The post about the Quesabesde article created a lot of buzz on 43rumors, dpreview and many other forums.
I wanted to share with you a small summary of facts and a personal opinion about the future of FourThirds.
A little bit of history:
We can say that all began with the interview on Amateur Photographer where a Olympus US manager said that “The Olympus E system of FourThirds cameras is likely to be completely mirrorless in two years time, according to Olympus America’s DSLR product manager.“. After that statement Olympus released official notes saying that FourThirds will continue to exist.
But since then rumors and speculation about a possible FourThirds “dead” have been floating around the web and never stopped. We received many mails from people saying that 43 will not have any future.
Curiousely we noticed that soon after the Amateur Photographer article we started to receive many rumors about Olympus hybrid or modular concepts. Those are really vague descriptions but such rumors came from different and sometimes also very known sources.
My two cent about the FourThirds future:
I do fully trust Olympus when they say that they will continue to develop the FourThirds line. But to me the question is not so much “if” they will continue but “how” they will continue. Olympus needs to invent something special to make FourThirds interesting for (semi-)professionals.
Today Zone-10 posted a new article where they predict the merging of the technologies using modular construction and adaptors: http://zone-10.com/cmsm/. Read it, it may gives you some hint on what could happen with FourThirds!
Anyway, Photokina is getting closer and the E-3 successor will give us the asnwer we need (I hope)!
A.
12 Responses
>Anyway, Photokina is getting closer and the E-3 successor will give us the asnwer >we need (I hope)!
I am afraid the E-3 successor won’t give us the asnwer regarding the future of 4/3. Perhaps Olympus themselves will..
Apologies, as I’m not so versed on the 43rds cameras, but other than having an optical viewfinder and better autofocus speed due to the nature of mirror vs mirrorless focusing what advantages does the 43rds design have over m43? And which of those will likely be mitigated over time as technology continues to improve? (I presume the gap in autofocus speed will continue to narrow generation by generation.)
Hi,
With reference to the line “the merging of the technologies using modular construction and adaptors” from Zone10, I do not want a modular system that can take my 4/3 lenses, I want a solid, weather sealed workhorse, like my E-1 that can take my 4/3 lenses.
If the move is towards m4/3 then something needs to be done with the current m4/3 lens line up, they are just not fast enough. (I will leave the weather sealing element for another day).
In the next couple of years I will be retiring from full time work, and will be taking the majority of pictures for myself, rather than for someone else, so I am planing to replace my E-1 very soon and I am hoping that the E-3 replacment is, indeed, the camera that will enable me to stay with Olympus. Even if the E-5 is the last “real” DSLR that Olympus make for the high-end user, it will see me well into my retirement years, but if it is not a “real” DSLR then I will move on to “CaNikon”, well Canon as I have never been a Nikon fan, and probably go full frame at the same time. This is probably the last time I will have enough cash to change systems if I have to.
Regards,
John.
Man, I would really like to know what is Olympus at about .
I wander why you are unable to see what is happening. You are quoting Zone-10 predictions, but it is dead obvious, that what Zone-10 guy has written, is just a summary of your and Quesabesde site.
How rumor mongering mill operates here (in plain BASIC) for readers, who
better understand structured languages, than human talk (forgive me for syntax
errors, my serious programming ended several years away):
00 REM — PROGRAM RUMORMONGER —
10 REM — Guy X reads new rumor from rumor site —
20 READ new rumor
20
30 REM — He has nice idea what would be cool —
40 nice idea = rumor + RND(rumor)
50
60 REM — He puts it online —
70 message = rumor + nice idea
80
90 REM — His message reiterates plentifully in community —
100 LOOP
110 message = message + nice idea
120 ENDLOOP
130
140 REM — When nice idea can not be tracked back to author —
150 REM — suddenly inevitable happens —
160 new rumor = message
170
180 REM — Rumor sites pick up new rumor and publish it on front page
190 WRITE new rumor
200
210 REM — Here we go again —
220 GOTO 20
230
If there are some serious sources in this info hodgepodge, they are simply
not visible in this welth of “nice ideas”.
It is this loop, where “trine sensors”, “modules”, various “converters”, “adapters”
etc originate. If any of them is real, we just can not know it because of all this clutter.
For all those who do not understand programming languages, and have missed it
in the childhood, please read this story, called “It’s Quite True”, By Hans Christian
Andersen in 1800 and something.
http://www.andersen.sdu.dk/vaerk/hersholt/ItsQuiteTrue.html
It’s quite revealing. And you can read it to your children too, if you have any…
With regards… Tropical Yeti
@J: The two main advantages of 4/3 as a format are telecentricity and weather sealing.
Telecentricity was proposed by Olympus back in 2000 as a solution to sensor falloff from oblique light rays on digital sensors. Film was a lot less sensitive to off-axis light, so this was not a problem in film days, but when digital sensors first came out, they suffered from (sometimes severe) vignetting in the borders of the image, as light rays that were not perpendicular to the sensor were simply not absorbed by the photosites. However, modern microlens design has made this much less of an issue than it was 10 years ago, and there are plenty of full frame formats (and medium and large frame) that are happy using traditional non-telecentric lens designs. The drawback of pushing for telecentricity was that lens designs were more complex and expensive to manufacture, and bodies ended up being bigger than you would expect from the sensor size due to the long flange back distance. To top it off, not all 4/3 lenses were telecentric, and not all their telecentric designs were free from vignetting either. In the end, Olympus bet on the wrong horse in the race, because they couldn’t have foreseen that the problem would be mostly solved at the sensor end instead of the lens end. I believe Nikon does some post-capture image processing to reduce vignetting as well, which is a lot more feasible on today’s high DR sensors than those 10 years ago.
The second strength, weather sealing, is only seen in the pro bodies like the E-3 and in Oly’s HG lenses. Many other manufacturers have some degree of weather sealing on their high end cameras and lenses, but Oly’s seems to be one of the better ones, if not the best. Due to the increased bulk and cost, this is a feature that I don’t think will migrate to the u4/3 world in a hurry.
With 10 years of pushing 4/3, Olympus and Panasonic never made much headway in the DSLR space, compared to the huge upsurge in mirrorless camera uptake spearheaded by u4/3. BCN Rankings have mirrorless system cameras now making up over 30% of sales in Japan, with NEX and the u4/3 cameras as the main players. I guess it’s only natural that Olympus would want to try and combine the strengths of the two lines. Let’s hope they don’t kill off what makes both formats good in the process.
If their predictions are true, I just don’t know…EVFs will have to get a whole lot better before I, and I suspect many other photographers, are happy using them for everything. At present I think the idea of an EVF “pro” camera is a joke. Are we hearing any rumors of other manufacturers making this move? I do not think we are.
I think these waters are muddy enough, and frankly I don’t see any value anymore in following the yo-yo of all this.
All I know is I’m tired of having to defend my Olympus system against fellow shooters I see every weekend who want to show me how amazing their new systems are. In fact the studio I shoot for as an independent sees my setup now as inferior, which affects their tendency to use me over their D700 / Canon owner/independents.
Don’t get me wrong, the incredible results I think I get for them with SGH glass and IQ should stand on it’s own merits…but if the perception is cutting into assingments because Oly is not keeping up in bodies…well, I’ll be leaving them…very regrettably….
The day, falloff light on sensor,is not a probelm. But telecenticity, and combo a sensor so responds on oblique light is a good thing for Olympus. The is more easy a change focus on sensor noting at so much destruction, maybe at contrast AF also. ( I think like so a 4/5″ film camera)
Totally agree with previous comments.
Olympus are taking way too long to deliver the goods or make a statement about the future of 43rds!
I hope the E-3 replacement is not only a CAF system with an EVF…
After playing around with the Sony NEX 5 and the Olympus EP-L1.
Olympus is behind Sony on CAF technology.
I should know as I was using a Sony DSC-R1 five years ago and even the CAF on that is better.
If Olympus don’t deliver something special to replace the E-3 at Photokina then…
I’m dumping my E-3 and the three HG Zuiko lenses and settling for a Nikon D700 and a couple of good lenses…
Lucky for me I can still get decent trade on my second hand gear in Japan…
12MP is enough for me too Olympus as long as they are FX and low noise yeilding pixels up to ISO 3200.
I’m sick of hearing”Oly will abondon 4/3…no it will not” news and rumours. If they are STILL attached to 4/3, then give us something! Their marketing strategy is horrible.
Personally, I think they WILL abandon 4/3 and they knew that before they even released any m4/3 camera! Of course, they couldn’t just say “look people, 4/3 is no more, don’t invest your money in 4/3 cameras and lenses.” Hell no.
Instead, they gradually gave less and less optimistic news and more info on m4/3.
I’m sick of Olympus. I have several HG lenses and E30 camera. Buying E30 was a big mistake. They released only one firmware update yet the camera clearly has an AF accuracy problem (same like E3, but at least they tried to fix that with v1.5).
I should have sold all Oly gear and went straight to Nikon D90 and 2 good zooms. At least, with Nikon you know that they won’t abandon F format because of some industry trends (not that easily anyway). And you know that they will support the cameras they release with firmware updates. And you know that their cameras CAN focus properly!!
Ivan,
From my experience of evaluating many D-SLR brands and lens combinations.
I believe there are always degrees of compromise with such products.
Even in the flagship Nikon D3X body.
When shooting in 14-bit RAW mode it slows down to 1.8fps.
However, it’s unfortunate that your Olympus experience was not a happy one.
After reading many rumours and comments on this site recently.
I got wondering if I should also upgrade now and save a little on the trade-ins.
So I spent most of Saturday in camera stores in Tokyo evaluating all the competition.
Somehow I still find the build quality, layout and responsiveness of the E-3 to be one of the best for the price.
Especially when matched to the 12-60mm f/2.8-f/4.0 SWD and 50-200mm f/2.8-f/3.5 SWD.
Unless I’m prepared to spend significant dollars.
Upgrading to a D-SLR with a 36mmx24mm image sensor and some pro grade lenses.
I won’t see significant improvements in my image quality.
I understand that many 4/3rds users feel cheated out of a lack of commitment by Olympus to address reported problems.
Also having to wait three years and still no statement about the future of the format or a likely E-3 successor.
However we do know that Olympus is an innovative company.
They are capable of producing unique, high quality products in an otherwise predictable / staggered release market.
I would like to think they have been busy over the past three years.
Building a better camera that can address the short falls and surpass our expectations in some ways.
Some past rumours suggest an E-3 replacement was ready to be launched in December 2009.
So Photokina 2010 is a big test for Olympus.
If they fail to deliver it will probably be the end of 4/3rds and a lot of angry users will be switching over to Canon or Nikon.
Remember though, it took them four years to replace the E-1.
And if you look at the Image Quality from the EPL1 (their latest m43rds offering).
It’s one of the best around in terms of image sharpness and colour accuracy.
Even noise control is vastly improved over the E-3, E-30 models and much closer to APS competitors.
Although I do hope the E-3 replacement can offer at least 1 stop better noise control.
If you are serious about upgrading to Nikon then please consider the following.
The build quality and AF system in the Nikon D90 is inferior to the Olympus E-3.
The D90 has only a 96% OVF accuracy.
It also has an 11 point AF, but only one is cross type.
The Nikon D300s has the superior 51 point AF with 15 cross type. Same as the D300 had.
Capable of engaging multiple focus points on a subject and 3D tracking.
It also has 100% view finder accuracy and similar build quality to the E-3.
BTW, Nikon dumped the DX format from its professional line-up with the announcement of the D3.
There were not many professional grade DX lenses made either.
Most have moderate maximum apertures (3.5 to 5.6), plastic construction and are made in Thailand.
Therefore, I would recommend investing in the newer FX lenses.
Better glass, metal bodies and made in Japan. Should last a life time.
They will work well on a DX body such as the D300s too.
Despite the limitation of the 1.5x crop factor for wide angles.
And also gives you an upgrade path to an FX body.
Otherwise consider a D700 if your budget can stretch that far.
Good luck with your decision.
The best thing for users to understand is that camera companies have no loyalties to their consumers. If they can abandon camera systems in the past like the OM , MD,FD, Pen f, they can and will abandon their current systems whenever they see fit.My best advice for Olympus consumers is not to keep hoping that Olympus will stick with 4/3, but to think from their pocket book first,just like the companies do.Invest your money in a SAFE system, like Canon or Nikon. Chances are, those 2 companies will still be around in 10 or 20 years from now.I too, have a pile of old Maxxum lenses but I’ll be damned if I’m going to sink more money in the Sonyminolta system now that ive recently heard rumors that they may abandon the full frame market.Minolta was known for their lack of direction and lousy commitment to their users, and now that has also diseased Sony alpha.
I really like the Olympus ep2 but the problem is looming on the horizon.Which is that Canon and Nikon are rumored to be developing their own small mirror or mirrorless cameras.When this happens, and when companies like Olympus see that they cant compete with Canikon, guess whats going to happen to the micro4/3 system? Bottom line, wait wait wait for Nikon and Canon to have their own mirrorless system, and then decide where you want to plunk down your hard earned dollars. Play it safe, look after your own financial backs first, cause companies like Olympus arent going to look after yours for you.