The detailed Cipa report has been published and there are some interesting news:
– Japanese companies produced 44% less cameras (50% less compact cameras and 24% less DSLR and Mirrorless).- The only segment with growth was the High End Camera and Lens market. For example +14,1% Full Frame Lenses have been produced.
This is clearly a sign that 1) the compact camera market is dying 2) The pro market is the only market still generating sales and money. For Panasonic and Olympus this means that they have to think on competing with Nikon and Canon in the high end market. But the MFT sensor size may be the major limitation. A larger Full Frame mirrorless system may be required to go into that direction!
P.S.: Current Amazon mirrorless rankings:
US ranking (Click here).
DE ranking (Click here).
UK ranking (Click here).
FR ranking (Click here).
132 Responses
“The pro market is the only market still generating sales and money.”
Really? No sales and money outside of pro?
“For Panasonic and Olympus this means that they have to think on competing with Nikon and Canon in the high end market.”
I hear hybrid car and protein shakes are doing well. So, about time Panasonic and Olympus entered those markets too…?
@Chez Wimpy
I think he means there is no margin in the bottom end, the margin is further up the market…
I am not sure we are reading the same report.
OLYMPUS MIRRORLESS SALES were up 15% for the year and up 25% in q4 of 2012 see page 34
How is that even close to relevant to the comments you are replying to?
Olympus, Panasonic and Sony correctly chased and got the camera joshi market while it was there.Oly and Panny are already repositioning themselves up the market.The professional market will reposition itself down to meet micro four thirds due to the lack of demand from clients and the photographers for full frame along with other pressures.Sony have been too quiet this year and will have to come back with a major bang in 2014.
Can’t work out whether Fuji are doing well but they are correctly positioned and I think will be steady away.
Nikon 1 has failed in every respect and in doing so have done Oly and Panny a huge favour likewise the Canon M.
Its actually the failure of the Nikon 1 and Canon M and the quietness of Sony are skewing 2013.
nikon 1 has failed so hard it is on top of that list…
hard as snails is thick as shit he has major problems with ,Nikon, Reality and especially anything involving numbers. The super hyped E-M5 couldn’t even make it into the top 10 with its 3% share. As usual the top selling mFT are those at give away prices. The talk is that the Japanese are going to give a free E-PM1 with every packet of corn flakes.As for Panasonic the GH3 has never appeared in the top eighty selling weekly camera chart from BCN Japan.
Seriously follow the BCN sales charts for a few weeks look at what is selling and critically look at the prices, bearing in mind that this is the single best market in the world for mirrorless cameras.Unless you are retarded like hard as snails there is no good way to look at it, mFT has a smaller share of the mirrorless market and mirroless has a smaller share of the overall market these are the facts that matter , along with the losses of Olympus and Panasonic
http://dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=jranking
@lol
dearest @lol I scored 144 out of 144 in a maths IQ test so numbers is hardly a problem for me, as for reality I live in a more real world than you could ever…Nope Nikon and their tribe are not a problem, they are being most helpful to Micro Four Thirds 🙂
You scored high in math?
Sorry, it doesn’t look like. The chart is there to be read for everybody.
Nikon J1 scored very high, in fact much higher than the second camera on the list. The reason is the strong discounts on the camera, yes, but this is also the reason why many Olympus cameras are there. Strong discounts = strong sales but also = no profit. Olympus is in trouble: did you get it?
@lorenzaccio
Yeah I get the Nikon 1 system has been a total fail, launch price was 300% too expensive and 3 years too late for it’s target market and an expensive marketing campaign and strong branding couldn’t save it.
Did it meet Nikon’s internal expectations… NO IT FAILED.
Go ask Nikon how the J3,J2,V2 and S1 are doing…
Nikon 1 has been a fail so far, yes.
So what? the J1 is on top of that list. Does it tell you anything?
First and foremost: that list shows the cameras that were bought the most, usually thanks to strong firesales. This is also the case of m43 cameras, unfortunately. It is not important how many cameras they sell, but how much profit the company earns from each camera, and in general from the total of sales.
Now: the mirrorless market is SHRINKING (ahi ahi!), while still being too small in the world market (Japan is an exception, of course). Yen is declining (ahi ahi!). And what is Oly doing? Raising prices.
I am a fan of Oly, but I think they are playing with fire here…
Those tests must be designed for kindergarteners as you have never made even one accurate statement that uses numbers/data
If you are just looking at which vendor had the largest % of mirrorless sales then Nikon rules the roost. The MFT system as a whole on the other hand owns more than 50% of the mirrorless market vs the 8% of the Nikon 1 system.
I’ve actually got a soft spot for the 1 system, anyone that has *actually tried one* will agree it is quite a fun little camera with passable IQ. Just a shame it is a proprietary mount.
In The USA, A consumer can walk into most stores and actually hold the J1, the camera that you think is a turd.Other companies really do need to think about this. Is joe shmo really going to order a camera from B&H without testing how it feels. No Joe Smoe goes to Target and looks in a glass case at the cameras on display and chooses from what’s in front of him. After all, how a camera feels is pretty important. These aren’t shoes you can order from Zappos and return easily. These are expensive cameras. When’s the last time you bought a car without sitting in it and testing it out.
This is true in the US, not in Japan, where you can try all cameras for hours, if you want. The point being: m43 sales are good, but only when the cameras get strongly discounted. With Olympus raising prices (with e-p5, e-pl6 and probably the new omd as well) I really feel they got it completely wrong…
@lorenzaccio
Olympus has reported that their mirrorless sales were up 15% last year and 25% for the last quarter of 2012.
If you want to speak about getting it wrong in the mirrorless
world speak about Canon, Ricoh, Nikon, Samsung and Pentax…
Olympus increased sale ONLY because they were giving m43 cameras away.
They didn’t make any profit, and that’s what counts here.
Well, actually, it does not count much, unless you hope they will keep on producing new lenses and accessories.
I am VERY curious to see how many new ep5, epl6 and future cameras they will sell at the current price. My guestimate: very few, and they will have to firesale cameras again…
Olympus also reported yet another (was it increase?) camera division loss.
The compact market is shrinking because of competition with cameraphones… and FF is a growing market.
However, I don’t quite agree with the comment of the Four Thirds sensor being limited, as if you look at the top 20 mirrorless sales, 11 are MFT cameras.
@Anonymous
Full frame isn’t growing because of demand, the low growth
that it is showing is because that is what is being churned out…
MFT actually owns ~51% of the mirrorless market, the rest is balkanised. We should all be glad to know that the system has critical mass and we made a good choice 🙂
The 135 format Olympus CSC system would be a killer but I’m afraid it won’t happen any time soon. Back in the days, the OM SLRs were professional and compact at the same time. With current mirror-less technology they could go any further, though ;).
i don’t know if I see the same gloom in those larger CIPA stats when you factor in ..
Top 20 Mirrorless Sales Share by mFT
Olympus combined 28.8%
Panasonic combined 21.4%
————————–
mft combined 50.2%
Basically mFT is mirrorless by majority. High End [aka SLR] is not the only profit area, CAMERAS WITH Interchangeable lenses seems to be doing better than SLR overall?
“Basically mFT is mirrorless by majority.” We know that mFT cameras are mirrorless. What’s your point? And if you meant that “mirrorless is mFT by majority”, 50.2% is hardly a sizeable majority.
And what is this nonsense about comparing SLR to cameras with interchangeable lenses without acknowledging that the majority of SLRs ARE cameras with interchangeable lenses?
if you read the CIPA report, it’s their breakdown, geez chill out
@stickytape
That’s share of current sales.
The share of Mft amongst mirrorless consumers will be much higher (and the potential for lens sales and upgrades)with mft’s 2-3 year head start……
If you look at the top 20 MIRRORLESS sales, and look at the % then mFT takes 50.2% of those sales. Sony, Nikon, Pentax, aren’t close. Sony at 18.4% doesn’t beat out either Panasonic or Olympus even on their own. How you can not see that, I guess maths isn’t your strong subject? And 50% of the mirrorless market in Sales … I guess business isn’t your strong subject either. As to a 50.2% majority. I guess you little about majority rule, or shared party cooperation.
You do seem to be good at emotional outburst, good luck with your success on that. If you “read” the CIPA reports, (I did before blurting) SLRs is one group, INTERCHANGEABLE LENS Cameras is another, [they didn’t use mirrorless for their data stats …
Hei, guys, you realized that here we are talking about the JAPANESE MARKET only? It’s the market where 1) most mirrorless cameras are sold (not so in Western countries), 2) Oly and Pana have an advantage over competition (NOT SO in Western countries). It is also the market where Oly and Pana discount more their products. In few words: even if (even if!!!) these numbers were valid for the entire world (and they are not!!!) sales do not mean profit. On the contrary: Olympus and Panasonic pushed their sales by lowering profit margins, sometimes to zero. This was the case e.g. with the e-pl1s model, sold only in Japan and soon discounted to 20.000 yen. Until some time ago everybody willing to “upgrade” from compact cameras was buying the e-pl1s. Guess what, Olympus almost didn’t make any profit from that model…
Its actually is a sizeable majority – go and find the nearest competitor and you’ll find that the ~51% stake is far ahead of any competition. Outside of the large stake held my MFT you have a balkanised set of mounts from Nikon, Canon, Sony, etc. – each with a far less significant share of the market.
If I am not mistaken, the numbers you are talking about are the MFT market share in japan. I believe Sony is leading in worldwide market share at this point.
Let’s be clear, you’re talking about sales in the Japan, which represents about 8% of the world market. It’s also one of the top markets in which mirrorless sell. Note also that there are a lot of last-generation cameras on that “sold at retail in half the stores in Japan” list. Many of those showed up as sales on the corporate financials in a previous year.
As I’ve reported, it’s clear that mirrorless shipments are down the first quarter of this year. Not just sales are down, but the camera companies are clearly adjusting downwards. Last year, the companies shipped 3.9m mirrorless cameras. This year they’re on target to ship only 3.2m units.
Let’s pretend for a moment that m4/3’s 50% market share in Japan holds up worldwide (it doesn’t according to Sony). That’s 1.6m units split between two companies. Let’s say 900,000 cameras at Oly, 700,000 at Panasonic. Look closely at the costs in those camera divisions. Olympus just booked a US$230m loss in their camera division. The dropping of compact cameras actually is putting more cost pressure on m4/3, not less, as it’s having to bear even more of the division SG&A expenses.
DSLRs, which are dominated by Canon and Nikon, are on track to sell 12.4m units this year. Nikon is the smaller one at 30% market share, but that still means 3.7m cameras over which to spread their division costs. Financial analysts tend to look at revenue per employee. The last calculation I have for that showed Nikon 2x better than Olympus in that respect.
It’s not all doom and gloom. Can you make a profit on less than a million units sold? Sure. The problem is that Olympus hasn’t make a profit in cameras for a number of years running now, has been in a constant “downsize” situation that’s bringing up write downs and additional costs, and has yet to show that they can get ahead of that problem in any meaningful way.
Consider this: Olympus just published their four year plan: no gain in revenues in cameras. Exactly zero gain. The same level of sales every year for four years, regardless of what the market may be doing. And slowly improving cost fundamentals so that by year four they show a <2% profit margin. Seems much more wishful thinking than based in any reality we've seen so far.
As a m4/3 user myself, I worry a bit about what Olympus (and especially Panasonic) may give up in order to constrain their losses in cameras. Success in market share in one market does not make for a guaranteed future. Remember, as the yen drops against the dollar and Euro, pricing in the home market stays the same but pricing on things in other markets should go down. Not having market share in those markets is a bigger problem than it was because of the declining yen.
Ah, just saw your article “The Financial Season Ends”. It would be great to have a speculation piece on where the industry is heading in the next 2-3 years.
@Thom Hogan
not sure why you didn’t link to Olympus financial report in your article so people could make up their own mind and get a fuller picture. Anyways here it is http://www.olympus-global.com/en/common/pdf/brief145PBe_5.pdf
In the United Kingdom Panasonic Lumix is by far the dominant Mirrorless player, then come Olympus and then Sony.I’ve not seen a EOS M, 1,Q or NX in the hands of a consumer or a picture of a consumer yet…
You really are a master of off-topic comments.
Not sure why you didn’t mention you have a history of trolling Thom Hogan when he makes posts.
Hogan tried hard to downplay E-P5. What a pity!
Downplay a ridiculously overpriced toy camera that’s outrageous
I appreciate that this is not a worthwhile question to you but would you happen to have any sales numbers that actually support your hypothesis.
Thom, Olympus is raising prices on all new cameras. I guess this is their primary answer to the declining yen. Ep5 costs a lot (as you pointed out in a couple of articles), and the epl6 costs a lot as well (in Japan 16.000 yen MORE than the epl5 B.O., enough said). Future OMD will cost more, probably.
I have no idea of how this strategy will pay back. I guess not much, but at least they are leaving room for strong discounts with some profit remaining per camera sold…
This is indeed one of Olympus’ problems. Since they are more heavily dependent upon sales IN the Japanese market, the declining yen actually means that in-market sales costs probably have to go up. Power costs are up, supply costs are up, all in-country costs are slowly starting to inflate.
Outside Japan, a declining yen means that you get more yen per sale if you keep the price constant. But Olympus (and Panasonic, especially corporate wide) is more balanced towards the home market than the world market than many of the other camera makers, thus don’t get the same bang for the buck as it appreciates against the yen.
Personally, I’m doubtful that mirrorless can make any price increases stick. Canon and Nikon will use pricing on DSLRs to keep DSLR sales up, and as Canon just showed, they very well may make smaller DSLRs while doing so.
Fact is that at the moment this yen depreciation is apparently hitting Olympus prices only.
According to the price aggregator Kakaku, the e-pl6 plus kit lens (71.000 yen circa) will cost 5000 yen more than the Nikon 5200 plus kit lens, only 3000 less than the Sony alpha 6 plus 12-60 lens (hence much more than all possible alpha 5r line kits), and 7000 yen more than the Fuji XE-1 body (and with 92.000 yen circa, only 20.000 more, you get the camera kit with the excellent Fuji 18-55 2.8/4 lens).
Priced this way, the epl6 cannot possibly compete on the Japanese market, unlike the epl5 (the kit is currently priced at 48.000 yen circa, = 23.000 less than the epl6 kit). Maybe they want to discount the epl5 even more?
Otherwise there is no way Olympus is going to sell as many cameras as before, in Japan…
The historic trends emerging from the data (PDF files) is very interesting. It seems that the world wide acceleration in interchangeable lens camera sales has been slowing down since 2007. Markets in emerging economies are slowly adopting those cameras, but the growth rate there is not enough to compensate for the slowdown in western markets.
Interestingly, lens sales (or should I say shipments) have been accelerating in the past 3-4 years. Prime lenses have been accelerating faster than zooms, indicating a change in shooting habits (brought about by the smartphone culture?)
Overall, I think that the camera market is maturing and approaching stability. There is still profit to be made by manufacturers, but this will be more due to lenses than due to cameras. If manufacturers respond rationally to those processes product life cycles are expected to grow longer while optics will get more attention. This is exactly what happened in the SLR market in the mid 70’s.
@sneye
hmmm I wondering which camera companies/mount could be benefiting from those accelerating prime lens sales 😉
Look at the financials of Olympus and Panasonic and you can very quickly see who is not benefiting from lens sales!Canon and especially Nikon have been updating their prime lenses in the last couple of years , the sales of the 85mm etc have been excellent.
@Anonymous
where do see a breakdown of profit for lens sales by mount or manufacturer????
@ hard as snails you are the one suggesting that mFT is the one benefiting from it lol like most of your “data” it is plucked straight from your ass.Here in the USA mFT is less than 10% of sales the top selling mirrorless camera can hardly make it into the top 100 selling cameras the only mFT camera in the top 100 selling digital cameras is the GX1 at $244
http://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Electronics-Digital-Cameras/zgbs/electronics/281052/ref=zg_bs_nav_e_2_502394#1
The US economy is screwed anyway – market share in Asia is where the growth is, specifically in China.
Pity we don’t have Chinese numbers.
In China, however, Samsung is a major player as well (not in Japan, where the NX is almost impossible to buy in stores).
@lol
Wow, you are the centre of the universe…not.
Profit? Who knows? The Japanese bury costs in strange places on their financial sheets, which masks such things. However, we do have a few statistics that can be cited. For example, Nikon.
Nikon reported that they sold 9.7m interchangeable lenses compared to the 29.6m reported by CIPA, or a remarkable 33% of all lenses sold (includes companies like Tamron, Sigma, and Tokina, plus all the camera makers). You’d have to guess that Canon did as well or better. There’s no evidence that says that m4/3 owners buy more lenses than DSLR users, so you’d have to guess that Oly/Panny lens shipments match their overall market share in interchangeable cameras.
Who da hell give the information to CIPA?
And what is that mean by Hi-end camera …..Leica?
I see only these small size camera are getting more popular because you dont have to carry so much of shit
CIPA collects data from ALL of the Japanese camera companies. They collect “estimates”, “production”, and “shipment” numbers from every company monthly and anonymously, then report the results. Every now and again they do a report beyond the actual publishing of the numbers. This particular report was actually presented at the big Japanese photo trade show back in February.
The original Japanese is a little tricky on the “high end” statement. I personally took the statement to mean professional DSLRs, and my translator concurred.
How is it possible that Nikon J1 is on top with such a share?
You can see that from the list all are old models that are heavily discounted except NEX-7, EM5 and EPL-5 are current models. Not supprise J1 top the list as it is the cheapest of the lots.
That is only for Japan.
Besides “Nikon” pranks on it, which is a sign of quality for many people. IMHO Nikon had the right ideas and really tried to create sth. new, not like Canon, but they should have combined it with a slightly bigger and/ or better sensor. Maybe if these 1inchers get better it could become a real threat to the GF , PM, Nex 3
I didn’t see anything related specifically to FF or m4/3 from that CIPA link. Can someone please let me know for example where “50% less compact cameras and 24% less DSLR and Mirrorless” came from?
That is exactly what I was wondering.
The link is an analysis of the underlying CIPA data. That data is available at the CIPA site for anyone to access. I’ve reported on the actual mirrorless and DSLR numbers for 2012 and 2013 (so far) at http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/april-2013/mirrorless-shipments-down.html.
As to the 50% down and 24% down assertion, you have to look carefully at what data periods people are reporting on. Compact camera sales were down about 30% from 2011 to 2012, but have fallen almost half since their peak. There’s broad disagreement on how much compact sales will fall this year, but so far this year mirrorless sales are 81.5% of last year and DSLR sales are 76.8% of last year (Q1 2013 compared to Q1 2012).
Surprizing to see J1 at the top, and then more sales of the Canon M than the V1!
More sales of the Pentax Q than the Panasonic GX1, I quite like the GX1, surely its not that bad is it? I saw a Pentax Q for the first time yesterday – TINY!
And oddly the best (value) current Olympus camera isn’t there, the PM2 (has OMD sensor and is essentially the PL5 without the tiltable screen and mode dial)
PS – the UK Amazon ranking links shows ‘compact cameras’ ( Panasonic Lumix LZ20 ) and not interchangeable lens compact camera system cameras
Because (once again) this is the Japanese market only.
In Japan the Pentax thing (small and colourful) is doing preatty well. I saw several Q systems around. Anyhow: nowadays nobody prints large, and very few understand photography anymore…
@lorenzaccio
….ah you are saying canon and Nikon are wrong to push full frame and the “Japanese” don’t understand photography.
Well, as a whole, I would say that the 99% of people think that a photo taken with an Iphone is good enough, but then they can’t understand why there is no shadow detail or it sucks in low light.
So, yes, the majority of ppl do not understand photography, in Japan and in the US (and in Europe, etc.).
So: exactly the opposite. Canon and Nikon and on the only right path out there: going for the pro and semipro/high amateur market, which is the ONLY one going to survive in few years. All other markets will be fagocitated by cellphones and Ipads.
I have no idea of how you managed to misunderstand my comment so much…
I would add, since we are talking about the “magnificent” Pentax Q system: it’s not going bad at all, IN JAPAN. This is more than enough to understand that here a camera is not only a tool for pictures, but also a “cute” gadget to show to friends. IQ etc etc have nothing to do with this camera, as we know…
Admin, where do these numbers come from exactly, because I couldn’t see anything similar in the links?
“Japanese companies produced 44% less cameras (50% less compact cameras and 24% less DSLR and Mirrorless)”
The key word is “produced.” The key metric as I originally read the report when it was presented at CP+ was “versus estimates.” In other words, the industry estimated they’d make 2X compact cameras but actually only made X when it was measured. That still says nothing about shipments. In looking back over the production/shipment numbers you can see that the Japanese companies must have been overproducing to demand and holding inventory as camera sales peaked (in compacts) and plateaued (in interchangeable). Because of the nature of the subsidiary system, it could be even worse than it looks in the CIPA numbers, as a “shipment” generally indicates movement from corporate to subsidiary. If the subsidiary later has to discount that product heavily to get a customer to buy it, there will be cost chargebacks that get back to the corporate bottom line, and with the yen declining, those chargebacks are going to hurt more in the future.
I see. Thanks for the explanation.
the markets are floded whit products…isnt it better to keep the volumes steady and increase the margine… companies should build loyal customers wit quality products …listen them(why ep5 without evf?)and ofer them afordable lenses and accehesories…problem of mft bodies is they dont hold value much…apart of top models like gh2-3 and omd…so as users cannot get funds to buy brand new body they rather wait atleast 2 models…lenses genealy holds their valu
Increase the margins and improve the products and offer affordable lenses and accessories?
VERY SIMPLE . because in order to get such a viewfinder , the camera would have to be bigger which in turn would turn away the clientele who is looking for smaller cameras and does not mind using the LCD only for composing
In addition look at the side and the ratio of the optional EVF . now imagine how big the camera would have to be
Harold
Rubbish Harold. The Fuji X-E1 is a tiny bit larger than the E-P5, the Sony NEX-6 is a bit smaller. They both have a built in EVF and flash, and standard hotshoes.
Could have been said in a nicer way, but true.
The only thing to keep in mind is that the EVF quality when shrunk down to the Nex size falls off – many users complain of image tearing on the nex which we havent seen with the OM-D or any external Oly VF’s
Harold was assuming same VF quality as VF-4, otherwise you would have the EM-5 (well, with the hump though probably for accommodating the IBIS so to fit the retro heritage story as well, two birds with one stone if you want..). We will soon see (September?) how the Olympus line with in-built VF-4 will look like. But nothing that will satisfy our RF guys over here.. not yet though.
There are no IBIS components in the hump on the E-M5. I have actually broken one and took it apart so can confirm this.
Do you have pictures of the teardown?
Olypmus said IBIS the gryo sensors were located in the hump. While I thought this possibly to be true, I have always been sure the gyro sensors could have been anywhere else located within the body.
From what I see the total shipments of digital cameras are 98132 (2012) vs 115524 (2011). 15% less. Although, the total value of these shipments is actually up 1%.
If we consider cameras with built-in lens as “compacts”, then the total quantity of shipments is down 22% and the rest, interchangeable lens cameras, are up 28%.
Admin: I believe you are miss-using the term “pro”.
In reality money spending high end enthusiasts are far superior to pro’s in numbers and as a group is more significant compared to pro. Subsequently being the most income generation customer group.
It means m43 has a role to play and can survive, to some extent as back-up system.
Key issues for m43: Continue developing lenses, processors and sensors! Create niche products like the video Pana GH3. Build quality and handling that satisfies enthusiasts/pro’s. Close quality gaps like AF. It is fast but unreliable. With my Pana G3 I often thought I had correct focus – until a checked the file….. With my Nikon D800 AF almost never lets me down.
Then there are cameras for p&s upgraders – must be cheap – will never reach astronomic numbers – and subsequently will bring only small profit if any.
Well, I Think the conclusion is about right.
m4/3 is well established and has some great Primes but also ate a lot consumer or below grade stuff. I’ve the OMD which is great little cam but it lacks the lenses which the 4/3 System has. I’m not so interested in the Primes as I have a Leica M9P which in itself is league of its own. So I would be looking at the Zoom Side of Lenses and well that’s basically apart from two ok ones none existing. where is the (all weather sealed):
12-60 Replacement
50-200 Replacement
300mm F4
90-250 F4
EC14 & 20
…….
A compact, light allround, weather sealed go anywhere package which fits beside my Leica in one wotancraft ranger bag.
B
> For Panasonic and Olympus this means that they
> have to think on competing with Nikon and Canon
> in the high end market.
Yes, of course. They are doing it already. It’s obvious isn’t it…
> But the MFT sensor size may be the major
> limitation. A larger Full Frame mirrorless system
> may be required to go into that direction!
Hell no !!! This is just stupid obsession.
I use FF and 4/3. There is just very small segment
of photography, that really demands FF:
– Ultra low DOF (which is extremely overblown demand,
Personally, I would never buy FF just for that)
– Low light performance(Here FF has advantage for me,
but it is getting smaller every day. I would think
twice acquiring FF again today)
– There is also megapixel count issue, which is also
nonissue for me. Go and compare image resolution
of 4/3 and FF on DPreview, or somewhere else.
“A larger Full Frame mirrorless system may be required to go into that direction!”
This myth is absolute non-sense. the market of mirrorless is driven by what you guys called ” enthusiast” not by working pros. ( and some pros who have this as a carry-everywhere body). BOTH of these groups would absolutely have NO interest for a 35mm format which would be much bigger and heavier and not allow very bright lenses
IMO, the admin should not use those numbers to try to revive that old and tired polemic ( maybe it is his personal preference but that is not the issue here)
If you want numbers ,Just take a look at how many aps dslr are sold versus 35mm dslr’s
Harold
Nikon released the D600 and Canon the 6D. They also released a 5Diii and D800. In both cases after a long hiatus on new FF cameras. It is highly likely that rise is driven by this. It’s also highly unlikely they’ll release new FF cameras this year. The numbers this year may well be very different.
Nikon also released the D4, I think it is a combination of lower price models and critically with Nikon especially some superb sensors and awesome image quality , they have also been steadily updating their lower end F1.8 primes with excellent results achievable from lenses that are very well priced.The 50F1.8G and 85mm F1.8G in particular deliver excellent quality for the price. Conversely we are some getting mFT models like the GH3 launching at £1200 the new E-P5 + EVF costs £1150, the 12-35 launched at £875the 75mm at £800 { no hood lol} which when you consider the real DOF control is F5.6 for the F2.8 zooms and F3.6 for the 75mm is not really that special. I feel we are overpaying for much of the mFT gear which is reflected in the often rapid price decline, I bought the GH3 for Christmas 2012 for £1200 it is now £849 a 30% drop in a couple of months
@Anonymous
Jim Sterling in the house!
Declan, I post under one ID my name is Stirling [with an “I “} by the way . I do not post very often though as with most mFT fans I keep an eye out for upcoming models. I generally ignore your inane posts as you show zero ability to accept or understand basic numeracy.As for the post you are crediting to me it is not from me , though I fail to see one point that he/she made that is incorrect. I have two GH3 bodies which I love using and I was lucky enough to get both { plus the 12-35mm} all as part of the 30% off Lumix lifestyle promotion which was an excellent offer.So the quick 30% drop in prices has had no effect on me.
I am very happy with my mFT kit and very happy with my FF { Nikon D800/D800E } unlike you I do not care about the market position of the companies that I buy from { well as long as they sell enough to survive} I simply buy what is best for my needs, I have become an avid video user hence why the GH3 is so popular with me.I am looking forward to the OMDpro and hope that they have made a significant step forward in both C-AF and full speed support for FT lenses as I have the 50-200swd [ bought at a bargain price] and I am eying up the 150mm F2.You can make all the ludicrous claims about the health of Olympus finances, the honesty of their board and any other wild predictions you wish. Just do not expect thinking people to accept them especially when the actual data does not support them. I have one prediction for you mFT share of the interchangeable camera market has peaked and will now begin to fall back.
cheers
Jim
Well met Sir! YDDY/HAS(been)/Declan….you are about the one eyed supporter I’ve come across, and most of your comments merely take up space. But keep em coming, they’re almost worth it for the entertainment value. If you were American your name would be Tedolf….
Every forum has its own Tedolf -LOL!
But seriously that “Anonymous” post smell like Jim Sterling, heh?! (Just stirring the pot guys, be happy)
@Anonymous
Haha illy!
How many times do i have to repeat it lol it is STIRLING not STERLING
no Stirling that was you
and you have used other nicks including jim stirling
Do you not see the irony of hiding behind a fake ID { which you have done on many an occasion what with all those bans eh lol}while accusing others of doing the same , if I have anything to say to Declan I have no problem doing so using my own name.
Though considering for a while that when you replied to a post here you got the others persons email address filled in it is hardly a secure site.The fact that you can post using any name you want doesn’t help .So why not surprise us all here and man up and use your real name I will help you out it begins with R
“You can make all the ludicrous claims about the health of Olympus finances, the honesty of their board and any other wild predictions you wish”
You mean the published facts about their finances, declining sales and even their predictions that they won’t sell more cameras 4 years from now than they are now, as stated *in their own plan*?
Talk about ludicrous. Sheesh.
@Farkas
“”You mean the published facts about their finances, declining sales and even their predictions that they won’t sell more cameras 4 years from now than they are now, as stated *in their own plan*?
Talk about ludicrous. Sheesh.””
Those are exactly the points I was referring to Declan doesn’t subscribe to the numbers reality that the rest of us do.Perhaps a couple of minutes reading his pondering on all thing Olympus and you would see his truly ludicrous ideas , such as Olympus are actually doing well, the board did what they did to help Olympus not to save their high paid jobs etc etc
@Jimstir
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326897/Google-tax-avoidance-row-Internet-giant-accused-scandalous-tax-avoidance-scheme-whistleblower.html
I fail to see how a company using admittedly despicable but legal tax loopholes.Which Olympus and all other major corporations also do.Compares to a multi billion yen fraud that even with the Japanese tradition of covering up such things[ Olympus hand picked the members of the body that reviewed their practices, refusing any position on it to even high end shareholder ]resulted in mass resignations and ongoing criminal charges.Your argument is like a misbehaving child saying to his Mom its ok for me to steal because someone else stole something .That is beyond ridiculous ,the fact that other companies have reprehensible practices does not excuse the corrupt self serving actions of an Olympus board from their massive fraud which occurred solely to protect their highly paid jobs.
kk
I think so too
I don’t think we are overpaying for m43, but I have talked to a lot of mirrorless users who are tickled pink at the opportunity to get an affordable DSLR. If someone releases an (relatively) affordable FF mirrorless, that could bite into the FF DSLR Renaissance happening at the moment. Many folks like shallow DOF. You can call it gimmicky or what have you, you can look down on it, but with sub-$2K FF, I know a number of folks who have added FF to their mirrorless. They didn’t drop mirrorless, btw, but they did divert funds to a new DSLR. We’ll know in a year if they get tired of the size, or carry both systems, or move to exclusively one or the other.
Quite honestly…numbers like this are so questionable…and even if they have some validity, are they going to have any affect on my image making? No.
Are they accurate? most likely, not. Are they total world sales, broken down by reagion? No.
P&S sales are on the way out…hmmmmm..I did not need a chart for that a year after the first iPhone was introduced….
This info is funny…like most of the “weigh-ins” and conclusions based on it listed on this page.
I have to go make some images……… 🙂
Who cares?!!…..where are my Oly m4/3 f2.8 zooms admin?
Ok by zoom, but i will also do 25mm F1.8 coming soon.
-1
Off topic annoyance
“The only segment with growth was the High End Camera and Lens market. For example +14,1% Full Frame Lenses have been produced.”
Don’t you think that could be connected to, I don’t know, release of new FF cameras in both existing segments by everybody after 4 years of hiatus (D4, D800, 1D X, 5D3, A99) and creation of new FF entry level segment (6D, D600)?
This segment SHOULD HAVE HAD a spike in 2012 given the circumstances, but it is comparatively tiny and will probably fall asleep for 4 more years.
Oly and Pana has absolutely nothing to do there, as there are no FF lens systems any professional would have a second look. Do you propose creating digital FF cameras for OM mount?
They are winning in mirrorless (Oly >30%, Pana >29%), and should increase their efforts to compete with mass-market (APS-C) DSLRs – specifically, improve AF for sports and produce lenses impossible (or too big) for APS-C DSLRs – 20x zoom, f/2-f/4 4x-5x zooms, fast UWA primes (f/2) and zooms (f/2.8), fast supertele zoom etc.
I was thinking along the same lines: a 14.1% increase from a very small number is still a very small number. peevee’s point about FF’s “4-year hiatus” is so true, too.
I only wonder, will EOS 7Mk.II be FF, will 400D be FF and will Sony come up by an A88 so is FF, to next year. 😉
The “winning numbers you are showing are for Japan only, unfortunately.
The growth in FF lenses cannot be linked to new FF cameras (e.g. Nikon D600 and Canon EOS 6D) only … remember that Canon has, apart from the EF-S 60mm macro, no (as in zero, zip, nada, zilch) APS-C primes. This means all those people with APS-C DSLR cameras must buy FF primes, thereby skewing the statistics.
Admin, you have a serious FS (Full scale) problem with your site.
My previous post is not visible in TREE view, but visible in FLAT view. Take care of that, since I’m probably not the only one…
it’s a matter of cache. Just reload the page (i.e. not just hit refresh but navigate back to it) and your post will magically appear.
Interesting that the only two Pentaxes that made the top 20 list are the Q and K-01 – two cameras rejected by many traditionalists. I’m figuring K-01 closeout sales account for that model. But I understand the Q sells like gangbusters in the home market of Japan.
These numbers are precisely for Japan, so there is your answer.
Not sure about this. 2011 was the disaster, so the recovery time me be a reflection of down numbers in general. The FF models are were all new and did create a good bump for Canon and Nikon, but a 2x crop can co-exist.
I really cant hear that ff ‘propaganda’ any more. I don’t need bigger more expansive cameras and lenses, with the only real difference in dept off field. The reason why I choose mFT is the really good compromise in size, image quality and the debt of field.
I also think that this compromise can be interesting for pros-in the same way Leicas became press cameras in the 50th, while medium stayed in the commercial photography.
So please Olympus and Panasonic-don’t waste resource & development -stay with mFT size sensor, and just produce great lenses for the already great cameras 😉
@admin ,are you post on facebook about new camera(s),
and it’s come from Oly or Pany?
Watch your conclusions, Admin.
“This is clearly a sign that 1) the compact camera market is dying 2) The pro market is the only market still generating sales and money. ”
1 is a pretty safe assessment, especially when this data is considered along with other trends and reports.
2 needs a lot more data to back up as an assertion. Even presuming we equate “pro” and “full frame” (which is definitely not the case anymore) the only thing the data tells you is that more full frame lenses were sold, not that more money was made off of full frame lenses. This is because of two major missing pieces.
First, we don’t know how much money, if any, was made in the sale of each “pro” piece of equipment, i.e. the profit margin. If the camera manufacturers had to slash prices to make that growth happen, it is conceivable that they made nothing or even took a loss to gain market share. I don’t think they took a hit on each sale, but without data, you cannot reach the conclusion that the “pro” market is profitable. If you don’t think this is possible, take a look at all of the rebates the manufacturers have been putting out (including Nikon’s incredible “get a free kit lens” offer with the D600 shortly after launch).
Second, 14% growth in a tiny market means fewer actual unit sales than 24% shrinkage in a huge market. For example, I’m going to pull some numbers out of my ASSigned hypothetical number generator. Lets say that in the year prior to this report, there were a total of 1,000,000 “full frame” lenses sold, and a total of 10,000,000 “crop frame” lenses sold. 14% growth in “full frame” would be 1,140,000 sales while -24% in “crop frame” would be a little over 8,000,000 sales. As long as the profit margins are equal in this case (and in all likelihood they are not, but again, no data) the “crop frame” market is clearly much more profitable.
Yes, all of the numbers I give here are probably wrong. However, without the right numbers, the only conclusion you can reach from the data point “+14.1% sales” is that units moved in that category went up by 14.1%, which is only one part of the equation of how much profit is generated in the category, and an even smaller part of how to measure success relative to another category.
Most boring post ever.. I don’t really care about these charts, they are less useful than dxo charts. Luckily it’s sunny and I can go out taking pics! 😉
On the contrary, we’ve got some juicy trolling and the reveal of one of the resident fanboys plus a spat with his mates and a bumch of interesting comments from Thom etc. And for me was a rainy day, so..
Trolls are sometimes funny, but they keep repeating their show writing often if not always the same things.. OTOH it’s nice to read a nice and polite explanation from a non-troll. But again, since I’m not interested in economy, I don’t care about these selling (shipment, actually) chart. If it was a rumour concerning the end of m43 format then it would have been more interesting.
I observed first hand the conundrum faced by the camera-makers: many casual photographers already have a digital camera or two and have little interest in replacing them. Yesterday, I attended a civil war reenactment in Mississippi, and hundreds of people were milling around taking pictures of canons and troops wearing woolen uniforms. I was surprised to see how many had older models of compact digital cameras and 5+-year-old Rebels with the kit zoom lenses. For casual work, they create a decent jpeg photograph, so why bother updating? Possibly wi-fi connectivity will be welcome in a newer product, but I bet most of the tourists just do not care. What will convince these people to buy a new m 4/3 with lenses, or a full-frame? Probably nothing.
Oly always said that its main market was in Asia, and that the predominance of mirrorless would take ten years.
So all Western prejudices are misplaced, especially by Americans which have the slightest penetration of mirrorless, followed by Europeans.
Frankly the OP has distorted statistics to suit a Western interpretation. Does he really think that Asia cares about the 135 format, which was a European invention, and when invented a second best format?
IMHO the problem with m4/3 at the moment is only price. I understand that Jap. companies need desperately to recover profits, but if they overdo it, Chinese Kodak and others will soon undercut them.
In comparison to dSLR mirrorless is cheaper to make, and yet it is priced more. That might explain the stall.
Full frame might well be the mirrorless future. I’m holding onto some Minolta 24mm’s just in case. 🙂
Yeah in future, yes just future, we need only an dock for old lens(i have manye OM) by an FF sensor, WIFI and also good battery, so can we only use photne or Ipad, so have we FF camera. 😉
Looked like Stirling to me too. He wants him to think he just happened along and noticed his post and believe that he only uses the JimStir nick. Most likely reason for that is its a lie
oh look another coward posting anonymously
A Fujifilm X-E1 with FF sensor and a few fast primes is my ideal camera. GPS, Wi-Fi, touch screen and weather proofing are topping on the cake.
Lost souls fail to understand that 4/3 and m4/3 aimed at showing that 135mm FF was never needed in the first place.
Oly in particular showed that it could build optics which had twice as much resolution as 35mm lenses, and even across the frame, which the latter couldn’t achieve.
Until recently it was poorly served by mediocre sensors, but a yr. ago it showed that it can easily compete with 135mm.
So WTF are ignoramus trying to prove, if not their ignorance? Go and get a FF and suffer the consequences.
amalric
New! 49 minutes ago | Reply
“”Lost souls fail to understand that 4/3 and m4/3 aimed at showing that 135mm FF was never needed in the first place.
Oly in particular showed that it could build optics which had twice as much resolution as 35mm lenses, and even across the frame, which the latter couldn’t achieve.”””
The lenses need double the resolution just to match a FF lens on FF, as to corner resolution if you compare them at the same DOF they do just as well as FT lens and certainly as well as the often poorer mFT glass
“”Until recently it was poorly served by mediocre sensors, but a yr. ago it showed that it can easily compete with 135mm.”””
The E-M5 is still two stops behind the best FF sensors nothing has changed ,other than matching the last gen of APS D5100/K5 etc
“”So WTF are ignoramus trying to prove, if not their ignorance? Go and get a FF and suffer the consequences.””
The only folk I see trying to prove anything are the paranoid ,chip on the shoulder little Olympus sensor guys , well like you !
General is E-M5 sensor 1,2/3 stop back this best FF sensor, but on dynamic range is the 1,1/3 back. But anyway so is E-M5 sensor 2,1/2 stop better so E-P3 sensor is.
Lost Souls(gear junkies) ask yourselves this question. If full frame cameras and lenses were the size of micro 4/3 cameras and lenses…which would you choose?
And the same price
I’m actually happy with the gear I have. I know, crazy.
If it was even possible, I’d still choose the format which gave me the best lenses, and as portable.
BTW there is Leica, but it’s MF and ten times as expensive. QED.