This is a must read! Thom Hogan talks about the future of digital photography: http://bythom.com/design2010.htm.
According to his predictions DSLR
But there are also very interesting considerations about social network integration and video recording!
7 Responses
I think their’s one segment missing : compact with big sensor. I’d love a Digital full frame Contax T3 !
Hogan is right the DSLR will become more and more video-centric every year and because of this there might just be a shift in shape which could occur at around the time the last SLR film user will die.
(I find his illustrations funny though. The computer monitor coming before the SD card.)
How about the DSLR itself will it ever die? For now I can only see one possible death for the medium. But it might be a decade before this happens. It will come via improved sophisticated full frame video-captures, when people will just be pulling stills from a video run. When this happens the mirror becomes obsolete. Whether the 4/3 sensors or the apsc will get there first it hardly mattes. There will always be a use for big cameras specially if thing get totally video-centric.
How about the cell phones? It has killed already, in terms of practicality and functionality, the telegram, the beeper and the wristwatch (which is more fashion accessory now more than ever). Before the cell phone crushes the malls with the advance of online shopping it will run down the 3x zoom compact. I doubt if a usable cellphone super-zoom camera (say 24-350mm) will arrive within the next five years.
Samsung will most likely lead the phone camera revolution. Unless Steve Jobs dies and will be replaced by a photography geek CEO the American cult gadget, apple (i-phone, i-pad, i-whatnot) will not in the forefront.
@Seb:
Compact with big sensor (I mean non-interchangeable camera with big sensor) makes absolutely no sense.
Buy a mirrorless camera and use it consistently with exactly one lens – and you have a “compact with big sensor”. 😀
NB. developing full frame mirrorless cameras is just a matter of time.
There is an error in the graph. Cell phones and mirrorless didn’t start from zero at the same time. When the first mirrorless camera came out (the G1) a lot of people had been using cell phone cameras for several years already.
@kesztió
Apparently Leica and sigma don’t think the same. Their was a market during the anologue days for high end PS camera, as their was one for mirrorless interchangeable cameras, i don’t know why this would change in the digital era.
Haven’t read the article yet, but I agree with the conclusion. Mobile phones are going to swallow all small sensor cameras except superzooms, while DSLRs will become tools for professionals and those with special photo needs.
I’ll disagree – mobile phones with cameras have been commonplace for what, 5 years? Barring major improvements in both image quality & interface, cell-phone cameras will continue being what they’ve been for the past 5 years – a fun little gimmick that people play around with when they don’t really care about the picture.
Furthermore, micro4/3rds has disappointed those hoping for a better pocket camera. It’s just not that small, particularly with the zoom lens that most people prefer.
There’s always going to be people looking for a good camera they can put in their pocket. I’m not a huge fan of digital P&S cameras (after my last one broke I didn’t buy a replacement), but neither cell-phone cameras or micro 4/3rds are a real alternative.
Did this really get presented to corporate big-wigs? It seems like something that got posted on an internet forum years ago.