Hi there,
2014 is almost 6 months old, and I thought it’s time to check back the rumors I’ve published in order to see what turned out to be correct, what was wrong, and especially to tell you how reliable the remaining rumors are.
For me, this is a good opportunity to make a rumor overview of the past half year and to answer to all those readers who dropped me an email asking me how reliable rumors published in the past months are.
Rumors NOT included: rumors from other sites and blogs, as I simply reported about them and never confirmed them with my sources (like digicame-info saying the X30 would come in February/March, the 18-135 price [it was published by a store], Fujifilm Bangladesh announcing a new X-mount camera, the freepatentsonline stuff, Dominik Fusina publishing his fake X-W1 and a few more).
And here they are. I added very low, low, medium or high rating to the rumors. I hope this helps you to get an orientation in the rumor jungle.
enjoy your day,
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HIGH RATING
– X100T successor of X100S
– XF16mm 1.4
– XF120-400
– X-PRO2 with APS-C sensor
– No more X-PRO1S, all R&D placed into the X-PRO2
– X30 coming in summer (so there is time until September 20)
MEDIUM RATING
– XF 35mm MKII (As Fuji has first to complete its lens lineup, it could take a while before the 35 MKII hits the market… and Fuji can change plans in any moment regarding this lens.) PLEASE NOTE: This rumor was not reported accurately by other sites (as petapixel and mirrorlessrumors). They quote FR, but say that the lens is “coming soon”. Which I never said. None of my sources ever told me a release date. In fact I said on May 5th: “I do not know when it will be launched nor which improvements we can expect, but, as you may guess, I’m restlessly working on it.”
– Faster AF for the 35mm MKII (This rumor is separated from the first 35MKII rumor, as it comes from another source and was posted in another article)
– X200 with 24MP, tilt screen, improved AF and wider detection area (Medium rating as I think that some, but not all the specs will be correct. The name has changed almost for sure to X100T).
– Button Upgrade for the early produced X-T1’s with mushy buttons.
– X-PRO2 available in 2015
LOW RATING
– X-T1P release with 4K viewfinder in July [An upgrade (or special/limited edition) is possible, but not anytime soon. And, as soon as also drphotorumor says that this rumor is not correct, I’ll downgrade it to “very low rating”. As soon as/if the top trusted Japanese source and/or the good old source tells me that this is wrong, I’ll move it into the wrong rumors 2014 list]
– XF 90mm (same as the 35 MKII here, the release of this lens is everything else but imminent, so a lot can change. Plus: I do not have any confirmation until now about it from trusted sources or sources who were right in the past)
VERY LOW RATING
– Sigma X-mount coming at photokina
– Medium Format Fuji (there are several anonymous sources telling me that this rumor is wrong. But I will post an update only when a trusted source speaks. And if they say, as to expect, that it is not correct, I’ll move it into the “wrong rumors” list)
_ _ _
And now let’s check the 2014 rumors
NOTE: You will see for example some X-T1 rumors (and others) listed sepratately. This is due the fact that there was, for example, a source telling me of a tilt screen, while another told me at a different time about the price and so on.
It’s fair towards my sources not to put everything together in the same pot and simply say “X-T1”, as every rumor listed here comes from a different source and was posted in different articles and could have been right or wrong.
Obviously the same goes for the wrong rumors. I don’t simply say “18-135 announcement”, but shared all 3 wrong release dates separately, so that they result as 3 errors and not as one.
CORRECT RUMORS IN 2014
– XF 18-135 coming June 16th
– X-E2 deal
– X-E2 firmware update with X-T1 EVF refresh rate coming soon (correct, it came a few days later)
– TCL-X100 will be out end of May (correct. It’s available since then in Japan, now also in Europe. Still out of stock in USA)
– TCL-X100 will cost €250 and be a bit cheaper than the WCL (correct. AmazonDE sells the silver version for €249, while the discounted WCL still costs €269)
– TCL-X100 will cost $350/400 (correct, it costs $350 at Bhphot & Co)
– TCL-X100 coming second half of April (correct, announced April 22)
– Lightroom 5.4 coming next week
– February/March lens deals with confidential Fuji document
– With the next update, Adobe will support X-Trans film simulation
– X30 won’t come in February/March as rumored by digicame-info
– Image and size comparison of the 10-24 with a protype 18-135 (real image)
– XF 16-55 and 50-140 will be weather sealed
– X-T1 announcement in January 28th at 4:30 AM London Time
– Improved WiFi for the X-T1
– UHS-II SD card slot, but no double SD-card slot + 8fps with AF tracking (Fuji originally planed a dual SD-card slot. When the first X-T1 image leaked here on FR, it even looked like a dual SD-card slot, but the Japanese source said it has just a single SD-card slot)
– X-T1 will cost $1300 / €1200
– First images of a prototype X-T1
– Firmware update for Zeiss will add PDAF support
– Tilt screen for the X-T1
– The name of the weather sealed X will be X-T1
– X-T1 will have the best EVF on the market
– black X100S will have a retail price of about £1000, about the same as silver version (the final retail price in UK is RRP £1099.99 for the black and £1049 for the silver version, according to wexUK. But now both are sold cheaper).
– XF56mm announcement at January 6th
– black X100S will be the only “new” X-camera presented at CES
WRONG RUMORS IN 2014
– XF 18-135 announcement on Memorial Day (wrong, but, as Rico said in his first look, the announcement has been postponed at least two times, so actually the date could have been origianlly correct, but the source did not know about the updated release date. NOTE: I excluded the rumor of an 18-135 f/3.5-4.8, as this was a typo by Fujifilm at the CP+ (see this image), and I just reported about it.
– XF 18-135 will come in May (I’ve shared this in Janaury. But what was right in Janaury, is wrong now. As we know from Rico, the release has been pushed back at least two times. Announcements are a very tricky part of rumors).
– XF 18-135 in stores in February
– X-PRO2 with FF sensor (wrong, and corrected a few weeks later by the top trusted Japanese source)
49 Responses
Way to go bloating the number of items that were “right”. Everything X-T1 related should be 1 item, for example. Sheesh!
as said in the article, these are separate rumors from separate sources. Same for the wrong rumors. XF 18-135 are 3 wrong rumors, not 1
chill brah. it’s rumors.
FYI, I made the list were everything is related. it’s unfair towards my sources, but it’s still a pretty good list I think… for a cheap rumor site 😉
CORRECT RUMORS IN 2014
– XF 18-135 coming June 16th at 6:00 AM London time
– The various deals (X-E2 and double kit deal, lens
deals and CO)
– X-E2 firmware update with X-T1 EVF refresh rate
coming soon (correct, it came a few days later)
– TCL-X100 and everything related to it
– Lightroom 5.4 and Adobe with X-Trans film simulation
support
– X30 won’t come in February/March as rumored by
digicame-info
– Image and size comparison of the 10-24 with a
protype 18-135 (real image)
– XF 16-55 and 50-140 will be weather sealed
– X-T1 and everything related to it
– Firmware update for Zeiss will add PDAF support
– black X100S and everything related to it (price, announcement)
– XF56mm announcement at January 6th
WRONG RUMORS IN 2014
– XF 18-135 announcements
– X-PRO2 with FF sensor (wrong, and corrected a few
weeks later by the top trusted Japanese source)
Even with the list tightened up a bit, I’d say that’s a decent hit rate. Kudos, Patrick. But just to be a devil’s advocate here, maybe a little more research is needed before posting a rumor. After all, just about anyone can e-mail you anything. Except wasn’t the X-T1p/b supposed to have been confirmed by a trusted source? I’d say if a source throws you under the bus like this, let them go. Not worth losing credibility by sticking with them even if they’ve been right before in the past.
Do you want me to share all the rumors I’ve never published this year? That would be also a pretty long list.
I do not post everything, believe me. Lot of stuff I’ve never published (and looking back I’m happy I never did that!)
I strongly believe in these 2 trusted sources. If they were wrong, then there is another reason, which I’m trying to understand now.
How about adding the erroneous announcement of an X-Pro1s and soon to come 35/1.4 Mk II to your wrong rumors 2014 list?!
who said it will come soon? Mirrorlessrumors and petapixel, but I never said it ;-).
The X-PRO1S rumor is of 2013. If you want to make the 2013 list, feel free to do it and to send me the list. You could be pleasantly surprised 🙂
When is the X100T expected? At Photokina in Sept?
Still waiting for feedback by trusted sources, but I think you could be right with your guess… especially since the X-PRO2 could come just in 2015, the photokina show could belong to the X100T
I’ll be at photokina this september for the first time in my life. Hopefully, the xpro2 will come out at that time. Could be my first X 😀
then I’m afraid you’ll have to wait until 2015 😉
If it doesn’t come out till 2015, they must be waiting for the organic sensor. If not, and they wait that long without anything special, people may be disappointed. Hopefully the very long wait turns out to be worth it.
There will surely be SOMETHING at the Photokina. Who knows what…
Probably after Photokina. It’s hard for a minor player to get much attention when all the big players are announcing things. They’ll want a stage of their own.
interesting… as they did for the X-T1. They originally planed it at the CES, but then postponed it to the 28th of January.
So on late January, with no other camera to be announced, the show was just for the X-T1.
Maybe. Supported by the events of last photokina.
But on the other hand I feel like the X-System has gained quite some popularity since then and has the potential to turn some heads.
So most probably they will announce a new camera shortly before photokina for more attention, so they can show it there.
Thanx for the effort Patrick, Happy summer greetings from Copenhagen 🙂
thanks. I wish you a good time too
Any word on the X-E2 getting the wifi remote feature in a firmware update?
I haven’ heard anything about. But I believe in Fuji’s Kaizen spirit 😉
Fuji, please make a WR weather sealed 100mm Macro f2.8 with true 1:1 macro. Please, please… 🙂
Question and Speculation:
Can anyone confirm that Fuji was using Sony sensors and there was something like a 1yr embargo after release on a Sony product? I vaguely recall reading that.
I was looking at the RX1 the other day and suddenly thought, hmmmm it’s been a year, could this sensor show up in the next version of the X100???? The RX1 is a flop by most counts, mostly due to price and few ergo flaws, maybe Fuji could get it right at a good price-point, ergonomics, etc… Just a little FF dreaming 🙂
the embargo is of 6 months
Some people are adamant that the sensors are produced by Toshiba and not Sony. I have seen a few references related to ChipWorks that show it. But I haven’t found any compelling evidence for either.
the X20 sensor is made by Toshiba, the APS-C by Sony
Thanks Patrick. So in theory this chip could be used to launch a FF. I have to think that Sony would want to recoup design and production costs this way. A long-shot idea at best but you never know. I great sensor too….
I would guess Fuji would happily take that sensor and put into an X100 style housing. Perhaps they have already and are just waiting till after the summer to release it. After all they must be doing something … right? What else could there be, the next X Pro if it keeps its form factor is really not much effort, and the current APS-C platform is getting old.
Keep dreaming about the good price-point 😉
I am a buyer at under $2000 (say $1799) Given the substantial jump in what you would get that should be a bargain. Question is, where does the $1000 (differential on my price) that Sony was asking come from? Margin? R&D? or manufacturing? I don’t think it was the latter.
Thanks from Montréal! I check your site each day 🙂
thanks Mehdi!
You’ve done a great job, Patrick. Appreciate all the hard work!
thanks, a nice word means much to me. It’s often not easy to keep the site running along with my full time day job or during my holidays. My friends tell me that I’m crazy, but they do not understand what it means to be an X-shooter.
So I’ll keep this space open for all of us until I have energies to do so. And a kind word gives a lot of energy.
So thanks a lot for that
Great hit rate Patrick! Congrats and thanks. I read the site daily. Make that, many times daily!
thanks… I’ll try my best to keep the hit rate high, despite the growing amount of wrong rumors that is sent to me. We are lucky to have the Japanese and the good old trusted source on our site, or I’d have spread many more wrong rumors 😉
What will be the aperture for the 120-400mm? Hopefully, something like a constant f/4. Any rumors on this at all?
Still have no details about the aperture. The source said back in February that the aperture range hadn’t been finalised as they didn’t want the same situation as with the 56mm, where Fuji initially said that it would be an f/1.4, then the release was delayed as the Fuji engineers squeezed a bit more out of it!
The aperture might have been decided now, but I don’t know it
No way will it be constant f4. That would be huge and >$8000. Look at the Nikon and Canon 200-400 for a rough size and cost for that. It will be probably like the Nikon 80-400 f4.5-5.6.
So Patrick, what do you think Fuji will actually announce at Photokina?
I’m working on it. I don’t think it will be the X-PRO2. So take a look at what remains in the high rated list 😉
If they keep putting off the X-Pro 2, they may risk loosing customers like myself. As much as I like the design of their cameras and their lenses, they haven’t provided any improvement in image quality since the X-Pro 1 was released over two years ago (several cameras later, and still the same sensor, with better AF). Despite investing in a lot of X-series lenses, I don’t see my self waiting another year, unless it is comes with significant improvements, including image quality.
improved image quality? what is wrong with the image quality from the X-Pro1? nothing as far as I, or my clients, can tell.
It is definitely very good, especially for skin tones; but at base ISO the dynamic range and resolution are not comparable to my DP Merrill. I find the dynamic range is very good using auto dynamic range, but has a tendency to lose tones in the shadows particularly in the blue and red channels when not using auto dynamic range. And, the images are softer than those from DP Merrills, which is very evident when zooming in 60% – 100%.
That said, in terms of noise performance, the X-Pro 1 is very good. For long exposures, it beats my friend’s D600/D610 (he always has to use the healing brush to remove hot pixel artifacts).
While I love my X-Pro 1, and it beats the DP Merrill in certain lighting conditions, with the X-Pro 2, among other things, I will need a considerable improvement in dynamic range and resolution to upgrade to it – not just improvements in features and AF and EVF/OVF performance.
x pro 2 and future XT2
i hope for new sensor with 25% extra performance for that money for a new body and hope what ever fuji do to retain picture quality and not just go on a mp space race
gps like who goes out camping or where ever remote without a garmin gps
movie is more short term important
Sadly no 90/2, I hope there will be 90/1.4 😀
As I indicated in previous posts, what do WE, the ones that already invested in this X-series stuff, the early and late adopters, the fanboys, the believers really want to see happening in the Fuji-world? For my 2c: I only would consider the upgrade to an X-Pro2 that can truly compete with the Leica M.240 and Sony A7-line. That means a stronger, more sensitive sensor, without the erratic X-trans CFA in favor of reliable, flawless demosaicing – leaving the terrible color bleeding artifacts and moiré sensitivity to the past. As a technical competent company, I hope they can Implement finally that already a few times promised ‘best AF of the market’ (also in the X-T1 it isn’t). Some features: make it a real hybrid RF, sweep all the aperture, shutter and other digital info stuff off the OVF/EVF towards small bottom and side displays like in a DSLR, to provide a clean, uncovered image. Streamline the user interface to allow faster shooting. Better built, more high-end body finishing and materials. That would make a camera worth to be called the top model, something that could even kill all the possible competition including Leica.
The XPro-2 will never be a true competitor to the A7/Leica M until it has a full frame sensor…which I don’t see happening. For the record I am find with the APS-C sensor size….but if you want full frame then you want full frame…
i kind agree with core quality i think EJPB isn’t asking for FF nor do I just ordered 56mm tho new sensor and wp magnesium body like XT1 would be cool – i would rather solid wp body over gps and flip screens just me old school new school 🙂
leave lower models build quality how they are most fuji x use don’t just get one body
get xpro2 and XT2 evolved then people can complain about this feature and that touch screen or some other thingy
I’d love to see a 90 mm soon. Preferably f/1,8 or at least f/2,0. 1,4 would make it dream glass.
Being the prime lens lover that I am, a compact and fast 2,0/135 would also suit me. 🙂
Premium glass is so much more useful than megapixels…