During the latest months I received many mails from people asking me to talk a bit about future mirrorless systems from Canon, Nikon and other companies.
I thought it would be good idea to write one single post to share all I know about the future mirrorless sytems.
A personal note:
I admit, I am not a brand loyal person. I like good cameras, not brands š
I love the Pentax K1000Pentax K1000
Pentax K1000
Pentax K1000
Pentax K1000
Pentax K1000
Pentax K1000
Pentax K1000
Pentax K1000
Pentax K1000
Pentax K1000
, the Nikon FE
Nikon FE
Nikon FE
Nikon FE
Nikon FE
Nikon FE
Nikon FE
Nikon FE
Nikon FE
Nikon FE
Nikon FE
system, the Mamiya M7
Mamiya M7
Mamiya M7
Mamiya M7
Mamiya M7
Mamiya M7
Mamiya M7
Mamiya M7
Mamiya M7
Mamiya M7
Mamiya M7
, the Canon 550D (T2i)
And I am very curious to see what’s coming from the competition!
So what should we expect from Panasonic, Olympus, Canon, Nikon, Sony, Samsung and Pentax?
Canon:
First of all I invite you to follow the canonrumors.com website. I am sure they have far better rumors than we about future Canon stuff.
According to our sources Canon will be the last big brand to present their mirorrless system. A mirrorless concept/roadmap could be unveiled on Photokina but my sources do speculate with the official release of their system in 2011. Some speculation: It could use the same APS-C sensor used for the Canon 550D (T2i). Do not expect something revolutionary. They will simply pick-up some of the best tecnology from current mirrorless systems and put their sensor in a new Canon system.
My future interest in the Canon system? 7/10
Nikon:
Our friend Peter from nikonrumors posted many Nikon related “mirrorless” patents. According to his sources Nikon will use a small sensor (smaller than the MicroFourThirds sensor!) for their mirrorless system. Also my sources do confirm that we should not expect too much from Nikon.
My future interest in the Nikon system: 5/10
Pentax:
They have zero resources for developing their own mirrorless system. And the partnership with Samsung is very weak. I really hope Pentax can survive but I don’t see a bright future for them š
No vote (but I would love to see a Pentax mirorless system!)
Samsung:
They are putting a lot of money for the development into the NX system. The problem is that they have no tradition, no experience and people do not really trust them. Anyway they are currently trying to learn from their mistakes and I am sure that over the long term they will be able to release some interesting cameras (like the compact NX100). The partnership with Schneider-Kreuznach sounds also very promising.
One more thing: I bet they will be the first to create a mirrorless fullframe system!
My future interest in the Samsung system: 7/10 (and if they make a fullframe system: 8/10)
Sony:
Unlike Samsung they will soon release some nice compact cameras. The problem is that (as usual) Sony will create a strong closed proprietary system. Also the hotshoe is proprietary š
And I don’t like their relation with the Alpha-folks. An example? They didn’t manage to release one single firmware update for their Sony Alpha cameras
My future interest in the Sony system: 6/10
Panasonic and Olympus:
Yes, here we are! What’s the future of MicroFourThirds? In my opinion everything depends from the development of the lens system. If they will be able to release some nice lenses only few will switch to other mirroless systems. And according to my sources both companies are working very very hard in that direction. I expect many new lenses to be announced at Photokina. Olympus will announce some nice primes and Panasonic is focusing their development of cheap-good quality lenses (like the Panasonic 20mm f/1.7
My future interest in the MFT system: 8/10
Please keep in mind that my judgment is based on rumors+speculations and not on facts.
Once again thanks to all of you sending me rumors and news!
P.S.: Sorry if sometimes I do not answer you. At the moment I am really busy at work. Feel free to add me in google chat. You can contact me at any time!
Cheers
Ale
29 Responses
“The partnership with Schneider-Kreuznach sounds also very promising.”
Partnership?!? I thought I had read that they flat-out own Schneider, although neither company likes to say so…
On Sony, I don’t see them as any more “closed” than Canon or Nikon for example. They all do pretty much their own thing. The hotshoe isn’t a big deal, since if you want full communication you need native fit flashes anyway.
Firmware wise, they have released updates for Alpha cameras, most notable being the A700 one to improve noise performance.
If anything, I feel Sony is the most likely to bring some genuinely fresh technology to the product category rather than “more of the same” we’ll probably get from Canikon. Maybe they can really crack AF performance which I think is the biggest limitation of such a system.
For the record I own an E-P1 with Canon as main system.
Don’t you forget someone? What about Leica?
I understood that the reason that the Sony hotshoe was proprietary was as a result of Minolta wanting to add features to flashguns in 1988 not supported by the “standard” hotshoe designed in 1913. Among these were the ability to sync at 1/8000th second. Additionally, the “standard” hotshoe is not as standard as most people think. From wikipedia:
“It is possible to mount, say, a Canon flash directly on a Nikon body, and trigger it during the exposure. However, the ISO 518 hot-shoe standard does not govern electronic data transfer between the flash and the body (e.g. for charge and exposure status, TTL metering, ratio, focal length, ISO exposure index, distance, pre-flash metering, modeling light, red-eye reduction burst, wireless control). Different camera makers’ dedicated flash systems are, in fact, incompatible in terms of both the proprietary contact layout and the communication protocol.”
This means, in fact that all major camera manufacturers use proprietary flash connections. The fact that the Sony physical connection is different just highlights the fact that you cannot just bung a Nikon flash on a Sony camera. Using a Nikon flash on a Canon camera may or may not work as the user would have hoped. Differing protocols using the same connector type does raise the question as to whether using a brand A flash on a brand B camera could damage the camera and/or flash.
A very nice summary, and pretty much sums up why m43 is a good play right now.
I wouldn’t dismiss Nikon out of hand. I am not a Nikon person, and own no Nikon cameras (and never have), but if their camera is even MORE compact than m43, I wonder if they consumers might not go for it. Just a thought.
Canon is the most formidable, just because of who they are, but every month they wait, the more other systems get intrenched.
I do not like the Sammy NX – I don’t like it’s styling, and I don’t trust them, But, you are right — they could be the first to go FF mirrorless (alternatively, maybe that’s what Canon does, but initially at a premium price?? That would shake up the market, I think)
But for the next year or so, I think m43 will continue to be the leader here. But that still doesn’t give me enough comfort to pay $1,000 for that Lumix 7-14 lens. I’ve got an EP1, kit lens and 45-200 and legacy lenses, that will play on (hopefully) any mirrorless system, but those $1000 m43 lenses. I’m not ready to “invest” in that just yet,
And what about Fuji?
You (very vaguely) suggested once a partnership
with Olympus?
This is why I just switched back to film for the time being. Aside from the fact that I prefer my Pentax LX over any current DSLR (the LX is smaller, yet the view finder is MUCH larger than all of them, even the Canon 1Ds). I’m just not ready to invest into a mirrorless system. I did buy an E-P1 when they first came out because I thought it could possibly be a digital Pentax LX, but lack of built in viewfinder killed that for me, and I sold it. So for now I will wait. If that Schneider lens rumor is true then Samsung is currently #1 for me simply due to the fact that rumor speculated Schneider has every single prime lens I want planned (an area where m4/3’s has seriously dropped the ball). Sony could also be interesting to me if Zeiss gets involved. It would be nice for Zeiss to make a body using the new Sony mount ala the Zeiss Ikon.
Looking at Sony’s new hotshoe, I have a feeling that the compact flash draws power directly from the camera’s rechargable battery.
What about Leica, Kodak and Fujifilm?
You’re right about the lenses. I think Olympus and Panasonic have been idiotic here.
Imagine if they had just branded the lenses Micro Four Thirds and divided the lens map between them…
We would have had far more choice by now. Instead we have TWO 14-42mm, a 14-140 and a 14-150, a 20mm and a 17mm.
They have wasted countless sums of money and time duplicating each other’s work and slowing the development of the system as a whole.
Unimaginative and greedy.
I agree with you on the Mamiya and the K1000 – nice cameras….you should also try an OM4ti.
What is your gut feeling on the development of the original 4/3 SLR mount?? I notice you think Olympus and Panasonic will invest in new lenses etc for micro 4/3. My personal feeling FWIW is that Olympus will very gradually move away from their original E-system with more money being invested in the Micro system.
They have already re-surrected the Pen. Why not OM??? The Micro 4/3 mount and register distance would allow them a digital OM4ti for example. High grade metal body similar in footprint and design to the classic OM with some compact fast primes….14mm f2 (28mm in old money). I think this type of camera would find its way into Pro photographers bags, especially photojournalists
Micro 4/3 does not need to be against anything, Micro 4/3 is a mature system already
Meanwhile other are making consumer micro cameras like Samsung did, Micro 4/3, Olympus and Panasonic Lumix, are working on new and more advanced cameras, maybe Panasonic have already some more advanced cameras around the world being tested and optimized. š
Micro 4/3 Olympus and Panasonic want to make money, but I prefer their philosophy compared to the other brands
I’d like to know how you define “better rumors”. Is a better rumor more fun to read, more likely to be true, less likely to be true.
Hi Spam!
Answer: More likely to be true!
I would bet on the sony system. they have everything they need and the will to build a professional system.
I keep watching m4/3 and can’t decide to buy a camera because of the sensor. lenses are ok, but you can’t compare image quality to nikon or even sony.
I am also waiting for Fuji to come and change my opinion.
other than format m4/3 partners should try to rethink sensor technology to match the whole concept. that is why I think Fuji will be the chosen one.
I don’t agree with “TheVoiceoverman” that the lenses are duplicated. The Olympus and Panasonic lenses are actually very different in my view.
The Olympus 14-42 is collapsible, while the Panasonic 14-45 has OIS.
The Panasonic 14-140 has OIS, exact and near stepless aperture, and fast autofocus. The Olympus 14-150 is a more plain lens.
The Panasonic 20mm is significantly faster than the Olympus 17mm.
And so on.
Samsung
They made not a bad camera but they released just 3 lenses and only one (30mm) is small enough to make the package really portable. At the moment the bigger sensor doesn’t show any stunning result.
Sony
They are working on two very small bodies…but…what about lenses? They are nice, with metal finish but I guess they will be sensibly larger than Olympus/Panasonic ones (but may be nicer!).
Nikon
Smaller sensor? It makes sense, Ricoh demonstrated it !!! For sure I wouldn’t adapt DX/FX lenses on such a small body!
4/3 – Panasonic
They are really well placed: they can achieve compactness and quality at the same time. They are “conquering” the market and competitors are far away. It couldn’t be better!
Ricoh
In my opinion it has the best concept: whatever lens, the camera can be pocketable !!! Unfortunately prices are so high that only few of us can afford them. They really miss a strong partner to split R&D costs and to have proper manufacturing volumes. ( I can see Ricoh in partnership with Nikon/Canon and a really amazing product !!! )
@M43Photo
You may not agree with āTheVoiceoverman” on lens duplication, but surely you can agree that a greater variety could have and should have been produced by now. I only care about sub-f/2.8 primes (at least in normal focal lengths, wide angles can be f/2.8), despite two companies working together and having a massive head start on everyone else they have still only produced exactly one interesting lens (the 20mm/1.7). Samsung has produced the exact same number of interesting glass with their very first lens offerings. So to me they are even, it will be interesting to see where they go from here.
I like your summation. You don’t mention Ricoh GXR. At first I thought the idea nutty, but when rumor surfaced of a Leica M mount module (hopefully FF) I suddenly got it, and now find it very interesting – a Nikon F mount module would have me really salivating.
The MFT sensor performs as well as we can expect for the size, and I bought in early (October 2008). I really don’t thnik APS-C has a big enough real estate premium to now interest me. Over the last few months, while waiting for all these new product developments, I have been having a great time using Leica, Nikon, Canon, Pentax and Minolta lenses on my G1, and despite 50% loss of FOV, some of the combinations work extremely well, and I will continue to use these with MFT cameras (G2 next on my shopping list). However, I’m also very hopefull that someone will build a good FF mirrorless camera with a mount and short flange-back that allows me to use my FF manual focus lens collection …
@Eric: Perhaps m4/3 just isn’t for you (at least for now). I have a guess that Panasonic and Olympus intended m4/3 to be a more mass market-oriented camera (or at least palatable to amateurs and people looking at high-end digicams), and so their main priority is to get out lenses that would appeal more to the mass market, i.e. zoom lenses.
While it would have been nice for Olympus and Panasonic to have collaborated more on lens manufacturing (perhaps splitting profits evenly for all m4/3 lenses sold), I’m not sure how their stockholders would have reacted to that, or maybe they did, albeit negatively.
My needs are much more modest than yours, though, so I’m very happy with how m4/3 is developing, especially now that Panasonic plans to introduce a pro videocam using the m4/3 mount, which means they’d be making serious glass for professional videographers that m4/3 camera users can also use.
Make no mistake, I’d love to see more fast, compact glass in different prime focal lengths as well as f/2.8 or f/4 zooms (I doubt it can be as compact, but here’s hoping it could at least be smaller and lighter than APS-C equivalents). I just don’t see Panasonic and Olympus making them their top priority for now.
I’m looking forward to Panasonic’s 100-300, though. That should help loads in birding photos. š
I wouldn’t underestimate Sony. The two photos of the NEX3 we’ve seen show some interesting features. The flash concept is nice, you could call it detachable flash. It tilts and can also be put down, so it does not occupy much space. It look powerful, but I also think it draws power from the camera battery. Small ( external ) flashes are something that m43 system lacks and this IMO is the one Panasonic and Olympus should copy.
Another thing that could give Sony an advantage are advanced modes that can be, for example, be found in HX5: sweep panorama, HDR mode, handheld twilight, 10fps, … If they put those in the NEX line ( and some higher spec models will SURELY have them ), it could draw people to Sony. The panorama feature itself can replace a wide lens in many occasions, while ( better executed ) handheld twilight can serve instead of a fast lens at night. m43 group should start thinking about beefing up their in camera software. If they put IS in all their lenses, than they could be a serious competitor to m43.
Samsung has so far shown nothing new, while others are too far from product relise
I wouldn’t underestimate Sony. The two photos of the NEX3 we’ve seen show some interesting features. The flash concept is nice, you could call it detachable flash. It tilts and can also be put down, so it does not occupy much space. It look powerful, but I also think it draws power from the camera battery. Small ( external ) flashes are something that m43 system lacks and this IMO is the one Panasonic and Olympus should copy.
Another thing that could give Sony an advantage are advanced modes that can be, for example, be found in HX5: sweep panorama, HDR mode, handheld twilight, 10fps, … If they put those in the NEX line ( and some higher spec models will SURELY have them ), it could draw people to Sony. The panorama feature itself can replace a wide lens in many occasions, while ( better executed ) handheld twilight can serve instead of a fast lens at night. m43 group should start thinking about beefing up their in camera software. If Sony puts IS in all their lenses, than they could be a serious competitor to m43.
Samsung has so far shown nothing new, while others are too far from product release to even comment. I would like to see Fuji and Pentax mirrorless cameras though.
GH1 and G2 still have no competitors on mirrorless battle field.
The first for image quality, video and pro feeling, the second for design, ease of use (touchscreen) and IQ.
@ kesztiĆ³
Maybe no competitor in the mirrorless field.. but who cares if you can buy a canon 550d, which beats the gh1 hands down for half the price : P
Agreed – the GH1 and the GH2 are large cameras. Really I don’t care if cameras are mirrorless or not, I want something that’s easily portable. By the time you get to a camera that you have to carry in a camera bag or on a strap, you might as well use a DSLR.
That why I find the Nikon the most interesting of these potential EVILs. Of course the ultimate would be a tiny camera with a full-frame sensor, a digital Olympus Stylus Epic if you will, but micro 43rds cameras can’t fit in a pocket and I wonder if shrinking the sensor a little further is the only away to get something that will.
Here is an article by Thom Hogan, Mirrorless will be like Netbook: http://www.bythom.com/. Very interesting.
@lius. But Thom Hogan is wrong in this comparison. Netbooks are just dummied down lap-tops. Getting rid of the big clumsy mirror box and prism is revolutionary new technology. If we can do a better job electronically, why on earth do we want to perpetutate an obsolete mechanical system? Next are very fast and very low power “global” electronic shutters, which will eliminate shutter lag problems on bigger sensors (entire array switched, as opposed to a row at a time). If you already are heavily invested in dSLR, then keep it going, but fully electronic professional cameras are the future – and they will perform better than dSLR in the long run.
@Luis Gomez. Thom is wrong in comparing the two.
Main reasons for netbook sales going down is the small screen ( judging by numerous friends’ comments ) and a very slow pace of innovation. The basic configuration has barely changed since the introduction of the Atom processor. Inside there’s still 1.6 GHz, 1 GB RAM, bad integrated graphic card, while the hard drives have gone from 160 to 250 GB max. Is 90 GB of HDD space all that could be put in there in two years ??? Connectivity is also lousy: only selected models have 3G card slot, HDMI, GPS etc. And even fewer have touch screens. The truth is that the first Atom-based netbooks were too powerful for that time and the price, so they are being deliberately held from improving in order not to harm laptop sales and also by some Microsoft restrictions.
There is much healthier competition in the digital camera market and mirrorless is the natural step in large sensor camera evolution. They will eventually catch up with DSLR performance. For current DSLR owners, who have invested much in their gear, they are bad news, because the pace of development of DSLRs is going to be slower and slower, but that has always happened in technology and will continue to happen.
Well, I have been having a lot of fun and use with the GF1 and the 20mm f1/.7 which can easily go with me everywhere since it so compact vs a Canon 1D series, which is my ‘serious’ camera. I keep pondering if I should sell the Canons but lenses like the 100mm 2.8 macro L IS have no match at the moment.
On the other hand, I shoot a fair amount of video with the GH1 and almost exclusively with alt glass such as a Zuiko 50mm f1.4, and Canon 135mm f 2.5, since I work mostly in dim light.
So in a sense I am going backwards in time and using manual focus/exposure lenses from the film era since I can get a large aperture for 1/10 the price of a Canon L or a ‘real’ video lens on a ‘real’ video camera.
I’m probably .01% of the M4/3 market, so my use may not count at all in guiding manufacturers. But my point is that if you want a huge array of really good lenses at your fingertips (today) use the adapters and go crazy with old film lenses.
Bruce