demand for full frame professional cameras – it’s just that they will be mirrorless and probably made by Sony. Even “pros” will favor the convenience of such cameras. For enthusiasts the innovation is elsewhere (think Sony, Olympus, Panasonic, Fuji). But the camera market will shrink nevertheless. Ordinary people don’t give a damn about image quality. They don’t see beyond their iPhone and heavily compressed low-res photos on Facebook. Camera makers must start selling great cameras to people who care about cameras. But there’s not enough such people to sustain all the existing companies.