Our friend and 43rumors reader Thom Hogan just published his 2011 predictions. I copied the part related to Olympus and Panasonic. Please click here to read the full article at bythom.com.
- Olympus. We should get three m4/3 bodies from Olympus in 2011, but we’ll probably get two: E-P3 and E-PL2. The latter will be the incremental improvement to the [shoplink 14832]E-PL1[/shoplink] and attempt to try to keep them in the game at the low end of the mirrorless realm. Basically, that means a US$499 camera or less with lens at retail, which means that the main development drive is in engineering out costs, not making a better product. At the other end, Olympus needs a solid-as-a-brick, pro m4/3 body, and I’m guessing that Olympus will make that the E-P3 and keep the [shoplink 14830]E-P2[/shoplink] in the lineup as the middle. There’s a possibility I’m wrong, and that they’ll update the E-P2 to the E-P3 and add a higher end, more pro model, but that seems like a lot of work for Oly in a short time. True, the 4/3 DSLR engineering teams aren’t doing anything any more, so that argues for the three-body introduction scenario. Okay, so I’ll take what I wrote back and say E-PL2, E-P3, and E-P5 will appear. Like Panasonic (see below), we’ll have the lower models continuing the current sensors (with modest updates) and the upper models upping the megapixel numbers. We already know that we’re getting a super telephoto zoom (~70-300mm variable aperture, or is it the 90-250mm f/2.8 in m4/3 garb? I want the latter, but it’ll probably be the former), a 50mm macro, an 8mm fisheye, and a 12mm wide angle lens in early 2011. I think we’ll only get one additional lens delivered in 2011, and that would be a pro-caliber mid-range zoom (14-45mm f/2.8?) with the high end body. But by the end of the year I suspect that we’ll have a new lens roadmap that shows us a couple more high specification m4/3 lenses (fixed aperture zooms), another prime (likely 25mm), and another consumer zoom of some sort.
- Panasonic. The [shoplink 16254]GH2[/shoplink] got launched late in the year, so the high end for Panasonic seems set for 2011. Meanwhile the G2 isn’t out of date, either. Thus, it’s the GF1 type camera that’s where the action will be. We’ll actually get two variants: a lower level replacement for the [shoplink 14828]GF1[/shoplink] (call it the GF-2 [actually announced a week after I wrote that line]) and a higher level supplement (call it the GP-2). The lower end continues the current 12mp sensors (updated slightly), the upper end gets the GH2 sensor. Lenses are tougher to figure. But I suspect that, like Olympus, by going upscale with a model Panasonic needs to do the same with lenses, so we’ll get something like a 14-45mm f/2.8 and a 45-100mm f/2.8 pairing, maybe in Leica garb. What we really need is a 10mm or 12mm prime, though. Panasonic seems to be hot on the wides, so I’m going to bet that we get something like that in the lineup announced in 2011, too. We already have good word that we’ll see a 25mm f/1.4 in the coming year from them. Panasonic is making decent cameras, but they need to get their marketing and sales up to a higher level. And all the “G’s” and “2’s” in their naming (GH-2, G2, G20, GF-2) aren’t helping. Talk about confusing the potential buyer.
So what do you think? Feel free to comment this post. Thom is reading us!
P.S.: The first camera to be replaced is the E-P2 (which is currently in Stock with lens and EVF for $799 only….)
41 Responses
It’s refreshing to read Thom Hogan and Michael Reichman at LL as they have backgrounds and industry insights that few can compete with. Thom’s Olympus and Panasonic predictions make a lot of sense, let’s just hope that Olympus and Panasonic understand the market too.
Thom Hogan on the money
Mostly agree. I don’t expect new cameras from Panasonic anytime soon, since their line is new and complete for now. I do expect a couple of lenses (the 25mm and a high quality zoom).
Oly on the other hand needs a lot of work if they want to keep up. I expect 2 bodies in the first half of 2011: an E-P3 similar to the E-P2 but with some upgrades (sensor, hopefully) and a newly designed one with integrated EVF. Later on, they could also replace the E-PL1 though that’s not urgent.
They also need more and better lenses. All the ones they’ve released up to now are for lower end cameras (good for the E-PLx line), but they need lenses for the EP-x and higher end lines. At least a couple of high quality primes and a high quality zoom.
Thom’s prediction is reasonable enough, but if Oly upcoming E-P3 is just a repackage, weatherproof plus TruePic V+ engine but still using the same old 12MP CMOS sensor camera, they’re suiciding themselves.
Oly is actually at the intersection now, if they wanna go on for some extra miles, they really need to source for a new sensor supplier, otherwise, they’re pretty much done at this point (look like Pana will keep the 18MP sensor for themselves until there’s some newer technology breakthrough).
I know that Oly has looked at other sensors, but I don’t know that they’ve found one that’ll wean them from Panasonic. Kodak has fallen behind the other sensor makers, Fujifilm is too costly, Aptina doesn’t currently have a 4/3 sensor, Foveon is now Sigma-only, so they don’t have a lot of choices.
But yes, Olympus needs a new sensor. It could be 14mp if it were achieving state-of-the-art in terms of efficiency and noise, but it’ll need to be more than that if it isn’t (irony is cruel).
I’ve been looking at a lot of my Oly m4/3 raw images lately, and at base ISO the camera is fine, but there’s a fast downhill slope to DR and uphill slope to noise from there. I’m having to do a lot of post on anything shot ISO 400 and above. That’s just not quite good enough. So, either more pixels or better high ISO, or both.
Yep, Olympus definitely needs modern up to date sensor but Marketing Pixel increase should be kept as very conservative for maximizing increase in high ISO performance (also meaning no light wasting mirror like in Sony) and because of those nasty laws of physics limiting how sharp image lenses can draw…
It should be enough that compacts went straight off the chart and to the geosynchronous orbit in pretending that those limits don’t apply when marketing doesn’t agree with them.
But even more they need that serious above consumer level mirrorless body with good direct controls and ergonomy if they want chance to differentiate from others/rise above competition:
Panasonic has already well entrenched position in mirrorless consumer bodies with G/GH lineup and Sony is pushing to same market with A33/55 backed by their strong marketing.
And even more importantly while “Canikon”, and especially Canon seems to be as agile minded as Titanic in its turns and instead of pushing technology forwards has just tried to prevent any bigger changes to markets by new products where they don’t have strong existing market position they have to wake up sooner or later and they have huge religious following to spread their gospel even if products aren’t anything special.
As for definitely needed better lenses contrast AF speed should be mostly limited by processing speed and especially by data output rate of sensor so with newer tech in these it could be possible to keep reasonable focusing speed with existing 4/3 lenses even without more complex approaches. While Fuji style integration of PDAF into sensor would save from Sony’s light loss it surely makes demosaicing RAW data harder if those pixels can’t output data usable as normal image data.
As for other makers Panasonic seems to be incapable to making good ergonomy body and perfectly happy with their current market position.
Samsung’s ergonomy thinking is as good as Panasonic’s with all the ergonomical minuses of wannabe SLR design (just why that viewfinder has to be in the “middle of palm”, Olympus E-1 was the design filmless camera bodies should have gone for) and as another consumer electronics company are probably going to think that upgrade means oversized TV screen for destroying last hopes of ergonomy. (plus improbable that any other maker wants to jump to their system bandwagon)
For all the hype about being modern products cameras have sure done their best to crawl back to same old hole so I sure hope Olympus isn’t wasting their chance to get major visibility now that big makers haven’t yet gotten anything new out.
14MP on a 43 sensor is equivalent to 56MP on a 135 FF sensor. Do you suggest Oly should use an even denser sensor if they can’t achieve the DR and sensitivity of the competition? Granted, they will always lag behind, but why is the gap growing?
A 12MP sensor with up-to-date performance would be be well accepted. It should be fine for anyone upgrading from a P+S and perfect for current (m)43 that should, by now, understand the limitations of a smaller sensor.
olympus should use a sony sensor.
.. or the new Kodak senzor (with panchromatic pixels):
http://www.kodak.com/global/en/business/ISS/News/pressReleases/archive/2010/pr2.jhtml
But there is not exactly written that senzor for 43 is ready, only that there is 17 possible resolution and color options…
@ Ganec
The list at http://www.kodak.com/global/en/business/ISS/Products/Interline/index.jhtml?pq-path=14424 shows the KAI-08050 and KAI-10100 as being 4/3″ sensors. But these aren’t the new designs with the panchromatic pixels.
The KAI-10100 looks mildly interesting, but to be a serious contender for Olympus I’d expect they’d want to bump the resolution from 3760×2840 to at least 3840×2880 (if not 4096×3072) and enable 1080p output.
… and switch to the panchromatic design at the same time.
Some ironies exist in sensors and come into play. Technologies like back side integration (BSI) have more practical impact for smaller sensors than for larger sensors, for example. That’s why we’re seeing those designs pop up in cell phone sensors but not in APS and FF sensors. So, yes, I am suggesting that m4/3 needs to look at more pixel density. I haven’t worked out the breaking point of extreme diminished returns for m4/3 (it’s about 24mp for APS), but I’m pretty sure 12mp is below it.
interesting. keeping the same density that would be 15.67MP on a 4/3 sensor.
well according to the info in the recently published open letter to mfr’s on LL, large sensors seem to badly need the back-illumination trick but many sensor technologies tend to be tried first in smaller formats then gradually moved up to larger ones. IOW manufacturers like to experiment first in compact sensors, and during the experimental period to keep us quiet, they untruthfully tell us that the new trick is only needed in tiny sensors.
Now M43 has taken off I can see a gap for a 120mm F4 macro. Pany has 45 and the rumor is Oly say 50 ?? in 2011, there is nothing else. Will they fill this gap ?????, do you think this will happen.
F2.8 sounds good, fast enough for me, but how heavy and what size, that’s my concern.
Waiting for the 12mm prime, got the 20mm, not keen on the 14 or 17
I can see the pany 18mp sensor being developed in hardware and software, must say the GH2 is looking good for my second body.
I think that the Oly Truepic V+ and the Pany 18mp could be a great combination, just can’t see it happening.
Looking forward to future developments as the system fulfills all my needs, with the exception macro
The GH2 sensor, assuming Panasonic keeps up with their current strategy, will not be used on other cameras (same as the GH1’s). Instead they are likely to come up with the rumored 14MP sensor.
Since they already have four ‘differentiated’ lines (Gx, Gxx, GHx and GFx) I believe it is quite unlikely they will come with a ‘pro’ camera. Their higher end line is the GHx.
As Leica has expressed its lack of interest in (m)43, there is probably no reason to believe Panasonic will develop a metal alloy m43 version of the L1 – the Leica branded models were the only thing that justified such expensive cameras. Frankly, Leica has a good way to stay off Panasonic 43 sensors (though most likely we will continue to see Leica branded, Panasonic made compacts).
— That may of course change if they manage to keep up with Sony and Canon and come up with an adequately performing sensor.
Olympus should probably come up with a higher-end bridge camera that will offer better support of its 43 lens lineup, this has also been rumored. It may be built around another manufacturer’s sensor (or is it wishful thinking?).
An E-PL2 is probably in the works as well. It will offer nothing new but will probably be even smaller and very aggressively priced (GF-2 equivalent).
That would provide them with 3 different lines that have, for the most part, something to tell them apart from one another: a ‘pro’ line that supports PDAF lenses, a mainstream PEN lookalike line and a lower end line.
I think there’s a 50% chance are they will sell their imaging division or merge with another company (they’ve sold their medical diagnostics division some two years ago) – that is *if* they find someone who is willing to buy them out.
Paulus 2011 “predictions” (speculations)for Olympus:
Instead of the pro-caliber mid-range zoom (14-45mm f/2.8?) there will be
– a high end professional M.Zuiko 12-75 mm/F2.5-3,3 (?)
(like Panasonic or even faster (?!) with motor zoom for video –
dynamic autofocus for Full-HD-Video and
Zoom-controller on the
– new high end professional micro four thirds camera “E-P5″.
A better brand name (instead of ” E-P5”) would be
– “Olympus EM-1” ( Olympus Electronic Masterpiece –
like the legendary OM-Series
OM = Olympus Masterpiece) in addition to the Pen-Series
– The M.Zuiko 12-75 mm will be the micro four thirds version of the
famous 12-60mm f/2.8-4.0, with outstanding optical quality
and industry leading autofocus speed and accuracy
(additional manual focusing feature like the 12-60mm)
and compete with the new Canon 12-75 mm f/2.8-4.0,
EIS 60 (Canon mirror less camera Evil-Line – 2011)
– The EM-Series (Olympus Electronic Masterpiece Series) will build
together with
– the E-Px and E-PLx (Pen-series) and
– the traditional four thirds Line
one beautifull, highly compatible Olympus E-System.
Target group for the high end EM-Series and the traditional four thirds Line will be Professionals and Enthusiasts.
What Olympus needs is a redesigned Olympus O (not OM, O! A designer Limited Edition camera launched in 1988 with only 20,000 units released), slap it with a FF sensor, launch it with three SHG prime lenses, and with me leading the marketing team. :-p
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bawtrees/4581080360/in/pool-1112288@N24/
Olympus marketing is as interesting as hardware engineers. Well, it’s a very engineer-minded company, thinking superior product will grow customer base on its own. Not wrong per se (maybe outdated), but a little marketing could help its customer gain confidence and discover its product and garner brand recognition.
Olympus needs three lines. Olympus A, Olympus O and Olympus I. In case you are wondering, AOI is Japanese for blue, Olympus Blue. I won’t bore you guys with product placement and logistics, but basically I-line will replace PEN for ultra-wide distribution, available from Target to Amazon. Olympus A and O will have selected availability, targeting high-end collectors and pros, respectively.
Olympus needs to give some Olympus O’s out to some nation’s top photographers and make them Olympus Ambassadors. Hold photographic competition with Olympus Ambassadors as if they were Iron Chefs (today’s secret subject is…, moonrise). Olympus-hired, Olympus-educated and friendly Olympus Experts will handle sales on the field (nothing worse than a salesperson trying to make a sale to an already cynical customer, and they end up fumbling through the control doesn’t know what to do, but since they know Nikon or Canon, so they turn their customers that way). It essentially needs to throw some multi-million dollars launch events (R&D costs extra) if they have any ambition to trump Canikon. Olympus also needs to improve relationship with logistic partners (i.e., retailers) for higher volume sales. Otherwise, they should feel content that they’re the leader of medical telescope instead of fighting the dog fight in this war zone with Panasonic (supposedly a partner) pulling its leg.
Dear CL!
“…What Olympus needs is a redesigned Olympus “O-camera” with a Full Frame Sensor, launch it with three super-fast SHG prime lenses, and with member CL leading the marketing team….
Very good idea! Congratulations to your additional marketing strategies!
You should immediately contact the Olympus marketing and production teams and make your dreams reality.
Best regards
Paulus
Sounds like Thom’s definitely done his homework. Exciting times to come in pany and oly do in fact work some magic on the m4/3 line to produce some ultra-robust bodies + fast zooms.
I think next year will have some nice new items. But I do think expectations are way to high. If pany had a new sensor coming they would’ve used it for Gf2. The Gf2 won’t even be released until january and if they had early sensor samples they would have used them. Ramping production is probably half a year away once the sensor is finished. My guess is that Pany will release a G3/G30-combo (dslr-like mid and budget model) with a new 14mp sensor late summer or september. No new Gh- or Gf-model. Oly will use that sensor for the E-P3 premium model late next year. I would think oly is planning a dslr-like model with weather seal but I’m not sure they will have it ready for next year. Maybe keep the E-PL1 as it is or release a cheaper version with the same sensor and capabilities (like the E420 to E450 ‘upgrade’).
Lenses I’m guessing a 50mm oly macro f2.0. A oly ‘pro’ 12-60 2.8-4.0 or so. I also think they might do a wide prime. Pany has probably dealt most of it’s cards already. I’m guessing they might release a new kit 45-200. One more 3D-lens. A very expensive Leica 25mm f1.4. Not sure they will do anything else. I don’t see a portrait prime, but I do hope for it!
(However Voightländer might release a 35 f1.2(?) or 58 f1.4 (?) lens, fully manual but hopefully with electronic contacts for exif and automatic focus assist)
“If pany had a new sensor coming they would’ve used it for Gf2.”
Much like the E-PL1, the GF2 is about consolidating market position by introducing an entry level product that is less expensive to produce. That means tweaking an existing component, not introducing something new.
Any prime with F1.2 or 1.4 and pancake are welcome.
M4/3 is just worthwhile to live for small lenses. Zoom lenses won’t bring any good on size.
Take a look at Thom’s 2010 predictions and you’ll see he has a pretty good hit rate. He didn’t foresee G2/G10 and we’re yet to see the high end Olympus, but there are still two months left of this year.
I mostly agree with Philip on Panasonic. Their body upgrade schedule is 18 months, so we’ll have a real GF1 successor in March and G3/G30 in September. I presume all will feature the new 14 MPx sensor, that will also be in E-P3.
Olympus, apart from E-P3 is harder to predict. Having stopped 4/3 development we are yet to see where they will head next. Modular, DSLR-lookalike, rangefinder, ultra-compact, all are possible body styles. I suppose current cameras are going to get their successors and there will be one that resembles Panasonic’s Gx line.
As for lenses, the roadmaps leave little to imagination … Use this site’s search and you’ll see.
I’m sorry I keep saying this over and over, but but I’m disappointed Hogan didn’t mention it: SOMEBODY in the mirrorless space needs to offer an AF medium tele faster than f/2.8.
A fast “portrait” optic has been a bread-and-butter lens for any serious system since the days when the hot setup was an 85mm f/2 Sonnar on your Contax II. Every DSLR player has at least one lens in this very useful category. But M43, NEX, Samsung? Nuthin’ doin’… even though this is hardly a rocket-science specification and there are scads of good existing designs out there. Maybe an independent will step up. Hello, Sigma, how about your 50/1.4 in an M43 mount?
Exactly what I’m thinking! A 80-90mm eqv very fast lens with fast AF. Preferably cheap – moderate price. Say a 40mm f1.4 with AF for $300-400. It doesn’t need to be that sharp (we are talking portraits here) and not even that small or pancake. No weather seal. No macro. Don’t need internal focus. Don’t need IS. Apart from a need for large aperture I’m ok with fairly low specs. Heck, I ‘m using a pentax 50mm 1.7 now so anything better than that would be fine
It does need to be sharp, because otherwise all the measurement-obsessed people like us who read forums won’t buy it. It also sure as heck needs internal focus, otherwise the AF won’t be fast.
Exactly. This is the main thing is keeping me from buying any mirrorless again (I sold my G1 in June, intended to buy GF1, but waited for the portrait prime). I guess I’ll switch to whoever will release one first, maybe it’ll be Sony (they need a 30mm f/1.7 or faster too).
Only caveat: it does need IS and AF must be fast (so Panny is more likely to be able to produce it than Oly). I used a 50mm f/1.4 (see my website linked above) and, heck, MF and motion blur bite very hard!
Take the GF-1 (or E-P1), slap a EVF in it, and Olympus IS, add a decent (not too big) grip on it and small flash for remote control for other flashes, and call it a day. I can sacrifice a few millimeters for that. The Fuji X100 is pretty close to what I want.
I guess there will be some wide primes coming from Panasonic next year. I think that is one of the concerns of its AF-100 potential users. But I wouldn’t dare to estimate their prices LOL
Whatever new bodies will come, please let us hold them in the hand properly, not just pinch them with fingers…
This would work, if Panasonic and Olympus used their brains as regular dSLR makers.. they dont. Panasonic is trying to fight windmills with GF2. Olympus attempts to make suicide with E-5.
Both of them could made pro-zoom already. 12-35mm F2? For example.. Olympus have 14-35mm F2 for 4/3s and its really good lens.
Im pretty sure, no one except Olympus and Panasonic knows what future brings. And Im afraid, that maybe even they dont.
The Internets seems confused what the GF2’s top video output is. And that’s not surprising. For PAL, it’s actually 1080p25 (but in a 1080i50 wrapper), yet everyone incorrectly focuses on the wrapper. Panasonic’s marketing seems to be confusing everyone.
For background info, see this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_segmented_Frame
Oly is in trouble. When mft was introduced, pana right away decided to focus on it, neglecting their 4/3 stuff, while Oly wanted to protect their 4/3 stuff. This resulted in different market segments tackled by the two companies. Turns out that Panasonic had the better idea what customers might be interested.
Now Oly has to do something, like a more professional top model, betterl enses or a more systemic approach, offering more pro accessories lke a plug-on zooming OVF, control monitor, equipment for V-DSLR usage etc. Investment protection for buyers via the approach “think first, then develop” might help in building up customer trust. Hope Oly still has enough money.
NEX will kill MFT. its smaller (how embarrassing is that!), better image quality and even cheaper. that is what will happen next year, if olypana are as lazy as they come
It’s also less usable and the lenses are much much bigger. When looking at the Sony crap, don’t just look at the bodies, consider the whole package.
I don’t like sony crap either, but you have to acknoledge that:
– they are indeed higher IQ and cheaper
– it’s not less usable after last firmware update (dpreview conclusions changed!)
– their wide pancake is pretty small (and very useful fl, unlike panny’s 14mm).
I personally just want primes, so I look forward to their normal and tele pancake. If they came out, I’ll switch.
If panny/oly will release a 24mm-equivalent f/2.8 and a good portrait option, I might stay (but what about IQ and price?)
Couple of random comments:
Reading on other boards, expect Olympus to see a decent spike in the sales of the 14-35 and 35-100, to match with the AF100 that Panasonic is putting out.
If they were to make these µ4/3 and with video style focusing capability…
Which also matches with their need for decent top shelf lenses for µ4/3 in the normal sense.
The real pity about Olympus is that their real ticket has been their lenses for so long, and yet it has now been pretty much since the release of the 12-60 _four years_ ago since they have really delivered a top quality lens. The 14-35 is great optically, but the teething problems killed it. None of their µ4/3 lenses are great; good, but that is not what Olympus is about.
If Olympus doesn’t deliver one or two stunning lenses in 2011, ‘maintaining’ will drop to ‘falling’.
who cares about the cameras? They are good enough. We need bright lenses, zooms and primes. 12-50/2.8, 35-100/2.8, 10/2.8, 25/1.2, 50/1.2, 100/2.8 macro, 250/4.0
I think the problem with lenses is figuring out which ones significant numbers of people will buy and what they are prepared to pay for them. The issue with very fast lenses is that they will be sufficiently heavy and expensive to put off many micro 4/3 users who after all wanted a compact system.
I would be interested in a fast prime, i.e 25 mm f1.4 but may be put off by a high price such as that of the 4/3 25mm f1.4.
I don’t agree with the need for fast macro lenses.
I would prefer for my damselfly and dragonfly photography to have a reasonably compact telephoto macro, e.g. 75mm f3.5 or 100 mm f4. I find wider apertures pretty redundant for macro work because of the limited depth of field.
The superwide prime is an interesting idea but I would prefer a 9mm f2.8 or f3.5. If Olympus and Pansonic collated what every user fancied we would have a range of about 100 lenses.
panasonic, i’d like to see in the next months a new camera (could be called GP2 ?!?! )with a reel good built-in lcd viewfinder, a better grip than the GF1 (camera could be a little much bigger…)
and a reel good zoom also like a 14/45 2.4 …
nothing more …